NCAA FOOTBALL 2024 MEGA THREAD - WELCOME TO THE PLAYOFF ERA
Just 8 days until Florida State plays Georgia Tech!
A lot happened while you were away:
Texas and Oklahoma joined the SEC
The Pac-12 went out in a blaze of glory:
Oregon, Washington, USC and UCLA are headed to the B1G
Utah, Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado are headed to the B12
Cal and Stanford along with SMU are somehow headed to the ACC
Poor old Wazzu and Oregon State are now aligned with the MWC in some sort of in-flux relationship
The conferences are huge now, and the schedules are wildly imbalanced. Florida might have the hardest schedule in the history of the sport, while Missouri's playing a sun-belt slate.
FSU and Clemson play each other, but then play ZERO common ACC opponents
Utah/Baylor and Arizona/Kansas State play non-conference games against conference opponents
LSU and USC play in Vegas!
Boise goes to Oregon, a team they've never lost to!
Texas at Michigan!
Alabama at Wisconsin!
Notre Dame at ATM!
Clemson vs Georgia!
And there are some incredibly juicy new conference matchups:
Texas @ ATM is back!
Texas vs Georgia
Oregon vs Ohio State
USC @ Michigan
USC vs Penn State
And then the bizarre:
UCLA @ Rutgers is now a conference game
Syracuse plays home and away against Cal and Stanford for some reason
Half the teams have new coaches, transferred quarterbacks, or both!
Let's get it on!
SMU appears to be getting worse. Is this place elevation?
Too bad for my props that pass interference doesn't count towards passing yards...
LOL SMU, seriously?
Also wtf is up with Montana St. getting bet up to a 13.5 road fav today? NO ONE covers like Bronco Mendenhall as a home dog!!!!
Still playing in Hawaii.
One year a replay at something like 4am EST was actually a live game from a lightening delay.
THURSDAY
North Carolina A&T 2024-08-29 19:00:00 35
Wake Forest 2024-08-29 19:00:00 -35
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 2024-08-29 19:30:00 48.5
Arkansas 2024-08-29 19:30:00 -48.5
Murray State 2024-08-29 20:00:00 48
Missouri 2024-08-29 20:00:00 -48
Coastal Carolina 2024-08-29 20:00:00 2.5
Jacksonville State 2024-08-29 20:00:00 -2.5
JVS was one of the luckiest teams in the country last year, while CC looks to rebuild after the Grayson McCall era (he's still in CFB, he just plays for NC State now)
North Carolina 2024-08-29 20:00:00 -1.5
Minnesota 2024-08-29 20:00:00 1.5
ACC and B1G don't play many games this year, so these weird, level-setting games between middling teams end up being somewhat important. Honestly couldn't tell you three things about either team
North Dakota State +10
Colorado -10
Love him or hate him, I guarantee you'll be watching. Prime Year 2 starts off with a tricky one, perennial FCS power NDST who lost in the semis last year (and also lost their coach). Can't wait to see the NARRATIVES the media runs with on this one.
Southern Utah 2024-08-29 21:00:00 38
Utah 2024-08-29 21:00:00 -38
FRIDAY
Florida Atlantic 2024-08-30 19:00:00 14
Michigan State 2024-08-30 19:00:00 -14
Gambling hilarity is already upon us, as Aidan Chiles told people to "bet the over" ... and then they did! The Jonathan Smith era starts at MSU, seems like a great fit on paper based on what he was able to build at a similar "blue collar" program.
Temple 2024-08-30 19:00:00 43
Oklahoma 2024-08-30 19:00:00 -42.5
Elon 2024-08-30 19:30:00 23.5
Duke 2024-08-30 19:30:00 -23.5
Western Michigan 2024-08-30 21:00:00 24.5
Wisconsin 2024-08-30 21:00:00 -24
TCU 2024-08-30 22:30:00 -9
Stanford 2024-08-30 22:30:00 9.5
Stanford was horrible last year, but returns almost their entire team. It's year 2 for coach Taylor, and I suspect they're somewhat underrated (not GOOD, mind you, just not 3.5 wins bad).
SATURDAY
Clemson 2024-08-31 12:00:00 13.5
Georgia 2024-08-31 12:00:00 -13.5
You guys know what's up here. UGA is stacked as usual, furious that they were denied the chance to 3peat. Clemson took no transfers once again, and Dabo is out to prove that his ways still work. with FSU losing in the opener, Clemson has the inside track in the ACC now, but has three tough OOC games - Georgia, South Carolina and App State.
Virginia Tech 2024-08-31 12:00:00 -13.5
Vanderbilt 2024-08-31 12:00:00 13.5
One of a dozen or so ACC/SEC clashes, this one will count in the scoreboard but not for much else. VT is a popular dark horse pick, came on late last year and returned almost their entire team.
Penn State 2024-08-31 12:00:00 -8.5
West Virginia 2024-08-31 12:00:00 8.5
Arguably the Big-12's only realistic chance of scoring a marquee OOC victory, a ton is riding on this game. Garrett Greene is long on moxie, and WV isn't bursting with NFL level talent but has lots of solid, good college players. Drew Allar has yet to live up to the hype at Penn State, but they still have the two studs in the backfield and a spectacular defense. Atmosphere in Morgantown should be electric.
Kent 2024-08-31 12:00:00 24
Pittsburgh 2024-08-31 12:00:00 -23.5
Austin Peay 2024-08-31 12:00:00 36.5
Louisville 2024-08-31 12:00:00 -36.5
Illinois State 2024-08-31 12:00:00 22.5
Iowa 2024-08-31 12:00:00 -22.5
UConn 2024-08-31 12:00:00 20.5
Maryland 2024-08-31 12:00:00 -20.5
Indiana State 2024-08-31 12:00:00 32.5
Purdue 2024-08-31 12:00:00 -32.5
UT-Chattanooga 2024-08-31 12:45:00 38.5
Tennessee 2024-08-31 12:45:00 -38.5
South Dakota State 2024-08-31 14:00:00 10
Oklahoma State 2024-08-31 14:00:00 -10
The FCS champion Jackrabbits take on headline-friendly Gundy and the dark horse Cowboys. Why on earth you would schedule this game, I have no idea.
Portland State 2024-08-31 15:00:00 30.5
Washington State 2024-08-31 15:00:00 -30.5
Kennesaw State 2024-08-31 15:30:00 24.5
UTSA 2024-08-31 15:30:00 -24.5
Colorado State 2024-08-31 15:30:00 32.5
Texas 2024-08-31 15:30:00 -32.5
Miami 2024-08-31 15:30:00 -2.5
Florida 2024-08-31 15:30:00 2.5
Florida kicks off the toughest schedule in history against new ACC-co favorite Miami. Cam Ward and a bunch of transfers will try to overcome Mario Cristobal's boneheaded decisionmaking
Akron 2024-08-31 15:30:00 50.5
Ohio State 2024-08-31 15:30:00 -50.5
Will Akron score? I don't think so.
Eastern Michigan 2024-08-31 15:30:00 1.5
Massachusetts 2024-08-31 15:30:00 -1.5
Miami (OH) 2024-08-31 15:30:00 2.5
Northwestern 2024-08-31 15:30:00 -2.5
Miami OH won the MAC last year on the backs of a stout defense, and they return Gabbert for his 83rd year. Miami OH plays NW and Cincinnati (and also ND) and is a fringe playoff candidate. If they can post two P4 wins, be competitive at ND and then win the MAC, they've got a shot
Ohio 2024-08-31 15:30:00 17.5
Syracuse 2024-08-31 15:30:00 -17.5
Florida International 2024-08-31 15:30:00 21
Indiana 2024-08-31 15:30:00 -21
UTEP 2024-08-31 15:30:00 27.5
Nebraska 2024-08-31 15:30:00 -27.5
Boise State 2024-08-31 16:00:00 -12.5
Georgia Southern 2024-08-31 16:00:00 13
Boise is the slight favorite for the mid major playoff bid, they start off with a game they should win, but tricky stuff happens in week 1 on the road
Old Dominion 2024-08-31 16:15:00 21
South Carolina 2024-08-31 16:15:00 -20.5
North Texas 2024-08-31 17:00:00 5.5
South Alabama 2024-08-31 17:00:00 -5
Eastern Kentucky 2024-08-31 18:00:00 26.5
Mississippi State 2024-08-31 18:00:00 -26.5
Richmond 2024-08-31 18:00:00 18.5
Virginia 2024-08-31 18:00:00 -18.5
Campbell 2024-08-31 18:00:00 34.5
Liberty 2024-08-31 18:00:00 -34.5
Idaho State 2024-08-31 18:30:00 28.5
Oregon State 2024-08-31 18:30:00 -28.5
Sam Houston 2024-08-31 19:00:00 10
Rice 2024-08-31 19:00:00 -10
Nevada 2024-08-31 19:00:00 9.5
Troy 2024-08-31 19:00:00 -9.5
UNLV 2024-08-31 19:00:00 1.5
Houston 2024-08-31 19:00:00 -1
Western Kentucky 2024-08-31 19:00:00 31.5
Alabama 2024-08-31 19:00:00 -31.5
Furman 2024-08-31 19:00:00 42
Mississippi 2024-08-31 19:00:00 -42
Central Arkansas 2024-08-31 19:00:00 9
Arkansas State 2024-08-31 19:00:00 -9
Fresno State 2024-08-31 19:30:00 21.5
Michigan 2024-08-31 19:30:00 -21.5
Younger readers may not remember the "anybody, anywhere, any time" era of Fresno State football, but the boys from the valley might be feistier than expected against a reloading Michigan team
UCLA 2024-08-31 19:30:00 -14
Hawaii 2024-08-31 19:30:00 14
Notre Dame 2024-08-31 19:30:00 3
Texas A&M 2024-08-31 19:30:00 -2.5
Also known as the "I SWEAR this is our year" bowl
Idaho 2024-08-31 19:30:00 43.5
Oregon 2024-08-31 19:30:00 -43.5
Southern Miss 2024-08-31 19:45:00 28
Kentucky 2024-08-31 19:45:00 -27.5
James Madison 2024-08-31 20:00:00 -6.5
UNC Charlotte 2024-08-31 20:00:00 6.5
Georgia State 2024-08-31 20:00:00 22
Georgia Tech 2024-08-31 20:00:00 -21.5
Houston Christian 2024-08-31 20:00:00 43.5
SMU 2024-08-31 20:00:00 -43.5
New Mexico 2024-08-31 22:30:00 31.5
Arizona 2024-08-31 22:30:00 -30.5
Wyoming 2024-08-31 22:30:00 6.5
Arizona State 2024-08-31 22:30:00 -6.5
Weber State 2024-08-31 23:00:00 27
Washington 2024-08-31 23:00:00 -27
USC 2024-09-01 19:30:00 4.5
LSU 2024-09-01 19:30:00 -4.5
Something about USC and LSU in Las Vegas just feels right. I suspect USC is going to be a lot better than people think this year. Caleb was amazing, but the offense is always going to be great, and they brought in so many 4* transfers and a new DC, it's almost impossible for the defense to be as bad as it was last year.
Boston College 2024-09-02 19:30:00 17
Florida State 2024-09-02 19:30:00 -17
FSU is now 30-28 in ACC play since suing because they thought they were too good for the conference. BC has a chance to do the most hilarious thing ever.
Minnesota / UNC should actually be pretty interesting
Minnesota was bad last year, but returns a ton. UNC loses drake maye, but gets Max Johnson from ATM, keeps Hampton at RB, but has to replace 4 starters on the o-line
Notre Dame 2024-08-31 19:30:00 3
Texas A&M 2024-08-31 19:30:00 -2.5
Also known as the "I SWEAR this is our year" bowl
👍👍👍
I read articles about Conner Weigman. He's certainly better than any of the backups who have had to play when he inevitably has a season ending injury, but I just don't see 1st round potential. But, then again, I never thought Ryan Tannehill would be able to carve out the career he did in the NFL. So what the hell do I know.
Scouting Report: Summary
Weigman possesses the physical traits and arm talent that will have NFL scouts salivating. His ability to extend plays and create outside structure is reminiscent of some of the league's top young QBs. The way he manipulates the pocket and keeps his eyes downfield while under duress is particularly impressive for his experience level.
However, Weigman remains a projection at this stage due to his limited collegiate sample size. His rawness shows up in inconsistent mechanics and decision-making, particularly when forced off his first read. There are flashes of high-level play, but sustained success against Power 5 competition is yet to be seen.
The 2024 season will be crucial for Weigman's draft stock. If he can stay healthy, showcase improved consistency, and thrive in Klein's offense, he has the potential to climb draft boards rapidly. His blend of arm talent, athleticism, and pocket presence gives him a high ceiling, but he'll need to prove he can put it all together on a week-to-week basis.
Current projection: Day 2 pick with first-round upside. Teams will be closely monitoring his development, as Weigman has the tools to become a franchise-altering talent if he can refine the nuances of the position.
A weird thing that's happening this year:
Almost none of the mid-major contenders play middle of the road P4 teams... they're mostly playing elite teams on the road, or in Liberty's case, nobody:
In the AAC:
Memphis plays @ Florida State
UTSA plays @ Texas
Tulane plays @ Oklahoma AND vs K-State
In the MWC:
Boise plays @ Oregon (and against Wazzu and Oregon State, if they count)
Fresno State plays @ Michigan and @ UCLA
In the SBC:
App State plays @ Clemson (and vs Liberty)
In CUSA:
Liberty plays nobody
WKU plays @ Alabama
Feels like if any one of them had had the ability to play like Auburn and Indiana and Pittsburgh or something, they'd have the inside track already
Tulane (vs K-State) and Fresno (@ UCLA) at least have somewhat plausibly winnable games in addition to the road games against elite teams
Some teams like JMU and Miami OH and Texas State and UNLV play beatable teams, but I don't know if those teams are serious contenders
The AAC might be better than the MWC, but the AAC could plausibly go 0-16 against the P4:
Army v ND
Charlotte @ UNC
Charlotte @ Indiana
FAU @ Sparty
Memphis @ FSU
Navy v ND
UNT @ Texas Tech
Rice @ Houston
Temple @ Oklahoma
Tulane v K State
Tulane @ Oklahoma
Tulsa v Oklahoma State
UAB @ Arkansas
USF @ Bama
USF v Miami
UTSA @ Texas
MWC meanwhile, has some actually winnable games:
AFA @ Baylor
Boise @ Oregon
CSU vs Colorado
CS @ Texas
Fresno @ Michigan
Fresno @ UCLA
Hawaii v UCLA
Nevada @ Minnesota
NM @ Arizona
NM @ Auburn
SDSU @ Cal
SJSU v Stanford
UNLV @ Houston
UNLV @ Kansas
UNLV v Syracuse
Utah State @ USC
Utah State v Utah
Wyoming @ ASU
Wyoming v BYU
I love this so much. COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS BACK!!!
of course you would
it is pretty fantastic
Florida is about to be the best 4-win team this nation has ever seen
as good as the fsu d-line?
Nevada 2024-08-31 19:00:00 9.5
Troy 2024-08-31 19:00:00 -9.5
this is the biggest line shift from the openers for Week 1 that I see so far: opened -15.5 and is now down to -8.5. Troy is 100% rebuilding and Nevada-Reno at least showed some competence last week. I guess the value has been bet out of this line (as they say).
best playoff bets:
USC +525 (caesars)
I think USC's upside is under appreciated. The offense is gonna be a great Lincoln Riley offense, and the defense got so many 4* transfers and a new DC that you'd expect them to be at least average, which is a huge step up.
They have four statement games (+4.5 n LSU, +9 @ Michigan, +4.5 v Penn St, +4 v ND), one cakewalk, and then will be a medium favorite in the other 8.
I think they're a lock at 10-2, and have a decent chance to make it at 9-3 especially if they finish strong, something like this:
win n LSU
win v Utah State
lose @ Michigan
lose to Wisconsin
win @ Minnesota
win v Penn State
lose @ Maryland
win v Rutgers
win @ Washington
win v Nebraska
win @ UCLA
win v Notre Dame
losing early at Michigan can't be that bad, and losing @ Maryland 3000 miles away can be written off. They'd have three marquee wins over LSU, Penn State and ND, and especially if ND was 10-1 coming in, this win could jump USC over them.
But mostly, I think USC is probably 2-3 points underrated
Virginia Tech and Iowa State +950
Both of these lines are close to their low-juice lines to win the conference, so you're basically freerolling them making it to the playoff without winning the conference (i.e. going 11-1 and then losing the CCG, or going 10-2 and being left out of the CCG)
VT avoids FSU and plays Clemson at home and Miami on the road. Splitting those and going 9-1 in the other games is probably enough.
Iowa State gets a shot to pick up a decent OOC win against Iowa, but their schedule isn't great, as they play @ Kansas @ Utah v KSU in their final 4 games
Think both teams are also a couple points underrated
Oregon -300 (Draft kings)
Even if I assume Oregon is 3 points worse than their current Vegas rating, I still have them at like 85% to go to the playoffs. They've got 9 games they should very rarely lose, and then v Ohio State (currently -1) , @ Michigan and @ Wisconsin. Win 1 of those 3 you're good.
Miami +225 (Pointsbet)
Just straight up wrong line, hasn't been updated since the FSU loss
I have them at 18% to go 11-1 or 12-0 which gets them in for sure
26% to go 10-2 should probably do it too, but not for sure. They have @ Florida, vs VT, @ Louisville, vs FSU. Splitting those might be enough. Plus again, you've got the chances they go 9-3 but then win the ACC
Scooped up ATM +521, LSU +250, Mizzou +250, NC State +488, OK State +900 early on, don't think those are available any more.
Longshots:
UNLV 60-1 (caesars)
They play 3 winnable games against P4 teams - @ Houston, @ Kansas and v Syracuse. They get Boise State and Fresno State at home, and also play @ Oregon State.
That's six "solid" games, and by winning the conference they'd knock out Boise as the #1 mid major contender. Now all you need is for the AAC to cannibalize itself.
If they go 11-2 with wins over Boise, Syracuse, Fresno and Houston and loses to Boise (reg season) and Oregon State, that resume is better than 13-0 Liberty imo
GT 50-1
The schedule is a doozy, but I think they are very likely to get in at 9-3
They've already beaten FSU and they play Notre Dame, UGA, Louisville, VT, Miami and NC State.
Going 9-3 means they'd have wins over FSU plus three of those six teams for potentially 4 top-25 wins.
I have them at 5.1% to go 9-3 or better (4.3% of that is exactly 9-3 to be fair) so I think this one is decent
UNC 40-1
UNC just plays a ton of decent opponents. Only FSU or NC State really move the needle, but I currently project them as 3.1% to go 11-1 or 12-0. I have them at 10% to go 10-2, and think they'd need a lot of help at 10-2, but the 11-1+ odds are good enough as-is
Longshots:
UNLV 60-1 (caesars)
They play 3 winnable games against P4 teams - @ Houston, @ Kansas and v Syracuse. They get Boise State and Fresno State at home, and also play @ Oregon State.
That's six "solid" games, and by winning the conference they'd knock out Boise as the #1 mid major contender. Now all you need is for the AAC to cannibalize itself.
If they go 11-2 with wins over Boise, Syracuse, Fresno and Houston and loses to Boise (reg season) and Oregon State, that resume is better than 13-0
go UNLV and all but man I wouldn't bet them at 6,000-1. Sure Barry Odom did a great job in his 1st year but they ran hot af in the turnover department and were outgained overall while going 9-5. They are going to have a downgrade at QB this season. I hope I'm wrong but I expect them to have less wins this year. UNLV gonna UNLV.
I can't believe after all those dog days of summer and waiting for CFB to be back, we are just a couple days away from Clemson-Georgia, AnM-ND, and Miami-Florida.
Ok, I think we’re all expecting Nebraska to lose to UTEP as a 27.5 point favorite, but do we think they keep it within one score?
Rutgers conference schedule is pretty sweet too
They duck Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State and Michigan
I was talking to some friends today and said that its sad because Billy is the first coach Ive actually liked as a person in like a decade and yet hes just ****ed.
I honestly dont think the team is bad, the schedule just sucks. We should be competitive in most games, so if we start losing 40-14 against Texas/Georgia/Ole Miss then I think its over for him
Napier survives a 5-7 campaign I think
