WNBA 2024
angel reese is giving Caitlin Clark a run for rookie of the year
Here to acknowledge that Clark will will ROY. I lost money on this. I was wrong. You guys were right. Thank you.
Otherwise enjoying the WNBA talk ITT. ✌��
Ponytail Cait
PC for short
How about Supergirl ?
Her everyday identity is Caitlyn Clark but on the court she transforms into her true identity as Supergirl.
shout out to A'ja Wilson for becoming the first WNBA player to score 1,000+ pts in a season today. and she's done it by shooting over 50% from the floor.
Indiana is locked in to the 6 seed
Phoenix is locked in to the 7 seed
Washington, Chicago and Atlanta are all tied for the 8 seed with 2 games left at 13-25
Wash holds the 3-1 tiebreak over Chicago
Wash and Atlanta are tied 2-2. Next tiebreak is conf wins. Wash has 6 (both games v NY and v Ind are conf games) and ATL has 5 (both games v Chi and @ NY are conf games). So in any world where they end up tied, Washington will get the tiebreak
Chicago is up 2-1 over ATL with @ ATL and @ Conn left and also has 5 conf wins
If ATL beats Chicago, Chicago is dead. If Wash matches wins, they win all tiebreaks
If Chicago betas ATL, ATL is dead. if Wash matches wins, they win all tiebreaks
Wash vs Indiana, Indiana is not playing for anything and may rest starters
NY will be playing for something against Wash, but if they win that game, they are not playing for anything against ATL
If Conn loses to Minn (+1.5) and Vegas wins, then Conn will need to beat Chi to hold off Vegas so decent chance they are trying in that game. Also if Conn BEATS Minn, then they are playing to jump Minn
If Liberty win a game, they lock up the 1. If they lose both and Minn wins both, Minn jumps them
If Minn wins a game, they lock up at least the 2. if they lose @ Conn and then vs LA and Conn also beats Chi, they get jumped for the 2 and fall to 3
If Conn loses both to Minn and vs Chicago, and Vegas wins @ Seattle and vs Dallas, Vegas jumps Conn for the 3
If Seattle beats Vegas, then Seattle wins the tiebreak and jumps Vegas for the 4 (unless Vegas then beats Dallas and Seattle loses @ Phoenix)
So, a lot can change (but probably won't) over the last 2 games
thanks golden! 👍
Sunday and Thursday are rare days where the entire league is in action.
The league is now on social media teasing even further expansion
1. NY
2. MN
3-5 tbd
6. Indy
7. Phoenix
8 Atl/Wash
Washington loses the potential double lottery pick now, honestly a pretty huge punt.
Chicago is technically alive if they hit a 3 game parlay:
Chicago beats Conn (who needs to win to hold off Vegas)
Washington loses to Indiana (who is playing for nothing and should rest all starters)
Atlanta loses to NYL (who is playing for nothing and should rest all starters)
Unless Chicago > Conn and Vegas somehow loses at home to Dallas, then the order is set:
1 NYL
8 ATL/WAS
4 Vegas
5 Seattle
2 Minnesota
7 Phoenix
3 Connecticut
6 Indiana
I have:
NYL 93% to win R1
Vegas 78% to win R1
Min 86% to win R1
Con 75% to win R1
I have:
NYL 60% to win R2
ATL/WAS 12% to win R2
Vegas 49% to win R2
Seattle 25% to win R2
Con 41% to win R2
Indiana 34% to win R2
Minnesota 64% to win R2
Phoenix 25% to win R2
So my finals odds are:
NYL 55%
Vegas 38%
Seattle 5%
Atlanta 1%
Minnesota 57%
Connecticut 31%
Indiana 8%
Phoenix 4%
The best lines across books right now are:
NYL +160
Vegas +260
Min +340
Conn +1100
Indiana +2500
Seattle +2800
Phx +10000
ATL +30000
Was +55000
This adds up to 106% so there is still decent juice
Given my numbers, that implies:
NYL is 70% to win the title if they make the final (I have 70%)
Min is 40% to win the title if they make the final (I have 40%)
Con is 27% to win the title if they make the final (I have 33%, so I may be overestimating them a bit)
Seattle is 64% to win the title if they make the final (obviously they are not, which means some of the juice is baked in here)
Indiana is 46% to win the title if they make the final (obviously they are not, which means that unsurprisingly, a bunch of juice is baked in here)
Vegas is 64% to win the title if they make the final (they will not have HCA against Conn/Minn)
PHX is 28% to win the title if they make the final (seems plausible that a version of PHX that upsets both Minn and Conn is 28% against Vegas/NYL)
+340 for Lynx seems pretty good, given they were clearly better than NY and LV h2h, including 3-0 post-Olympics.
dallas -4.5 at LV?????
apparently the Aces are resting their entire starting lineup.
Still, taking the Aces M/L most likely w/ some random tourists off the street in the lineup vs. dallas seems slightly +EV.
You probably know better than the book
i'll crossbook with you for a vig free ml
circa has -170/150 - split the difference at -160?
my 160 to your 100?
Thanks rickroll but I will pass.
I already have a $20 m/l bet on the Aces at +160 from my local brick and mortar. that'll satisfy my WNBA betting itch for today....
rip, guess you were right, any randos off the street will crush these wings
The Wings are self-destructing
My GF and me r heading out to enjoy my mild winnings at the local bar (w/good food) a short walk away from here...
just wanted to post my happiness vs. peeps who thought that laying chalk with a s**t team vs. the WNBA champs was a great bet. LOL u, do better next time.
Excited to toast my next beer (in a big draft iced glass) to the Aces! they've treated us to a little extra 2nite....
wp
First Team
A. Wilson
B. Stewart
N. Collier
A. Thomas
C. Clark
Second Team
J. Jones
S. Ionescu
N. Ogwumike
A. Ogunbowale
D. Bonner
Third Team
J. Young
K. McBride
B. Jones
S. Diggins-Smith
J. Loyd
Pretty close to what I'd have, I think Nneka>AT
McBride 2nd team, Arike 3rd, Mitchell 3rd, Loyd off
