LeBron > Jordan GOAT Super AIDS Containment, solved #22999 post by Matt R. (addendum #23174)

Spot on - people forget how the Bad Boys were such a massive struggle and grind for Bird & Magic's super-teams, whereas the instant MJ got 1 all-star it was bye-bye Sad Boys forever. Night and Day. It's just a shame that MJ didn't get an all-star sooner.

It's also notable that Rip Hamilton was injured a lot in 2002 but MJ and Rip were 15-1 together leading up to Jordan's meniscus tear in Game 47 of the 02' season - they had figured out the chemistry and were already unbeatable together - MJ was simply unbeatable with any sub-20 ppg perimeter scorer, while many other stars like Magic or Lebron need super-teams but still win a lot less.

MJ was 169th of 177 qualifying players in TS during his age 38 season. He managed 60 inefficient games as a chucker on a poor team he built. LeBron was way better at this age, cut the nonsense.

He also downplays Lebron has also dealt with injuries, and when he was healthy was still top10ish in the league, well above Jordan's level pre-injury Wizards form, he didn't have 4.5 seasons of vacations either in his career, Lebron has 400 regular season games(another 100 playoff ones too) on Jordan at the same age, it's not the same 38

Is 56 the year you were born or your age when you made the account?

Yeah I’m surprised to see TWOG even mention the Wizards years. The MJ faithful generally never mention the Wizards or his time as an owner. Because it exposes a lot of the delusion around this conversation. MJ, the ultimate competitor, who never lost a practice, relentlessly chased perfection on the bulls and was THE reason for all their dominance…yet came back on a cheap contract at the Wizards, put a poor team around him and performed inefficiently at a sub All - NBA level. Kinda breaks the spell a bit. And that’s before nearly two decades of utterly hapless team management / ownership, where MJ consistently made choices that contributed to losing lots of basketball games.

Maybe, just maybe, some of MJ’s greatness relates to the same coach, GM and HOF no.2 he had beside him and around him during the Bulls?

But anyway, I don’t anticipate reading TWOG’s impending word salad fantasy wall of text on how age 38 Jordan chucking at sub All - NBA level and missing the playoffs (while consuming a tiny fraction of the cap) was somehow better than age 38 LeBron going All - NBA and to the conference finals (while consuming ~30% of the cap). That he would even try and make this argument is a good example of the delusion on display here though!

Mj got hurt and was doing great just before the injury .
And what u think it’s worst , MJ missing the playoff due to an injury rated at +2500 to win the title with the team he had ,
or LeBron 37 with LA and 4 HoF missing the playoff rated at +400 to win a title ….

Well again, it’s debatable how “great” he was doing given his efficiency stats. He was chucking enough to get there with bulk stats and the team had a winning record, but it wasn’t likely sustainable, wasn’t likely going to win playoff series. That TS% stat tells a lot imo.

Nevertheless, as much as people criticise ‘LeGM’ MJ had been the actual Wizards GM since the start of 2000. And he added himself to the roster on a minimum deal in fall of 2001. If the team stunk and was +2500, that was squarely his own making. He was responsible for building it. If the team wasn’t good enough in the crazy scenario where MJ was added for a fraction of the cap, that’s a big knock on MJ (and makes a mockery of all the Last Dance implied crap that gets left at Krause’s door).

As for LeBron and the 2022 Lakers and their “4 HOF players” (Jesus the MJ crew are endlessly disingenuous - Westbrook, Carmelo, Dwight in the year of our lord 2021), LeBron / AD / Westbrook managed 21 games together all year where they went 11 - 10. AD was injured most of the year and the Westbrook trade was an ultimately calamitous attempt to supplant the LA duo with a third star. LeBron played a pile of games at 5 for a struggling team and performed at an All NBA level, shrug.

But this is good stuff, as far as this dumpster fire of a debate goes. Let’s talk about the Wizards and talk about LeBron as he moves towards 40 and compare. This is what we should be talking about imo.

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24' AD...................... 25 on 56%
24' D-Lo'.................. 18 on 47%
24' Reaves............... 16 on 48%
24' Rui...................... 12 on 52%

02' Rip...................... 20 on 44% (missed 20 games and barely played with M)
02' Whitney............. 10 on 43%

True shooting is negatively-correlated with defensive attention, such as carrying the worst cast and biggest load - MJ couldn't dominate under these conditions in 2002 like he could in his prime, hence the Pippen-like TS ranking.

Otoh, Lebron faces little defensive attention and is carried by comparison because he's arguably the 2nd option alongside the #4 all-time PER and goat-level 2-way player (AD) that dominated Jokic to make the 20' Finals.. So the Lakers have the best sidekick in the league (AD or Bron), while also having 16-17 point scorers at 3rd and 4th option..

So the issue regarding TS is that Lebron would never join a 19-win team like Jordan that puts downward pressure on TS - he prefers to hand-pick preseason favorites instead so he can efficiency-hunt rather than being forced to take shots and carry the biggest load in the league like MJ always had..

A Jordan team never has scoring help because the GM assumes that MJ will carry the load, while a Lebron-team has tons of scoring help because "passers" with spotty jumpshots like Lebron or Magic need all-time scoring help and "closers" (aka FMVP Kareem, FMVP Worthy, FMVP Wade, AD outplays Jokic, Kyrie outplays MVP curry, etc...)

It's true that Jordan's true shooting could no longer handle the goat load and defensive attention that he had always undertook in his career, but Jordan still found other ways to lift a 19-win team to .500 in 2002, while Lebron is barely .500 with the best sidekick in the league and arguably the best cast in the league.

So there's a lot more to winning than true shooting.. i.e. Jordan's expert jumpshooting skill has always yielded a better brand of ball/chemistry and therefore needed less help/talent, while his superior iso/clutch ability still allowed the Wizards to win more close games.. Of course he was still a good defender and leader that teammates naturally got up for, while Lebron is a bad defender and lets teammates slank.. For these reasons, MJ was the better basketball player at 38 years old pre-injury, as evidenced by him achieving similar record with far lesser help.

Keep in mind that Rip missed a lot of games in 2002 and rarely played with MJ, but they were 15-1 when they played together leading up to Jordan's injury in Game 47.. So they had figured out the chemistry and the ensuing 15-1 record showed that all Jordan needed was a sub-20 ppg scorer at sidekick to be unbeatable.. In addition to the great chemistry with Rip, Jordan was getting better as the season wore on by averaging 28/6/6 in the last 20 games leading up to the injury, and 30/6/6 in the last 10 - so he was basically all the way back individually and had developed great chemistry with Rip, but simply got hurt at the wrong time..

Jordan averaged 15 ppg on bad efficiency in the 13 games after the injury, after averaging 25/6/5 in the 47 games before the injury - this hurt his TS... Ultimately, this pre-injury caliber of 25 ppg in an era that allowed 20 less points per game, while also achieving a 26-21 record pre-injury with no cast is superior to 38-year Lebron, especially when you consider the great chemistry developed with Rip (15-1) and Jordan returning to full form in those last 10-20 games.. This is far superior to Lebron's inflated stats from today's weak era and also Lebron's underwhelming record with stacked casts.
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This might be true the GM, coach and sidekick that you referenced didn't force Jordan to win with unprecedented circumstance and burden such as needing to use the most possessions in the league to win (usage leader) or score the most to win (scoring champ) - both unprecedented - it can't be considered "ideal" for the #1 option to use the most possessions in the league to win, or score the most in the league to win.

it's literally the opposite and this goat-carrying ability allows goat-caliber basketball with less help.. For example, how do you achieve goat offenses without good scorers?.. Answer: you have the GOAT on your team, who produces four #1 offenses despite weak scoring help and even 4 on 5 lineups (rodman)...

Ultimately, Jordan wasn't capable of losing 3 straight games if he had an all-star teammate because he didn't lose 3 straight in the regular season or playoffs for 9 years once Pippen became an all-star (90-98'), while Lebron lost 3 straight games to lose a many series including 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2021 and 2023 - he lost 3 straight games to lose all these series, while MJ didn't lose 3 straight for 9 years in regular season or playoffs (90-98').

Did Magic, Kobe, Curry and Duncan have "perfect" situations too that allowed greater winning than Lebron?... or was it just MJ?

Essentially, I get it - you mistakenly and quite remarkably think MJ had the perfect situation - but what's your excuse for why Lebron won less than many other guys and has the lowest winning frequency of nearly any top 10 candidate?

Did everyone have the perfect situation except Lebron?.. smh.. face facts - 20 years confirms that Lebron isn't capable of a 3-peat, dynasty, #1 offense, or 6 chips with any lineup, aka objectively inferior to MJ (vastly).

How many more years or hand-picked lineups would it take for Lebron to find one that he could 3-peat with, or have a #1 offense, win 70 ganes, or get to 6 chips with?.. 50 years? 1000 lineups?.. Jordan 3-peated it twice, while also having 72 & 69-win seasons or #1 offenses despite going 4 on 5 offensively..

And it's a skillset thing - Lebron's lack of expert jumpshooting skill and the resulting ball-dominance imposes spot-up roles - these spot-up roles hinder young player development, chemistry, and brand of ball, thereby underachieving favored talent, aka losing with preseason favorites, or falling to underdog with preseason favorites - both of these things are underachieving the initial expectation.

Friendly reminder since Alzheimer’s runs high in this thread .

8m30sec to 12m45sec .
Before MJ played even 1 game in the nba ….
When I hear MJ didn’t win anything before pippen .
Mj won everywhere ….when he had anything « competent » enough .

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2004 - lottery
2005 - lottery with all-star teammate
2006 - 2nd Round loss
2007 - locked up (swept)
2008 - 2nd Round loss (locked up)
2009 - upset loss
2010 - upset loss (meltdown)
2011 - upset loss (choke)
2013 - teammate hits biggest shot ever
2014 - record loss with 2 all-star teammates
2016 - teammate hits 2nd biggest shot ever
2017 - record loss with 2 all-star teammates
2018 - record loss with 1 all-star teammate
2019 - lottery with Ingram/Kuzma/Rondo
2021 - 1st Round loss
2022 - lottery with super-team (3 franchise players on 1 team)
2023 - swept (fourth 4-0 loss or record loss of career)

17 of 20 years are either lottery seasons, sweep losses, record losses, upset losses or getting locked up, yet this is the "goat career" according to modern media and fans - a career of mostly losing and bad losses - he redefined success as not winning

zero dynasties.. zero #1 offenses... zero 70-win seasons... zero 3-peats... zero GW in the Finals... lottery record on championship level regardless of cast (20-21 in the Finals with super-teams)... this is the goat career... never a perennial favorite/sure thing regardless of cast - his skillset simply yields weak teams/chemistry, which requires more help/talent (moar help).

but carry-on
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22 Westbrook isn't a franchise player ffs

the rest of the post is your usual cherry-picking, calling 17 record loss is something special, GSW 17 is the best team of all time by a solid margin

Don't forget HoFers Carmelo Anthony and Dwight Howard. [emoji19]

The 22' Lakers were initially favored by many and yet they missed the play-in (biggest underachievement ever) because of Lebron's skillset and the resulting worst-ever fit with Westbrook.

If Lebron truly "played 5 positions", he would've morphed into his Karl Malone-mode and fit like a glove with Westbrook because big men love ball-dominators - AD or Malone love ball-dominators like Lebron or Stockton, so if Lebron could actually play like a true big, he would've fit great with Westbrook..Unfortunately, he scored 38k points as a ball-dominator, not as the roll-man and post threat like Malone.

Ultimately, Lebron only has a point guard skillset and his inability to be a big man or an off-guard created the worst fit of all-time - Lebron and Westbrook basically equaled 2 ball-dominators and one of them was a BIG MAN ball-dominator (the worst kind of ball-domination that yields the worst fits ever, aka the Westbrook debacle).. Only Lebron failed to make the playoffs with Westbrook, which adds to the evidence that Lebron's skillset has the worst chemistry of all-time, hence him underachieving favored talent more than anyone ever (losing with preseason favorites or otherwise underwhelming with stacked casts).

By definition, losing by record amount with a super-team is an underachievement - there wasn't a record gap in talent between the Cavs and Warriors - the Cavs actually had 3 franchise players (super-team) compared to the Warriors 2 franchise guys and the Cavs' #2 option had already outplayed the Warriors #2 (curry)..

So again, the gap in talent was not record amount, which means the record loss was underachievement.. And there's an argument to be made that there was little or no talent gap at all, so the record loss is just another massive underachievement by Lebron..

Btw, Lebron has the top 3 record losses in history (2018, 2014, 2017), so it's a TREND - this is just what Lebron's suboptimal skillset (big man ball-domination) DOES - it underachieves favored talent.

Maybe you're in denial but Lebron turned preseason favorites into underdogs or losers from 2011-2016 and 2021, except the Allen miracle - this is clear-cut underachievement of the initial expectation.. He also has upset losses like 2009, 2010, or 2011, so that's more documented underachievement, while the lottery season with AD/Westbrook was obviously underachievement as well.. Many people felt that getting swept by Denver was underachievement - all of this underachieving with favored talent is due to Lebron's weak chemistry - his skillset (abnormal ball-domination and spot-up role imposition) is bad at chemistry.. This is the historical record.

it isn't cherry-picking to say that 17 of 20 seasons were bad losses, such as lottery, record loss, sweep loss, upset loss or getting locked up.

again, this is the goat career according to you - a career of mostly bad losses where success must be redefined as not winning in order to be the goat career

zero dynasties.. zero #1 offenses... zero 70-win seasons... zero 3-peats... zero GW in the Finals... lottery record on championship level regardless of cast (20-21 in the Finals with super-teams)... this is the goat career according to bron fans... never a perennial favorite/sure thing regardless of cast - his skillset simply yields weak teams/chemistry, which requires more help/talent (moar help).

you are beyond delusional, you grossly underrate the 14 Spurs, how garbage Wade was that year, how big the talent gap between 17/18 Cavs vs Warriors

Lebron getting the 18Cavs to the finals is one of his best achievements, not a "Record Loss", that team was garbage and he just willed them into the finals like he did in 07, but you count those years as negatives for his legacy

The fact you think Kyrie/Love are more of a piece than Green/Klay is amusing, but you have to fit your narrative

Guys please don't take fallguy's posts seriously.

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Clutch Points (last 5 within 5) for 2016 2nd Round:

Clutch Points for 1994 2nd Round:

The Heat were injured in 15' but nearly made 16' ECF without Lebron just like 94' Bulls without MJ:

Playoffs

16' WADE............... 22.3 PER.. 4.9 bpm.. 0.148 ws/48.. 0.8 vorp.. 22/6/4 on 47%
94' PIPPEN'............ 22.8 PER.. 5.6 bpm.. 0.149 ws/48.. 0.7 vorp.. 23/8/6 on 43%

Before I specifically address your point about the Spurs being really good, the overriding point is that the Heat were expected to be a towering, goat-level dynasty and favored regardless of how surging the Spurs were.. History shows that the 93' Suns, 92' Blazers, 91' Lakers, 96' Sonics and Jazz were all surging - the 98' Jazz had just swept Shaq's 4 all-star Lakers and Popovich/Duncan after beating Hakeem in 1st round.. That would qualify as "surging" heading into the Finals.

But even if you didn't believe Lebron when he said "not 6, not 7" and therefore think it's okay for the Heat to not be favored, oddsmakers still put the series as a toss up - the odds were pretty much even, yet the Heat lost by record amount as 2x defending champions - by definition (even odds but record loss), that's significant underachievement.. The underachievement was highlighted by the Heat literally giving up midway through the games and the rest of the game was like an embarrassing charade - it looked like a bad AAU team getting beaten 155 to 3 or something - it's probably the biggest embarrassment in Finals history aside from 2011.

2014 ECF vs Pacers (#1 defense)

Lebron......... 23/6/6 on 56%
Wade'........... 20/5/5 on 55%


2013 Finals

Lebron.......... 25/11/7 on 45%
Wade'............ 20/5/5 on 48%


Sidekick help while trying to 3-peat

14' Wade.. Playoffs........ 18.5 PER.. 0.086 ws/48.. 1.6 obpm... 28.6 pts per 100... 56.0 ts.. 106 ortg
93' Pippen Playoffs'........16.9 PER.. 0.083 ws/48.. 1.1 obpm... 26.2 pts per 100... 50.0 ts.. 102 ortg

^^^ Lebron fans complain about Wade falling to prime Pippen's production level, yet still praise Pippen and claim to not understand why people knock him.

Ultimately, Wade achieved prime Pippen production and all-star status from 2013 to 2016 - this includes being a near equal-scoring partner to Lebron in the 2013 Finals or 2014 ECF, while fossil-Wade nearly led the Heat to the 16' ECF in typical Wade-superstar fashion (see the details in previous post above).

17' Cavs................... 3 franchise players (and sidekick that outplayed opposing sidekick)
17' Warriors............ 2 franchise players

^^^ this minor talent gap isn't justification for record loss and many teams have overcome far greater talent gaps

Lebron lost 3 straight games to close out many series like 2007, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2021, and 2023 - otoh, once MJ got 1 all-star, he wasn't capable of losing 3 straight games and didn't lose 3 straight in regular season or playoffs for 9 years (90-98').

carry on

^^^ this is one of the biggest misperceptions of Lebron's career...

In addition to having the best 2nd option in the conference (perennial all-star), Lebron had a 3-time conference champion versus baby teams with zero experience and zero chance against one of the most experienced and battle-tested teams ever.. These were perennial Finals rosters that he hand-picked versus baby teams.

Ultimately, Kyrie played 12 of 14 games in the 15' East playoffs, while Love was a rare all-star sidekick in the 18' East, so the only time Lebron took a 1-star team to the Finals was when everyone was doing it (Iverson, Dwight, Kidd twice).

Furthermore, people forget that Love averaged 21/11 against both top 5 SRS opponents faced in those playoffs (Warriors, Raptors), so Lebron never beat a top 5 SRS team with weak scoring & efficiency from a sidekick (zero carry-jobs vs top teams in 2 decades of playing).. He's too ball-dominant at carry-job volume to beat top teams, so he can't win with 18 on 38% from Mo and needs all-time scoring help instead.. He needs sidekicks that can 1) match or outscore him for entire playoff runs (11' wade, 16' kyrie, 20' AD) and also 2) outplay league MVPs (kyrie over curry; ad over jokic; wade outplayed dirk).

"passers" with spotty jumpshots like Lebron and Magic need all-time scoring help and "closers" like fmvp kareem, fmvp worthy, fmvp wade, or kyrie outplaying mvp curry, or ad over jokic.. it's an absurd amount of help that "passers" need (inherently inferior).

If you were a great player in the 00's East, then you probably willed a 1-star cast to the Finals like Iverson, Kidd, Lebron or Dwight..

The 00's East is the only conference that was won by multiple 1-star teams and it was actually MOSTLY won by 1-star teams (5 of 9 years from 01-09').

Getting locked up is always a knock on legacy:

22-23 year old vs championship teams

07' Lebron vs Spurs............. 22 on 36%
05' Amare vs Spurs.............. 37 on 55%

80' Magic vs Sixers............... FMVP (20 yrs old)
86' Jordan vs Celts................ 44 on 50% (23 yrs old)

For 17 of 20 seasons, Lebron was either lottery, sweep loss, record loss, upset loss, or locked up (07', 08').

How many wins for a team if Draymond is the best scorer (#1 option)?

Zero.. obviously

Otoh, Love was winning 40 in the West with zero help, while Kyrie was #1 pick - both guys were considered franchise players, while Draymond is a role player that would be unknown if he didn't land in a goat winning system built upon a generational offensive player.

Again, only the Cavs had 3 franchise players (super-team) compared to 1 franchise player for the 15' or 16' Warriors, which is why the Cavs were preseason favorites in 15' and 16'.. It's amazing that Lebron gets props for winning with favored talent (preseason favorites) instead of getting knocked for letting those favorites fall to underdog as the season wears on, aka winning 50-someting games instead of 70-something.

Teams with LeBron get favored bc they have LeBron

He's the causation

If that wasn't true of Jordan in his day then that makes sense with the whole inferiority complex itt

Westbrook 21 was really really good and definitely a franchise player. He's an all time bad fit with LeBron.

I remember him finishing 21 really well. 25/13/13 over the final 40 games.

To say otherwise is wrong.

2020 Rockets went all-in with Westbrook by trading away all their bigs and just playing Westbrook, Harden, and all 3-and-D wings to space the floor. Westbrook was the only non-shooter on the floor.

It sort of worked, but it was never going to be good enough to win a title.

It was obvious to anyone with an ounce of basketball knowledge that Westbrook would suck with LeBron and AD. And no, you shouldn't take the ball out of LeBron's hands to accomodate a declining Westbrook.

You need not fret boss, would not be me.

EDIT: just skimming, the cherry picking when he's caught on a particular point is performance art.

I mean come on, MJ on a vet min deal on a team he directly built as GM with the coach of his choosing: +2500. And that's fine. The NBA is hard. MJ was 6 - 9 across his career at getting to play in June. Those other 9 seasons happened, he was not infallible. He could not will it himself. He needed maybe the best coach of all time and the perfect supporting cast. And he smashed it once they were in place. That's okay, it's how it works.

You are completely correct imo. Westbrook still had bags of juice, he just was a dreadful idea to place with LeBron specifically given his capabilities. Again, when the three of them played together that year they were 11 - 10. If AD had managed a healthier season maybe they figure it out somehow. The team construction decisions around LeBron and AD from the 2020 offseason through the 2023 trade deadline were completely bizarre. I appreciate some of the transactions would have been pushed for by LeBron himself.

And yet, if AD doesn't get injured in that Suns series in 2021 I think they probably had it.

Lebron's teams weren't favored on-paper (preseason favorite) until he had 2 all-star teammates from 2011-2016 (6 straight years)

During these 6 straight years that his team was preseason favorite, the team fell to underdog or loser in the Finals every year, except the Allen miracle.

Falling from preseason favorite to underdog or loser is clear-cut underachievement of favored talent (preseason favorites) and this consistent fall-off from favored status also confirms that Lebron's skillset isn't capable of perennial favorite status on the championship level - his weaker chemistry will always fall to underdog/loser with preseason favorites (underachieve with favored talent).. Instead, Lebron-ball is a perennial underdog on the championship level due to the vastly superior brand and chemistry of opponents, and he barely meets this underdog expectation (4/10).

The opposite of this is true for Jordan's expert jumpshooting skillset, which yielded the best chemistry/teams, perennial favorite status on the Finals level and the most "sure things" the league has ever seen (6/6), along with goat winning (3-peat, 70 wins, 6 in 7 years).

Again, a clear-cut demonstration of MJ's superiority is the fact that MJ got a 14' Spurs-style blowout with 1 all-star vs Bad Boys, while Bird/Magic' went 7 or lost with super-teams and bevies of all-stars - the Bad Boys were a massive handful and struggle for Bird/Magic's super-teams, whereas MJ only needed 1 all-star to sweep and end their franchise in historic blowout fashion like the 14' Spurs/Heat... That's what happens when a superior brand of ball blows the doors off an inferior brand.

It's actually amazing to think that the organic chemistry that destroys Lebron (Nuggets, Spurs, Warriors, Mavs, Magic) is exactly the kind of team and player that Jordan was.. So Jordan would've absolutely demolished Lebron with a far worse cast due to superior chemistry just like Jokic, Curry, Duncan and others did - it's the reliable blueprint to beat Lebron, so why wouldn't MJ use it?

Otoh, there was no blueprint for beating Jordan in the Finals because his skillset always yielded the best chemistry and brand of ball and team ceilings (3-peat, 70 wins, goat offenses, etc with just 1 all-star).. Only Jordan lacked bad losses (upset losses, getting locked up, 4-0 sweeps, or losses with good teams aka 1 or 2 seeds)

Why can't Lebron just use expert jumpshooting skill to play off Westbrook and make the Finals like Kevin Durant?

Lebron's time with Westbrook confirmed that Durant can do more with less, since he made the Finals with baby Westbrook, while Lebron missed the play-in with AD/Westbrook.. (it's funny how 22-year old Lebron gets an excuse for being swept and locked up in 07', but KD/Westbrook can't get a pass at the same age and are viewed as great "comp" for Lebron in 12')

In addition to doing more with various lineups than Lebron, Durant's skillset yields higher team ceilings/Finals records due to superior chemistry - unlike Durant, Lebron-ball can never have a goat team or dynasty because the brand of ball is usually inferior to Finals opposition like the Spurs, Warriors, Mavs, Nuggets or Magic.. People don't realize that KD with the Warriors was literally UNBEATABLE, while lebron-ball is the opposite of that, aka perennial underdog and loser on the championship level due to inherently suboptimal playing style/chemistry... Meanwhile, expert jumpshooters yield a better brand of ball that is favored on the championship level (kd-ball, curry-ball, mj-ball, kobe-ball, bird-ball)