2024 NFL Game Thread - Week 10
Thursday
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-6)
Sunday
München, Deutschland (9:30am ET)
New York Riesen (-6.5) @ Caroli
Amazing how the best offensive minds continue to be god awful at game management.
Not that it was likely to matter, but good god. Just ****ing throw it at the end zone again. You score a TD, hope to hit 2 pt conversion, recover the onside kick, then need 15 or so yards to get into fg range.
If not, kick the FG on 4th and you still need the TD. Or if you don’t convert the 2 pt after a 3rd down TD. You still need the TD.
it's incredible. and yea either way they're probably ****ed bc you almost never get the onsides kick but it's mind boggling. you could make a better argument for going for it on 4th down than you can kicking it on third down.
That too on the 4th down argument. The TD difficulty is just so much greater than the FG difficulty. You want to have as many quality TD chances as possible.
McVay I don’t really think is all that intelligent fwiw.
He's a bitch compared to elite minds like Ben Johnson's
That too on the 4th down argument. The TD difficulty is just so much greater than the FG difficulty. You want to have as many quality TD chances as possible.
It's interesting that this "kick FG first when down 11" thing has happened multiple times this season.
For most of us here it seems a sub-optimal strategy. But actually it takes more time to kick a FG than scoring a TD. Because it requires the offense to either clock the ball or run an OOB play to enable another play, i.e. a FG attempt. Whereas a hail mary is a single play which requires no additional play, other than an untimed 2 pt conversion.
Of course in most cases it is easier to score a FG than score a TD. But at some point taken to extremes it could be easier to score a TD. Foe example, 1 second remaining and ball is out of range of kicker, e.g. 50 yard line.
I thought maybe the Rams were going for the 24-23 eight field goal game, getting the kicker in the Pro Bowl or something.
FWIW in 2023 McVay kicked 38 yd FG down 10 against 9ers last year with 4 sec remaining on 2nd down. The clock expired after the successful kick and the Rams lost 23-30. The controversy afterward was McVay tying the betting point spread (-7) with what turned out to he a meaningless FG.
McVay also did something similar against the Saints a few years ago. So either he has somebody on staff telling him this is the correct strategy, or he is consistently employing this strategy multiple times apparently convinced it is correct.
The guy who created the 4th down bot (whose name escapes me) pointed out once that coaches, rather than maximizing their win probability, instead try to maximize the time that they still have a chance to win the game. So for example in those late game situations where they need two scores, they go for the easy field goal rather than the TD, because if they go for it and don't get a first down or TD the game is effectively over. Even though the numbers in many cases would tell them that going for the TD would give them the higher probability of winning the game. The extreme example would be 4th and goal on the 1 and down by 10 or 11 very late in the game, I bet most coaches send out the kicking team.
