NCAA FOOTBALL 2024 MEGA THREAD - WELCOME TO THE PLAYOFF ERA

UNLV’s quarterback could break his leg.

easy to find some truth in this statement
coming from someone with a strong dislike for both teams

BAMA last team in, MIA first team out.

If Clemson beats SMU or UNLV beats Boise St, there will be much more fun.

Playoffs in general are good, but THIS particular playoff format is idiotic.

South Carolina no was free money

Yeah, went allin there as well

Boise losing to UNLV makes things more orderly, actually. Boise is a billion percent out and UNLV is locked in to the 12 which means the B12 gets a bye no matter what and Clemson also gets a bye

If Boise and Clemson win, Boise and B12 get byes and Clemson is 12

If Boise and SMU win, SMU is obviously the 3, but it's not clear whether the 4 will be Boise or B12. This whole time I had assumed that the committee wasn't stupid enough to keep Boise ahead of the B12 champ, but it now looks like they will.

It is absolutely idiotic that the committee has Boise as high as they do. It's just so easy not to be stupid and the committee refuses to do it.

My kind of committee quote:

Seems fair; Shoulda’ scheduled Mercer, lol.

Math is idiotic

The pepper spray was highly inappropriate.

So, obviously Miami is dead

The remaining questions are:

1.
If SMU loses to Clemson, who goes, SMU or Bama? Right now books are pricing it close to 50/50

2.
How far does PSU drop if they lose to Oregon? I was right that the committee would respect OSU's overall body of work and go OSU > Tenn even though the polls were different.

I am confident PSU will not end up ONE slot ahead of OSU if they lose. I also do not think they will drop past Indiana

I think they will most likely fall either 1 spot behind or 2: OSU PSU Tenn or OSU Tenn PSU

There is a small chance they are TWO spots ahead, 5 PSU 6 ND 7 OSU

3.
How far will UGA fall if they lose? They will be 10-3, and the committee has absolutely disrespected their resume all year

My guess is they fall all the way to 10, behind OSU, TENN and 11-1 Indiana. It's possible the committee could really overindex on the whole "don't punish teams for losing in the CGs" thing and drop them just one spot past OSU but keep them ahead of Tennessee who they beat H2H. But if they drop past Tennessee, will they really stay ahead of Indiana who has TWO fewer losses? Certainly possible, but I don't think so.

4.
If Boise and SMU win, who gets the 4 seed, B12 or Boise?

I could write a thousand words (and probably will) about how stupid it is that Boise is ranked as high as they are. The committee has Boise at 10 and ISU and ASU buried down at 15 and 16, one spot ahead of Clemson. Thats just way too much to overcome.

If Boise and SMU win it will be:
3 SMU
4 Boise
12 B12

If Boise and Clemson win it will be:
3 Boise
4 B12
12 Clemson

If UNLV and SMU win it will be:
3 SMU
4 B12
12 UNLV

If UNLV and Clemson win it will be:
3 B12
4 Clemson
12 UNLV

Here is my current scenario map

Notre Dame is in incredible shape:
They will host Boise, UNLV, Clemson, Alabama or SMU
Then they will play SMU, Boise or a B12 team

Oregon is in good shape too:
They'll probably get the 1 seed and play either Tenn, PSU or Indiana which is not bad, then play either ND or a B12/Boise/Clemson team
If they lose, they'll take the 5 seed and host UNLV or Bama/Clemson, then play B12/Boise/Clemson

Indiana, Penn State and Tennessee all have pretty shitty draws

Texas has some incredibly good paths (6 seed hosting Boise then playing SMU)
and some not so great paths (mostly when they get the 7 seed and have to play Indiana then UGA for the third time)

Bama would be the freest money available in that scenario.

GoldenBears - honest question. If UNLV beats Boise St. - do you really think it is 100% they make the CFP?

I honestly don't think so....I think the CFP committee will invent a reason to exclude UNLV in favor of a more "well known" team.

The top 5 conference champions make it in regardless of ranking.

Top 5 conf champs are in (top 4 get byes), so that gives us:

B1G champ: ORE/PSU (winner gets a bye, but both are already in and taking up spots)

SEC Champ: TEX/UGA (Same)

ACC Champ: CLEM/SMU (This one is fun. If SMU wins, they get a bye. If CLEM wins, they're in with a bye AND SMU is a flip to get in which bumps BAMA)

Big12: ASU/ISU (Winner is in, loser is out)

MAC: MIA(OH)/OHIO (Lol, no chance)

CUSA: JAXst./WKU (Lol, no chance)

SBC: MARSH/LOU (Lol, no chance)

AAC: ARMY/TUL (Sadly, no chance for Army even if they win because...)

MWC: UNLV/Boise St. (Winner is in as one of the 5 highest rated conf. champs)

UNLV is win-and-in by rule. Simple as that

As the two posters above said, the top-5 conference winners receive an auto-bid which ensures at least 1 non P4 champ will go every year

If UNLV beats Boise State, there is a 100.00000% chance that UNLV will be the one getting that bid

They will almost certainly end up as the 12 seed as every other team in the playoffs is already ranked higher than them.

revising my projections

I still think that if PSU loses, they will be behind OSU, but rather than a flip, I am now more convinced that they will be ahead of Tennessee

I also had UGA dropping past OSU, Tennessee and Bama with a loss. Vegas seems to think they'll stay ahead of all 3

I now think the most likely is actually that they drop past OSU, but stay in front of Tennessee (with H2H) and therefore also stay in front of Indiana

This essentially locks Indiana into the 10 seed, arguably the worst seed in the field, and locks Tennessee into the 9

However this logic also frequently produces 8/9 game of uga/tenn and an 7/10 game of osu/indiana

they've already said that they won't flop tenn/indiana, so that means they'd keep UGA in front of OSU to avoid rematches

Vegas also seems to think that Texas and PSU often stay ahead of ND with a loss, which I find hard to believe. Texas maybe, especially if it's close, but it's not like Texas' resume is super stellar

The committee seems big on locking teams next to certain teams they beat or lost to. So Georgia one ahead of Tennessee makes sense otherwise they may drop to below bama (which seems unlikely) based on head to head with each.

So I'd guess they drop behind OSU. So OSU then Penn State then Georgia then Tennessee if Penn State and Georgia lose.

In that regard if they want to drop smu they just drop them behind Clemson.

CUSA CCG; Both have been pretty bad the last few games--WKU straight-up bad until last week. Huff is starting for Jax which would be great except his last couple of games like 3/11 for 37 yards and a pick before getting knocked out (granted 97 yards rushing, but just in case you need to pass).

I've got WKU +3 1st half but mainly watching for ingame spots.

Go Army!

Really goofy play when the Tulane kicker saw the snap and was like, nah, not even gonna try to kick.

TROOPS doing good work early

I like going for it on 4th down there but not sure why you pitch to the short side of the field.

UNLV can't get a 1st down or a stop...this sucks

Tulane looks miserable.

That's funny--you should see me watching this game.

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