NCAA FOOTBALL 2024 MEGA THREAD - WELCOME TO THE PLAYOFF ERA

Fairly clear to me SEC top tier is getting hurt by the NIL stuff. This season SEC had at least 6 teams roughly on par with each other. I can't remember when that ever happened.

We understood the assignment, don't worry.

This isn’t short rest though, this is normal rest vs a team with 2 extra days. In college, you normally use 1 point (3% with spreads this tight) for an entire extra week and that’s when they know their next opponent already. Personally I don’t usually add anything for two days extra unless “normal rest” team has some unique scheme that’s hard to prepare for like a service academy or a 2-5 defense. I don’t think I could talk myself up to 1/2 point here.

So I really shouldn’t worry then?

Game was super physical for ND in a way that BSU wasn’t for Penn State.

I don’t see the point of showing a picture post-collision, lol.

What I found the most shocking was no flag on the field; you may disagree it was actually targeting in the final analysis, but in the course of ~500 games I watched this year I don’t recall a single hard hit involving a receiver and helmets “smacking like coconuts” that didn’t draw a flag, let alone a defenseless one. 9/10 times overturned and replay shows him tilting his head away and making incidental contact with his earhole or something and the wr’s head snapped back only because of the body blow. Here his head obviously snapped back because he had a helmet driven through it. I mean maybe they were in crunch-time-let-‘em-play-don’t-call-penalties mode but that is the definition of inconsistency and a very bad look.

As to the antiSEC victory tour, much like last year’s exuberance for North Carolina’s natty chances, I say “let them have their fun”. Lord knows they’ve waited long enough.

About this? No. About Penn State having receivers who can catch the ball after ND was pretty much torched by a first time starting qb if not for the numerous inexplicable drops, and having a running game that overmatches their normal defense at the same time? Certainly.

I don't bet college much. But in NFL a bye week adds almost 5% WE according to my calcs.

If this were an NFL game at pick I'd shade the 9 day rested team no less than 2%, or about 9c. So fair line would be close to -1, as NFL push frequency for 1 pt win is about 2.5%.

IMO these 2 games compare more to NFL than your typical college game.

I recommend celebrating hard and fast, because if there is one guarantee in this life after death and taxes it's that the ESS EEE CEE booster bubbas will find a way to game the new system just as effectively as they did the old one. Just give them a little time.

I agree that the non call was surprising. And it took a while real time to initiate the review.

It seems the default in these playoff games is to let them play as much as possible without blatant fouls.

Nah brah. What we saw from 2006-22 will never happen again. Everyone is paying players now. The SEC will still be a top tier conference like the Big Ten cuz resources but their singular dominance of the sport is over forever.

"Everything will change. Everything has changed."

Why is that? I mean I know it's better teams than usual but why would that affect points off bye, particularly since college teams have a tendency to schedule byes before their biggest games?

It's pretty well established a bye week is much more valuable in the nfl (which I rarely bet) and it makes sense to me given you have star players in their 30s and an average age around 27 plus the whole bigger and fatter thing. In college the 1 point standard leads to 50 - 51% ATS rates so pretty much is what it is given lol sample size.

There is of course virtually no data, anywhere, on late season one-sided bye weeks before neutral site games with tight point spreads (even these last 2 which were really 3 weeks' rest). But they're still college players and since we *have* to guess, I'm just occam's razoring that it's the usual. Just my opinion.

A few reasons:
1. NFL game totals are typically lower than college totals;

2. NFL game spreads are typically lower than college spreads;

3. NFL push frequencies around the median margin of victory are typically higher than college. (i.e. NFL teasers are better)

UGA #39 has entered the portal

I wonder what took him so long?
Maybe his mom grounded him and took away his phone and internet.

life comes at you fast

poor kid

i'm sure there's plenty of nil money out there for a white cb without a single snap of college game tape.

I'm watching a Little Texases game right now featuring a freshman qb who played db last year and hasn't started as a qb since 9th grade. So a solid chance.

I don't know why teams don't use their timeouts before the 2:00 warning. It's the old rules and comparatively easy to stop the clock after it.

As if the OSUs et al weren't paying them as well. The difference is the cost as gone way up so only the rich schools that are willing to pay $16 million + can play. Or do you think Caleb Downs moved to OSU from Alabama because he thought OSU was a better school? OSU has according to most estimates has 10 players or more getting $1 million + each. BSU spends significantly under that for their entire team. I hope this destroys NCAAF as minor league football with appropriate minor league sports salaries. Focus on the teams that are still college athletes rather than mercenaries for hire.

SEC is a basketball conference now.

Man, Kirby smart basically has the worst possible CFP experience

Brutal

Kirby Smart’s father died today after a fall in New Orleans :(

Talk about a bad few days ...
RIP