NCAA FOOTBALL 2024 MEGA THREAD - WELCOME TO THE PLAYOFF ERA

These are no longer college students out there fighting for their schools. These are highly compensated employees out there risking injury for ???

It seems to me that their employers' should be able to figure out a solution pretty easily.

hope u guys got some $ down

Related note... anybody wants to buy some UNLV, Iowa State or UGA at fair value let me know. I have some hedging to do

Notre Dame is idle until playoffs. Do they get a bye after conference championship games are finished? Are they a top 4 team for seeding purposes?

As long as ND remains independent, they will never have a chance at a top 4 playoff spot receiving a bye. Those are reserved for the top 4 conference champions, regardless of official seed.

So I guess ND's "bye" can be viewed as being selected for the CFP but not having to play a championship game.

Byes in the playoffs are reserved for conference champions

So this is my best guess of how things could shake out

if UNLV > Boise, then UNLV fills in Boise's spot except where Boise > Clemson, I would assume Clemson > UNLV

Obviously blowouts in the CCGs can change a lot. In particular, if SMU gets blown out, I think they may drop, but if they keep it close, they stay in.

I think the SEC/B1G order is fairly clear. If Oregon wins they are 1 no matter what. If Texas and PSU win, it's 1 Tex 2 PSU. If UGA wins, they are always 2

Oregon is 5 whenever they lose, else it's ND. Some chance that if Texas loses close, they could be 5 and ND 6

SMU is always 3 when they win. I think B12 winner has to be 4, but the committee has had this crazy love affair with Boise as they continue to beat sub-100 opponents

I would think PSU that loses is behind OSU (same # of losses, H2H) but given how bad that Michigan loss was, it wouldn't be crazy to see them flopped

I think Tenn is right in front of OSU in most scenarios

I think Indiana follows them. Would be weird to have Indiana ahead of an OSU team that beat it so thoroughly, and OSU I think is behind Tenn

One I'm really not sure about is PSU that loses vs Indiana. I think PSU is ahead but if they get whomped that could flop

I think 3 loss UGA is behind Indiana, just from the sheer 3 >>> 1 and committee seems addicted to sort by losses

For the final spot, everybody seems to assume it's Bama, and I also think it should be Bama, but committee is addicted to sort by losses so maybe it's Miami, idk

ND can only ever top out at #5 as other have said, but thats kinda brilliant as the 5 spot has a super easy road to the semis in most cases

added UNLV

corrected for the fact that if Boise wins, they'll be ahead of bama/miami so they'd actually have the 11 seed not 12

the 5th and 6th scenarios have two first round rematches, osu/indiana and tenn/uga in the 89 and 7/10

tenn and osu are so close, it would make sense to switch then 7 and 8 to create two new matchups, but not sure if they'd do that. more likely they'd take uga who just lost and slot them in at 9 ahead of indiana and avoid it that way

Curious to see if the CFP says "let's go B1G/SEC in the 1st round for interesting matchups or just go B1G/B1G SEC/SEC rematch in the hopes of nearly locking in a B1G/SEC (or ND) title game

Apparently the committee groups teams by 3 then 3 then 3 then 4 then 4 then 4 then 4.

As mentioned ND cannot make the top 4. The 1st round begins Dec 20, so they do get 3 weeks off just like the conference champions will get. The 4 conference champs will need to win 3 neutral site games in a row. ND will probably get a home game favored by a touchdown or more, and then be on the same footing.

Conference championship losers who make the field will have only one bye week.

Army or Navy who made the field outside the top 4 would have no bye week.

Row 15 has two entries for smu.

Plus, ND never has to play a CCG. Home playoff game in cold Dec >>>> playing a conference championship game every time.

Thanks for all the work you do in the thread GB

5 seed is the best spot in the whole tourney most years

usually you will get to play a home game against a G5 team, then you will get to play neutral against the worst P4 champ

this year because the committee has some bizarre love affair for Boise and their "quality loss," the 12 seed will probably be Bama / Miami / Clemson / SMU if Boise wins.

If UNLV wins, then they scoot into the 12 and the 5 seed gets to face UNLV and then either Clemson or ASU/ISU

Would much rather have that then having a bye then a neutral site game against the 8/9 winner

6 seed is also sweet this year, looking at a similar lineup

First of all and most obviously, you're straight up more likely to make the semifinals playing UNLV at home followed by ASU/ISU neutral than you are vs UGA neutral or something.

Second of all, a lot of teams could use the emotional and visibility lift of winning at least 1 playoff game. It doesn't matter to the Alabamas and the Georgias of the world, but for a team like Notre Dame who made the BCS title once and the playoffs twice and got curb stomped every time, winning a playoff game (especially against a P4 team like Miami or Clemson) would be a tangible step in the right direction

Same for Indiana, SMU, ASU and ISU (obviously) - winning a single playoff game keeps the in the conversation, legitimizes them for next couple of years and probably gives a huge recruiting boost.

Their fans will deny it, but the same is true for Penn State and Tennessee and Miami - none of them have been remotely relevant to the national title in 25+ years, longer than any of these kids have been alive. Winning a game or two would be a big deal.

The whole scene was ****ing beautiful. Can't imagine a more perfect ending. We broke them.

Tbf we don't care about football the way they do. It's an insane culture in Columbus.

All I know is when that Michigan team beats THAT Ohio State super-roster pepper spray and blood is the only appropriate ending.

Any chance Army could jump UNLV if both win?

I don't think there's any chance there since UNLV is currently higher in the CFP and both winning means they'd have to beat #11 Boise St. and Army would have to beat a Tulane team that just got its 3rd loss

No chance whatsoever, even if Army wins by 100 and UNLV wins by 1

UNLV was #22 and will jump ATM and Tulane to be #20

Boise will be #11 or #12

Army was unranked and might continue to be (memphis will be ranked before Army)

Tulane was 17 and might fall out of the rankings

No way the 24th (at best) team playing the 23rd (at best) team jumps over the 20th team who beats the 11th team

Also, power ratings wise, UNLV > Army

UNLV is 44 in sagarin, Army is 63

UNLV is 30 in sp+, Army is 38

my Vegas ratings have UNLV 36, Army 52

Rats.

Thanks for the analysis though.

Tonight's rankings:

1 through 5 will be

1 Oregon
2 Texas
3 Penn State
4 Notre Dame
5 Georgia

Next will come Ohio State, Tennessee, SMU and Indiana in some order.

2 OSU (lost at home to Michigan 13-10)
8 Tennessee (won at Vandy 36-23)
9 SMU (won vs Cal 38-6)
10 Indiana (won vs Purdue 66-0, allowing 67 total yards)

Related games:
-all 3 of OSU's key games (wins over psu and indiana to get to 11-1, loss to oregon who improved to 12-0) won

-The SEC will have NINE ranked teams, but Tennesse only beat 1 of them. That team (Alabama) won. It's two losses, UGA won but Arkansas lost again to sink to 6-6

-SMU's lone loss (BYU) won again to stay ranked. Their lone possible ranked win (Louisville) romped Kentucky to improve to 8-4

-Indiana's best win (7-5) Michigan won while their only loss (Ohio State) lost

OSU is the best of the four teams and has by far the best overall resume, even with the Michigan loss. Tennessee lost to one good team and one bad team. OSU lost to one good team (who is better than Tenn's good loss) and lost to one bad team (who is better than Tenn's bad loss), and also has two wins better than Tenn's best win.

The AP goes:
Tenn
OSU
SMU
Indy

The Coaches go:
Tenn
SMU!
OSU
Indy

There's no way OSU drops below an Indy team they thrashed, and I think the CFP will look at OSU's obviously superior overall body of work and also good power rating and go:

OSU
Tenn
SMU
Indy

Although they do have a strong recency bias and the vibes around OSU are awful right now in a way they wouldn't be had they lost to Washington or something

In most of the possible scenarios, there's not a huge diff between the OSU/Tenn ranking anyway. They're very likely to end up as 8 and 7 seeds (some chance 8 and 9 where it determines HFA, some chance 6), so they're both going to get to host a playoff game and then play a tough SEC/B1G opponent in the second round

SMU's positioning matters a ton. Their chance of getting dropped out with a ACCCG loss is much lower if they manage to secure the 7 rank instead of 8, but it only matters if they lose to Clemson. If they beat the Clemson, they will have the 3 seed regardless of where they're ranked this week

10:
Boise is probably still 10, but how close are ASU and ISU? Both scored huge victories (ASU winning on the road at Arizona by a thousand, ISU beating ranked Kansas State). I am of the strong opinion that yet another ranked win for the B12 winner will cause them to jump Boise, but UNLV is really helping Boise's chances of staying ahead by continuing to win

Then, the biggest question of the whole show will be:

Who is ranked 1st and 2nd among Alabama, South Carolina , Ole Miss and Miami?

Last week:
6 Miami
13 Alabama
14 Ole Miss
15 South Carolina

AP had 8 Miami, 13 Bama, 15 Ole Miss, 16 South Carolina
Coaches had 7 Miami, 13 Bama 14 USCe, 16 Ole Miss

So, committee was higher on Miami last week than both Coaches and AP

This week AP and Coaches obliterated Miami:

AP: 11 Bama 13 USCe 14 Miami 15 Ole miss
Coaches: 11 Bama 12 USCe 14 Miami, 15 Ole Miss

Bama:
PRO: by far the best set of wins
four ranked wins - beat Georgia, South Carolina h2h, @ LSU by 29 and Mizzou 34-0
CON: two bad losses, @ 6-6 Vandy by 5, and @ 6-6 Oklahoma 24-3, the latter of which was the second to last game

USCe:
PRO: hot. 6 wins in a row
3 ranked wins, ATM, Mizzou, @ Clemson
no horrible losses. Lost to LSU and Bama in nail biters that they easily could've / should've won, and to Ole Miss who is also good
CON: They literally lost to Ole Miss and Alabama and have the same record

Ole Miss:
PRO: All 3 losses were close (Bama and USCe both got bown out once)
2 ranked wins, including actually blowing out UGA
H2H vs UCSe
CON: worst set of wins, and like Bama, lost to two bad teams, though both were close

Miami:
PRO: They lost 2 games and all the others lost 3! 2 Is fewer than 3! The committee really seems to sort by losses EVEN MORE than the AP/Coaches which is crazy
But, that's a really important pro!
They beat Florida 41-17, the same team that beat Ole Miss
Both of their losses are nail biters on the road to decent (9-3 and 7-5) teams
CON:
Lost 2 of their last 3 games!
Zero ranked wins!
Their 3 best wins other than UF (@ Louisville, @ Cal, v Virginia Tech) are not even that great, and also all 3 were 1 score wins and 2 of them required absolute miracles

IMO it SHOULD be:

Bama
South Carolina
Miami
Ole Miss

And that's what my best guess of what it WILL be is:

Bama
Miami
South Carolina
Ole Miss

I would not be super shocked to see Miami at the top (they're around +1000 to make it right now and think that's probably a good bet) just bc of how much more the committee has liked them all season and how much the committee sorts by losses.

It doesn't matter who is 2nd or 3rd thogh, only one of those 4 teams can get in to the playoffs

If SMU wins, whoever is 1st gets in

If SMU loses close, Clemson jumps in and takes the last spot. My guess is SMU stays ranked ahead of all 4 of those teams by virtue of their extra win and "not punishing them for playing a conf champ game"

If SMU gets taken to the woodshed, then they probably drop out, and whoever is 1st in line goes again.

Also, say it's Miami then Bama and SMU wins, allowing Miami to slide in.

Then say somehow Texas beats UGA by 30 and UGA looks like an absolute dumpster fire

You'd have 10-3 UGA vs 9-3 Bama who BEAT THEM H2H

Would be an interesting spot

Also, if some teams are playing for conference titles on Saturday, no reason everybody else can't be playing too!

Would be so great if there was some czar that had the right to schedule games out of thin air... Just make Miami play @ Bama for the final spot!