Bad Coaching Thread: Matt Eberflus canned like chunk light tuna
Here's the last line from the box score of yesterday's Loiusville - Kentucky game.
UK TD 0:28
STEVE JOHNSON 57 YD PASS FROM ANDRE' WOODSON
(LONES SEIBER KICK)
Drive info: 8 plays, 74 yards.
UL 34 UK 40
By the way he decided so quickly, and how sure he was about it after the game, I think Bowles kicks the PAT even if there's no time on the clock. That would be a gigantic mistake.
The problem with that much time left is that you still lose some % of the time even if you make the 2PT conversion. So if you're 50/50 to make the conversion, then you're 50% to lose outright, and then another 5-10% or whatever to lose to a last second FG.
But if you kick PAT, you're also 5-10% to lose to a last second FG.
The odds of losing in regulation are not equal between the game being tied and the Chiefs losing by 1.
I’m not sure how to quantify the difference, but if you’re 5-10% to lose with the Chiefs down 1, it’s probably closer to 3-7% with the game tied.
Using last night’s outcome, the Chiefs obviously have to go for it on 4th and 1 with :13 if down 1, whereas they punted in a tied game.
The Bucs loss in regulation percentage in either scenario would be reduced by the Bucs not calling a TO with :33 remaining 1st and goal from the 1.
Then again, there's also a 5% chance you miss the PAT, and it was raining so that's certainly a few % higher than normal.
That's certainly another consideration.
The fact of the matter is there are so many potential variables at play. But at it's core, I bet a full simulation would say don't call TO with :33 remaining and let the clock run, then go for 2 for the win given it's the undefeated defending champs on the road.
By the way he decided so quickly, and how sure he was about it after the game, I think Bowles kicks the PAT even if there's no time on the clock. That would be a gigantic mistake.
The problem with that much time left is that you still lose some % of the time even if you make the 2PT conversion. So if you're 50/50 to make the conversion, then you're 50% to lose outright, and then another 5-10% or whatever to lose to a last second FG.
And you still lose sometimes in regulation even if you make the PAT.
Reid isn't having them kneel out the clock though like John Fox with elite Peyton Manning.
KC is slightly more likely to score bc they have to go for it on 4th down losing by a point, but not that much more likely than if it's tied.
PATs also aren't automatic anymore even though people like to act like they are.
Even against a team not as good as the chiefs it's a no brainer to go for 2.
Against the chiefs on the road- kicking the XP is atrocious.
I'd like to see people's combinatorics for recommending either PAT or 2 PT. IMO a team needs a running QB to go for 2 in these situations. Mayfield is a passable run option, so maybe. But I'm guessing that most models do not properly figure 2 PT chances for a team's offensive construction.
As stated above, clock mismanagement prior to TB TD had a very big impact on the "correct" decision. Because Chiefs would be a longshot to win with only a few seconds on the clock and TB up 1. Also because it forces TB to throw the ball as they would have no remaining TOs, and KC can defend knowing that.
Also, I sense some bias here with KC winning the coin toss. If TB won the toss and scored I'm guessing a few posters would criticize the 4th and 1 punt in reg.
And you still lose sometimes in regulation even if you make the PAT.
Reid isn't having them kneel out the clock though like John Fox with elite Peyton Manning.
KC is slightly more likely to score bc they have to go for it on 4th down losing by a point, but not that much more likely than if it's tied.
PATs also aren't automatic anymore even though people like to act like they are.
Even against a team not as good as the chiefs it's a no brainer to go for 2.
Against the chiefs on the road- kicking the
Eh, McLaughlin is pretty automatic lol. He's 148/151 in his career on PATs. Although, one of his misses is this season.
He's also 28/28 on FGs 20-29 and 29/30 on FGs 30-39.
40-49 is weak his spot, as he's only 22/36.
He's actually better from 50-59 at 30/36.
But I agree that go for 2 was the right play.
Also, I sense some bias here with KC winning the coin toss. If TB won the toss and scored I'm guessing a few posters would criticize the 4th and 1 punt in reg.
The actual results will certainly always create bias. But that's a really tough spot on the field. The bad weather probably makes it a little better, but if they go for 4th and don't convert, that's right at the end of McLaughlin's FG range. KC would turn it over at their own 39. McLaughlin's career long is 57. He's done it at least twice. His longest this year is 56.
Also, I sense some bias here with KC winning the coin toss. If TB won the toss and scored I'm guessing a few posters would criticize the 4th and 1 punt in reg.
That's part of the equation though. You have to factor in the potential of losing the coin toss in OT. Like maybe that doesn't bear out anything mathematically, but a huge argument for going for 2 is that you are putting the game in your own hands. Kicking the XP puts the factor of never touching the ball again in play.
Going for 2 gives you about a 50% chance to win because you also have to factor in missing the XP. The Bucs are easily giving up at least 10 percentage points by kicking the XP; Bucs win equity is 40% at best kicking that XP and probably worse considering their team, their opponent, field conditions, being on the road, etc.
I wouldn’t be surprised if eventually the regular season OT rule also includes a chance with the ball, even if the first possessing team scores a TD.
Then you’ll have first possessing teams trying to manufacture a 10 minute scoring drive lol.
Why not. The 10 min period already caps # of plays, which NFLPA is concerned about primarily.
It would be interesting to simulate a poll of the 32 NFL coaches in the TB decision. I bet most of the coaches w/ winning records would go for 2 (Campbell being the most certain), and most of the coaches w/ losing records going for XP (Bowles and Taylor leading that group).
Action Dan is certainly going for 2 there.
From Saturday:
Clemson down 26-7 to Louisville score a TD with 6:00 left in the game and kick the extra point to go do down 26-14 instead of going for two to make it an 11 point game.
Clemson down 33-14 to Louisville score a TD with 2:26 left in the game and kick the extra point to go do down 33-21 instead of going for two to make it an 11 point game.
Evidently the people of South Carolina were so mad at Dabo for these two mistakes that they took away his right to vote today.
Another big mistake by Bowles was using his first two timeouts way too early.
Michigan's coach just let 30 seconds bleed for no reason before calling his TO.
Ryans coaches late game like it's 2002.
Does that take into account how absolutely dogshit the Texans offense had been in the second half?
FG obv worst choice.
At least try to draw them offside and take delay of game. Nothing to lose and it's probably an easier punt (ofc DET could decline penalty).
It's a highly leveraged situation. Make first down and you likely win. If not, then DET likely wins.
FG obv worst choice.
At least try to draw them offside and take delay of game. Nothing to lose and it's probably an easier punt (ofc DET could decline penalty).
It's a highly leveraged situation. Make first down and you likely win. If not, then DET likely wins.
Sure, but I'm still curious if that takes into account how bad their offense had been in the 2nd half.
Up to that point, I think they only had like 5 first downs total in the 2nd half.
More like EburfLOLs, amirite?
That guy is such a donkey.
That's like the scene in Liar Liar when the judge asks what grounds Jim Carrey objects on and the answer is "Because it's devastating to my case!"
I guess there's maybe a game situation where it makes sense to do this, like if there's a long non-scoring play right before the two minute warning that totally blows your winning chances if it stands, and it looks like they'll get the next play off before they can show the replay on the big screen. But it's pretty rare.
