Fighting Sports (UFC/Boxing)
I love following UFC, and if I think there's a profitable bet I will be pulling it off, though I am betting like 1-2 times a year but a big bet. (because I only want to bet big to make sure I can put big enough amount of money, so the fight has to be big, and then it has to be profitable, and that's just not too often)
The biggest bet I have made was Floyd vs Connor, and I put like 400k on Floyd to payout 520k/120k profit. (my br at that time was 1.2m, and I assumed that Floyd would win 95%+ of the time, and Kelly's criterion said that with that type of odds and that type of probability, I should put 2/3 of my br on that bet, so I went with 1/3 of my br)
Other bet that I have made was Tyron Woodley (UFC 170lbs champ) at +120 vs Darren Till (contender from UK). I put like 100k and won 120k on it. I thought the guy was getting pushed too fast, and all media was rushing too fast on UK contender, and UK fans love to bet their guy.
Ahhh talking about UK, also 2022 football championship, my friend 30min before the game asked if I can put 100k for him for Italy to win vs United Kingdom, I think it was European championship, so I managed to put 100k for him and 100k for myself at +120 for Italy, and people seemed to agree that Italy was like 55% to win, so that was nice. (they won it with penalties)
My biggest regret is not betting on Dmitry Bivol vs Canelo Alvarez. I really had enough information and should have known better. It's just not that I like to follow boxing that much on a daily basis, but I do love watching UFC interviews on daily.
But I knew Canelo was loosing on a score card vs Sergey Kovalev at 175lbs until he knocked him out in like 11th round, and Kovalen was far beyond his prime, so Canelo picking another guy out of his natural weight category out 160-168lbs and moving up to 175lbs to challenge a world champion from Kazakhstan and Kazakh being like +700, it's really in my realm of knowledge where I should have noticed such a long line.
I haven't really lost many big bets, there's a few bets that I lost but those were like 20k bets, and I wasn't so sure about it. I lost one UFC bet that I bet vs a friend like 70k bet, but I still don't mind that bet, and at least that bet was vs a friend and no one gathered a vig.
Anyway just wanted to brag a bit above, and more importantly than that, to potentially find people that also love watching sports, and maybe we could notice a potentially a good +ev bet upcoming in Sports Market in Fighting Sports.
3 Replies
UFC 310 I also missed a bet, it's a bit results oriented, but for people that follow UFC:
Alexander Volkov vs Ciryl Gane.
Volkov was like +300, and he just managed to beat Sergei Pavlovich and outbox him really heavily.
Actually Ciryl Gane won this fight, but I believe it was a robbery, and I think I should have noticed this bet and put money on Volkov, I think he might have been even maybe something like +350.
It was a 3 round fight, and both are strikers, and Volkov proved to be a good striker, so those odds seemed incredible long.
I'm also a huge UFC fan and follow updates every day. I've always wanted to bet big on rare fights like Conor vs. Poirier or Conor vs. Mayweather. How exactly do you bet? What app do you use? Do you connect your bank account to it?
