LeBron > Jordan GOAT Super AIDS Containment, solved #22999 post by Matt R. (addendum #23174)

Sorry, you can't put asterixis next to LeBron's Championships if you aren't willing to do the same with Kobe's 2002 chip.

See I would have thought it was setting a good example for your teammates, playing hard in practice/games, listening to the coach and following directions, as well as having multiple strengths in your game that makes you usable in multiple scenarios.

Thanks for clearing that up.

I went and looked in his game logs and 20-25% of the games in 90 and 93(the only years he really shot a lot of 3s) he went 0-1 or 0-2.

Fallguy you can't actually be serious. Just admit you're a troll and save face. This is just pathetic.

A reminder that fallguy’s entire argument is taking a statistic that is minimally (sometimes negatively) correlated with wins, choosing a range that is below the league average (thanks to fidstar for providing the data on this), saying this range is “highly assisted”, then concluding this is the secret to winning basketball, dynasties, and “dominant champions”.

Yes, this is as dumb as it sounds. He is a troll, and a troll who happens to know literally nothing about team basketball. Because a troll that knew anything about basketball or mathematics would have chosen a different, much less stupid argument to troll about.

A reminder that Kobe Bryant had a career fg% of .447 and a career 3 point percentage of .329

Low percentage chucker that belongs in discussions with Russell Westbrook and Allen Iverson, you know, other guys who won 1 MVP.

The "1st miss" argument works for anyone - Curry's seasons can be eliminated because we know that he made the 1st three in those seasons when his percentages were up.

This is the dumbest argument itt by far, and it's by a bunch of nerds that never picked up a ball

You guys lost all these arguments very badly.. Nothing has been refuted and virtually everything stands - Jordan always shot great at today's volumes and the best basketball cannot have a ball-dominator as 1st option.

You guys are the embarrassment for thinking hoopers get scared after their first miss - it's an embarrassing revelation of your own basketball experience.

The "1st miss" argument works for anyone - Curry's seasons can be eliminated because you guys think that he must have made the 1st three in seasons when his percentages were up.

This is the dumbest argument itt by far, and it's by a bunch of nerds that never picked up a ball

You guys lost all these arguments very badly.. Nothing has been refuted and virtually everything stands - Jordan always shot great at today's volumes and the best basketball cannot have a ball-dominator as 1st option.

And?

Now do it for Curry - your dumb "I never played before" argument works for all players...

Curry's best shooting seasons are now explained by him simply making the first three in most of his games that year.

Thanks for clearing all that up Mr. Baller.

It's amazing how thoroughly I've won all these arguments - you guys are a literal joke and should stop watching sports - you say the dumbest things - I wish you guys could tell those theories to actual players and watch them laugh at you the same way that I am.

EVERYTHING stands - Jordan always shot great at today's volumes and the best basketball cannot have a ball-dominator as 1st option, which makes Lebron and other low-assisted 1st options inferior to the best highly-assisted 1st options.

Curry shot through slumps, I found 1 game where he went 0-1 from 3, he played 2 1/2 minutes. Another where he was 1-2 in 9 minutes. Beyond that he basically always takes 4+ attempts.

Mostly it was just to show how stupid it is to ignore 25% of his games during seasons that he shot more 3s when you cherry pick he still had a ton of games where he didn't shoot them or gave up after the first miss or two. And then he defaulted back to 1ish 3pa per game for most of his career outside of the 3pointers for dummies era in the mid-90s.

Your argument can be applied every time a player sees an uptick in their 3-point efficiency from one season to the next - so any uptick means that the player simply made more of their 1st threes in that particular year.

this is THE dumbest thing itt, bar none.. literally nothing is close

your new year's resolution should be to take 100% of the time that you were watching hoops and DO SOMETHING ELSE.

jordan stated many times that he didn't want to shoot threes and it's a documented fact that he made a concerted effort to take more threes in 90', 93', the shortened line years, or if opponents challenged him to take it like the 92' Finals.... Why can't this be the end of it???... Jordan clearly had GOAT IQ, so he didn't shoot poorly at higher volumes like today's players do.... But instead, you guys can't handle the reality of Jordan's goat shooting form and always shooting well at today's volumes, so you come up with some absolute trash and crazily-wrong argument to change reality???... You guys lost on this particular point (Jordan's threes), and really badly.

You lost bud... 1st options with career assisted rates of under 40% cannot produce the best basketball, while 1st options with career assisted rates of over 40% produced all dynasties and dominant champions (12 for 12)..

You cannot poke holes in this and I should've used career average from the start (duh)... But either one works because the prime range of 20-40 vs 40-60 covers all the bases as well, but career average is obviously simpler.

And again, about half of 1st options have assisted rates under 40%, and we're only talking about 1st options, so fidstar's point about the entire league fails.. Most players in the league aren't stars - they're role players, so they have higher assisted rates, but we aren't talking about them - we're only talking about 1st options, who often have low assisted rates below 40%.

Will there be anything else, or can you just accept your ass-whipping like a man?

You missed the post where I took away Kobe's 2002 ring because the refs cheated.

So let's take away Kobe's 2002 chip, and of course Lebron's 2011 run was a negative chip... When this dust settles, Kobe still proves superior by virtue of 2 chips with a 2nd option that was worse than Lebron's 3rd options (Bosh & Love).. Secondly, Kobe still got much closer to a 3-peat on 2 separate occasions from 00-02' and 08-10' than Lebron did with the Heat (record blowout or goat choke - take your pick of the horrific loss that stopped the 3-peat).

So Kobe is superior by virtue of having a skillset that produces great teammate chemistry and elevation, so the team can win with less, such as a 2nd option that was worse than Lebron's 3rd options... And the argument regarding the best highly-assisted players vs low-assisted players applies here too - the best highly-assisted 1st options won more with less and came closer to producing dynasties and dominant champions (the best basketball) than the best low-assisted players - Kobe showed this when we compare his winning to Lebron's.

Ok Fallguy so by your logic we also proved that LeBron is the greatest high volume 3 point shooter of all time by virtue of being 47% in games where he shoots 10 or more. Therefore LeBron is the greatest 3 point shooter of all time, he just chooses to look for something else in 90% of games.

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FINAL THREAD CLIFFS OF 2024:

(that incorporate Matt's critical change to use career assisted % as the primary factor - what a last-minute save by Matt to "close" the year - what a closer!!!):

The "best basketball" can be defined as dominant champions that averaged 1 loss per round or less (4 losses max), or dynasties that mostly won for a material stretch of 5+ years (i.e. 3 in 5 years).

Accordingly, since possession-tracking began in 1997, 1st options with a career assisted rate above 40% (jumpshooters or bigs) were 1st option for 12 of 12 dynasties or dominant champions (the best basketball).. Otoh, 1st options with a career assisted rate below 40% (ball-dominators) were never 1st option for the best basketball (0 for 12).. These low-assisted ball-dominators ranged between 20-40% in their prime, compared to 40-60% for the jumpshooters and bigs that produced the best basketball (12 for 12).

Since the best jumpshooters and bigs produce the best basketball, they're superior to the best ball-dominators, so the first ball-dominators appear in the all-time rankings at 11th, 12th, and 13th (Magic, Lebron, Oscar).. The issue is that low-assisted 1st options have a high volume of unassisted buckets that hinders ball movement, while highly-assisted 1st options produce higher-assist teams and foster the great ball movement that every dynasty has.

The full rankings are MJ, Kareem, Russell, Wilt, Kobe, Bird, Duncan, Shaq, Curry, Jokic, Magic, Lebron, Oscar - the 2nd thru 10th spots are more interchangeable and subjective, but it's set in stone that MJ is #1 and ball-dominators are no higher than 11th, based on the previous logic that ball-dominators are never the 1st option for the best basketball (dynasties or dominant champions).

There could be many reasons. But likely players also shoot more 3's in games in which the way the game is being played, due to the defense, due to the personnel, due to the score, dictate that they should shoot more 3's. And then if they're hitting the shot they'll typically keep taking it.

Thus it makes perfect sense that both Jordan and LeBron shoot a much higher % in the games where they take more attempts. This is probably consistent for almost all players. So if you want to say that Jordan was a good 3 point shooter because you only look at the games where he shot considerably more than his career average, then you also have to conclude that LeBron is the greatest 3 point shooter of all time based on his 47% in games where he shoots 10 or more, which is also a much larger sample of shots than the Jordan sample you keep using.

You can have Jordan at #1, but having Kobe above LeBron requires actual brain damage to be in effect.

You merely provided evidence that players get hot - it's a real thing - confidence, optimism and the way your body feels on that particular day affect whether you get "hot" - sometimes your mind is sharper and is remembering/executing the movements more seamlessly, or forcefully, or whatever works for a particular player's shot.

But here's the key - unlike Lebron (who mostly drives), the majority of MJ, Kobe and Curry's shots are jumpers, and they get hot EVERY NIGHT... They had that type of jumpshooting volume on a nightly basis and the effect was similar (more winning)...

As a Kobe or MJ fan, you looked forward to the juncture in the game when the opposing coach calls a timeout because MJ hit 3 or 4 in a row and produced a 10 point lead... He did this every night, while Lebron rarely does it... So it's great that Lebron has high confidence in his jumper once in a while, but pure shooters like MJ and Curry had that confidence/effect EVERY night.. The jumpshooting volume tells the story... And anytime Jordan wanted to take today's 3-point volumes - he could - and he did with today's efficiency - he had GOAT IQ, so he never had high volume and low efficiency like today's players and like Lebron has all the time..

Your argument against Jordan's 3-point efficiency works against all players... Anytime a player sees an uptick in their 3-point efficiency from one season to the next, it's because that player mostly made their 1st three in that particular season - this is the dumbest thing that has been said itt, bar none, as I told bottomset on the previous page.

Again, Jordan stated many times that he didn't want to shoot threes, which means that his 1 attempt every year was bailout volume... And it's well-documented that Jordan made a concerted effort to shoot more threes in 1990, 1993, and also the shortened line seasons or when a team challenged him (92' Finals).. So why are we ignoring this obvious and documented truth, and fabricating a nonsensical, completely false narrative instead, which actually explains why ANY player sees an increase in 3-point efficiency?.. You guys are absurd and having a goat case of denial... Look at Jordan's form and shooting stroke - it's perfect - listen to KD say that MJ was a top 5 all-time jumpshooter...

And again, your argument about "1st miss" applies to everyone, which means it's absurd, dumb and wrong.. I cannot overemphasize this.. Players don't stop shooting if they miss their first shot - this is THE dumbest thing ever said itt and one of the most ignorant things ever said about basketball - try saying that to someone who played and watch them look at you like you're 5

I actually never said anything about a player making or missing their first attempt. Way to completely misunderstand everything. Try throwing more darts at a picture of LeBron or something.

CORRECTED FINAL THREAD CLIFFS OF 2024 (the final failure of fallguy)

LeBron James has had an assisted rate of 40 to 60% 9 times in his career, proving that he is highly assisted in the proper offense. We still do not know why fallguy chose 40 to 60% as the range, but it was a good call by him because it proved that LeBron is perfectly capable of being “highly assisted” when the scheme calls for it. What a clutch last minute decision by fallguy to bolster the LeBron GOAT proof.

LeBron can also win with a lower assisted rate because of his superior versatility to both Kobe and MJ. He has won chips with 3 different teams, 3 different coaches, and 3 different offenses. Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant are 0 for 16 without Phil Jackson and the triangle, proving they need very specific coaching and ball movement schemes to win. LeBron James does not.

To be clear, the mistake fallguy is making is called data dredging — he is finding the dumbest spurious correlations in the data possible and arguing that is the reason teams win. He is the only one who does not understand this arbitrary 40% threshold is just a random correlation. And as fidstar proved with data, this isn’t even “highly assisted”, it’s below the league average. Fallguy simply found one correlation in the nearly unlimited data set that happened to occur in the 3 “dynasties” that have happened since assisted fg% began being recorded. As a trivial elementary school exercise, you can calculate the probability of 3 teams having a first option with an assisted rate over 40% when 90% of the players in the league have an assisted rate over 40%. It’s a really easy calculation. Fallguy won’t be able to do it. But if you passed elementary school math it will take you a few seconds, at most.

Conclusion: fallguy has lost. And lost badly. He will whine. He will plead. He will cry. But it will not change the cold, hard truth. Fallguy has lost, it is conclusive, and it is fully documented that 2024 was a complete and total failure for him.

1st options with a career assisted rate above 40% (jumpshooters or bigs) were 1st option for 12 of 12 dynasties or dominant champions (the best basketball).. Otoh, 1st options with a career assisted rate below 40% (ball-dominators like Lebron) were never 1st option for the best basketball (0 for 12).

Since the best jumpshooters and bigs produce the best basketball, they're superior to the best ball-dominators..

So there you have it Matt - even though you were soundly defeated and a victim of fraud, try to have a Happy New Year

https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

tylervigen

Spurious Correlations

I’ll let you try to figure out on your own why dynasties tend to have an elite coach, an elite offensive system, and multiple elite players that tend to pass to one another (leading them to have some arbitrary percentage of assisted field goals). If you know anything about team basketball, you’ll be able to figure this out on your own, and if not, I can explain it to you in more detail. Consider it free tutoring.

I’m sorry the end of 2024 ended in defeat for you fallguy. I hope 2025 goes better for you and you find a new hobby. Happy New Year buddy! 🙂

0 for 12

just since 1997!!

Pretty compelling

The next low assisted 1st option (ball-dominator) to produce a dynasty or dominant champion will be the 1st (1 for 13)..

So what's wrong with ball-dominant 1st options??.. Why don't they produce the best basketball??... It must be their high volume of unassisted buckets that imposes spot up roles and lowers teammates ppg and APG - this style has never been a part of the best basketball (dynasties and dominant champions).

For the record, this Lakers roster is the most stacked in the league by virtue of the best sidekick (AD or Bron) and receiving more good players than any team in the league over the past 6 years - it's truly amazing the sheer volume of name-players and reputed role players that the Lakers received in the last 6 years - no other player received the best sidekick and shoals of other good players...

So the league is fixed to get Lebron another ring unless Tatum, Garland, Jokic or Curry can lead their hard-built organic teams (1 franchise player) over Lebron's league-manufactured super-teams (multiple franchise players).. It's unfair that everyone must toil away organically, while Lebron gets to team-up with opposing franchise players and have the league send him every good role player that exists.

The Lakers are so stacked that they can play addition by subtraction with guys like D-Lo, Reaves, Dinwiddie, Christian Wood, and many more - these guys are expendable.. Maybe they like Austin Reaves a little bit but he's still tradeable.