Bad Coaching Thread: Matt Eberflus canned like chunk light tuna

Is it a 5 or 15 yard penalty?

You basically take the conversion rate from that spot and compare that to what happens if you don't score. The lower % you use for the 3rd drive resulting in a score the higher your 2PT conversion % has to be.

In a situation where MaHomes can run around all he wants w/o fear of a holding being called, ever, a KC win was inevitable.

I worked out the #s a few pages back with kicking FG to tie or go on 4th down to win. It's basically the same here, xp for tie or 2 pt conversion for win.

So 5 yard penalty go if SF scores >= 70% of time. With 15 yard penalty almost always kick xp.

gotta be more liberal with the 2pt go because of scenarios where SF doesn't score next possession but you also don't

Any adjustment needed for the chances of a miss on the ensuing 47yd XP? Probably negligible difference given good conditions + Butker, but could be a concern in different circumstances.

Still probably few if any cases where you'd rather go for 2 from the 17.

The calcs change, but the result does not change much.

Let's go with 9ers winning 77% of the time if KC makes 47 yd xp. If Butker's success rate is 80%, then 9ers will win 0.8 * 0.77 + 0.2 = 0.816.

So KC should try for the 2 pt conversion if their success rate exceeds (1 - 0.816) = 0.184. I don't see anything close to that from the 17 yd line, so xp is likely best.
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With a 5 yard penalty, that would require Butker to kick a 38 yd xp. I'd put success rate at 92%, which makes 9ers win chance 0.9 * 0.77 + 0.08 = 0.773.

So KC should try 2 pt conversion from 7 if their success rate exceeds (1 - 0.773) = 0.227, which seems reasonable.

Again, **** this thread for existing

Are you still bothered a week later?

It’s like a scab that keeps getting picked at before it’s had enough time to heal and all of the sudden yay fresh blood

This thread transcends Kyle Shanahan.
Avert your eyes if you must.

I know it's the UFL, but this deserves a bump:

Houston 18- DC 23. 4th quarter 2:44 left in the 4th. HOU ball, 3rd and 20 on HOU 41.

Complete pass for 7 yards, 4th and 13. Clock is running down. HOU has 2 TOs and the 2min. Warning. They get their punt team on the field and with 2:11 remaining...DC's coach calls a TO...

DC didn't have too many men on the field, and even if they did it was 4th and 13. He just called a TO to apparently stop the clock and preserve time. Why? No one knows.

That's a fun one. I mean even if you still had your regular defense out there (thinking they were gonna go for it), the worst case scenario is that there's no one to return the punt and they down it inside the 5. Like...maybe if there were no chance the clock ticks down to 2:00 during the punt anyway, then it's worth it?

Not sure if obviously stupid but for tge sake of bumping this thread, Cincinnati punting on 4th and 5 with 2:10 left seemed dumb even with 3 timeouts and from their own 15

yeah that was wild that they punted there, they are more than 60% to get the 1st down there if they go for it

i think the only redeeming part of the decision is they had a punter who could kick it 70 yards, but even so, it was a dumb decision

gotta not trust your offense

yeah, much better way to phrase "they really trust the defense" 😀

History

A terrible decision that will go unnoticed because they won:

Bills attempted a FG up 3 at the Ari 20 on 4th and 2 with two minutes left. Teams really don't understand how easy it is for the offense to move the ball in these situations. They drastically underestimate the TD probability. You need to create a two score game or run out the clock. Going from 3 to 6 adds very little. In fact, it just lets dumb coaches play optimally instead of settling for a FG and going to OT.

McDermott also messed up last year's playoff game against the Chiefs.

interestingly, they didn't put out a tweet for the bill fg attempt you mentioned - must have been an oversight as they usually cover all those spots

I think on Bills last drive they had a 2nd and 1 in AZ territory and AZ got a 12 men on the field pre-snap penalty. I'm fairly certain it was intentional. Bills should have declined.

I'm dumb, how does taking that penalty help Arizona in that scenario?

If you assume that the Bills will make the 1st down the next play (not an unreasonable assumption on 2nd and 1), then just forcing the 1st down by penalty saved the Cardinals 40 seconds or a timeout.

Without knowing any other context, the only thing I can think is there may be a situation where the clock is the factor.

If it's near the two-minute warning and I'm trying to get the ball back (so field position doesn't really matter), I'd rather you have 1st and 10 as opposed to 2nd and 1 since you can, theoretically run a 2nd down play after which I have to call a TO, and it's likely to result in a 1st down, giving you 3 more downs.

If I take the penalty and just give you 1st and 10, you get the 3 downs, but I have the 3 TOs to stop the clock.

I would think that at that point in the game 2nd and 1 is the absolute best scenario for the Bills and absolute worst for AZ. Bills are gonna get a 1st down 9+ times out of 10. If I'm AZ I would just give it to them with the penalty and save the 35 seconds or whatever.

Oh yeah duh. Thanks guys.