NCAA Football 2025
Not sure who will win this year, hopefully Arch goes nuts and UT can kick the door in after making the quarterfinals the
Texas behind Oklahoma is not happening
Yeah, Iowa not being ranked is kinda frustrating. Only two losses were to ranked (at the time) teams and they gave the #2 team their closest game all year. Did well against everyone else. Lack of a big ticket win is killing them
SEC is doing an unbelievable job of not cannibalizing itself. The bottom 6 teams are 1-24 against the top-10.
Here's what they have left:
Contenders:
Mizzou v ATM
Bama v OU
UGA v Texas
OU v Mizzou
ATM @ Texas
Cannibals:
UGA @ Miss St
Vandy v Auburn
Vandy v UK
Bama v LSU
Bama @ Auburn
ATM v USCe
Ole Miss v UF
Ole Miss @ Mississippi State
Mizzou v Miss St
Mizzou @ Ark
Texas v Ark
OU v LSU
Vandy @ Tenn
Other:
UGA v GT
So basically:
- Ole Miss is in unless they lose to both UF and Mississippi State. Their schedule is basically the easiest SEC slate possible, they play the entire bottom half of the conerence.
- Vandy is also "on their own," not interacting with any of the other contenders. They play v Auburn, v Kentucky and @ Tennessee. I have them at 21% to win out. They'd be a lock at 10-2.
- OU and Mizzou will knock one out. If OU wins, they have to also survive Bama and LSU. So, the winner is pretty unlikely to also survive.
- Bama plays three tough games, but will be favored in all 3 and only needs to win 2.
- ATM has two tough games, @ Mizzou and @ Texas, but might not even need to win either. Best case scenario for the SEC is that they lose to Texas. Bubble teams will be rooting for them to win out.
- Texas / UGA is the game with the most playoff juice on the line.
- If Texas wins, they have home games vs Arkansas and ATM and even some slight equity as a 9-3 team on top of that. If they lose, they're drawing incredibly thin.
- If UGA wins, they're locked in to the playoffs, needing to win only one of @ Miss St and vs GT. If they lose, then they need to parlay both those games.
Most likely scenario is:
ATM, Ole Miss, Bama and UGA make it
Texas, Vandy, OU and Mizzou are victims to attrition down the stretch.
Best shot at 5 is either those four plus Vandy winning out, or those four plus Texas winning out, and UGA holding serve. If UGA is out, that means that Texas is very often in.
There's about a chance Bama loses 2 of their last 3 to fall to 9-3. I think this might drop them out, although it would give a lot of life to LSU and/or OU who beat them.
Four is most likely, but five is definitely more likely than three at this point.
I have:
Texas A&M 99%
Ole Miss 91%
Alabama 86%
UGA 86%
Oklahoma 27%
Vanderbilt 21%
Texas 17% (my biggest short, and a huge diff vs Vegas)
Mizzou 3%
Yeah, Iowa not being ranked is kinda frustrating. Only two losses were to ranked (at the time) teams and they gave the #2 team their closest game all year. Did well against everyone else. Lack of a big ticket win is killing them
Oregon and USC coming up, wouldn't sweat it too much.
win those 2 and Iowa should explode up the rankings
B1G is fairly straightforward with one big question mark:
It's Ohio State (100%), Indiana (100%) and probably one of:
73% Oregon
10% USC
8% Washington
7% Iowa
With 10% Michigan off to the side
Oregon plays @ Iowa, v Minnesota, v USC, @ Washington, so if they win out they KO, and Iowa and USC play each other for good measure.
What happens if Oregon loses exactly 1 of those games to finish 10-2 and the team they lose to wins out? That's the big question. In that scenario, Oregon's finishing with probably 1 or 2 ranked wins and 2 losses, and they'd have a h2h loss to another 10-2 B1G team.
Michigan plays @ NW, @ Maryland and home v Ohio State. They're obviously dead if they lose any game. They have two fine losses @ OU and @ USC. They have 1 solid win so far v Washington (and a so/so one @ Nebraska), but beating Ohio State would surely vault them into the playoff.
Most likely scenario is 3
The big 12 is easy:
The winner is in (obviously) and then their shots at 2 are:
11-1 Texas Tech losing in the final
12-0 BYU losing in the final
11-1 BYU losing in the final?
The bubble is just too crowded to see 10-2 Utah getting an at-large bid barring absolute bonkers chaos, and 10-3 Utah that loses in the final ain't getting it done either.
10-2 Cincy no chance
TUESDAY
7:00:00 PM Massachusetts 10.5
7:00:00 PM Akron -10
7:00:00 PM Miami (OH) 3.5
7:00:00 PM Ohio -3.5
WEDNESDAY
7:00:00 PM Kent 2.5
7:00:00 PM Ball State -2.5
7:00:00 PM Northern Illinois 14.5
7:00:00 PM Toledo -14
THURSDAY
7:30:00 PM Georgia Southern 6.5
7:30:00 PM Appalachian State -5.5
7:30:00 PM UTSA 14
7:30:00 PM South Florida -13.5
There is a SIX WAY TIE at the top of the AAC right now. Navy, Memphis, UNT, Tulane, USF and ECU are all tied with one loss. USF looks to stay that way.
FRIDAY
8:00:00 PM Houston 1.5
8:00:00 PM Central Florida -1.5
9:00:00 PM Tulane 6.5
9:00:00 PM Memphis -5.5
Not quite an elimination game, but given that there are 6 teams with 1 loss, it's probably an elimination game.
9:00:00 PM Northwestern 14.5
9:00:00 PM USC -14.5
Pretty good fare for a Friday night! USC looks to keep their playoff hopes alive.
SATURDAY
12:00:00 PM James Madison -12.5
12:00:00 PM Marshall 13.5
12:00:00 PM Southern Miss -5.5
12:00:00 PM Arkansas State 6.5
12:00:00 PM Temple 7
12:00:00 PM Army -6.5
12:00:00 PM Georgia -7.5
12:00:00 PM Mississippi State 7.5
UGA has made a habit of dramatic escapes this season. Will it finally catch up with them? If they lose here, the UGA/Texas game seems like it might be an elimination game.
12:00:00 PM BYU 10.5
12:00:00 PM Texas Tech -10.5
Massive amount of playoff equity on the line for each team here. It's a shame the B12 has to cannibalize itself like this.
12:00:00 PM Colorado 6.5
12:00:00 PM West Virginia -6
12:00:00 PM SMU -10.5
12:00:00 PM Boston College 12.5
12:00:00 PM Indiana -15.5
12:00:00 PM Penn State 15.5
I mean, PSU does still have a ton of NFL talent and they are playing at home. With Wisconsin and Purdue on deck, this is the Hoosiers' most significant obstacle to an undefeated season and likely first round playoff bye.
1:00:00 PM Missouri State 8
1:00:00 PM Liberty -7.5
1:00:00 PM Ohio State -28.5
1:00:00 PM Purdue 29.5
1:00:00 PM Bowling Green 2.5
1:00:00 PM Eastern Michigan -1.5
2:00:00 PM UAB 3
2:00:00 PM Rice -2.5
2:30:00 PM Maryland -1
2:30:00 PM Rutgers 1.5
3:00:00 PM UNC Charlotte 28.5
3:00:00 PM East Carolina -28.5
3:00:00 PM Tulsa 4.5
3:00:00 PM Florida Atlantic -3.5
3:00:00 PM Louisiana Tech -4.5
3:00:00 PM Delaware 5.5
3:00:00 PM Florida International 1.5
3:00:00 PM Middle Tenn. St 1.5
3:00:00 PM Jacksonville State 1.5
3:00:00 PM UTEP 1.5
3:30:00 PM Texas A&M -7
3:30:00 PM Missouri 7.5
Mizzou tries to stay alive in the playoff race. ATM is locked in with a win. With a loss, they'd need to avoid losing both of their last two, vs USCe at home and @ Texas.
3:30:00 PM Kansas 6
3:30:00 PM Arizona -4.5
3:30:00 PM Iowa State 6.5
3:30:00 PM TCU -6.5
TCU plays BYU, Houston and Cincy, so if they win out they're extremely live to make the B12 title game.
3:30:00 PM Duke -8.5
3:30:00 PM UConn 8.5
Duke is currently the plurality favorite in the ACC title race. If they lose here, they set up an insane possibility where they may well not be one of the top-5 rated conf champs even if they win the ACC.
3:30:00 PM Syracuse 28.5
3:30:00 PM Miami -28
Miami looks to recover from their 2 losses in 3 games
3:30:00 PM Oregon -5.5
3:30:00 PM Iowa 5.5
More than half a playoff bid of equity on the line here. Iowa is 25 with a win, 0 with a loss. Oregon is 85 with a win, 40 with a loss
4:00:00 PM Georgia State 7.5
4:00:00 PM Coastal Carolina -7.5
4:00:00 PM Kennesaw State -8
4:00:00 PM New Mexico State 9.5
4:00:00 PM Auburn 7.5
4:00:00 PM Vanderbilt -7
Vandy has v Auburn, v Kentucky and @ Tennessee, and needs to win out
4:30:00 PM Stanford 9.5
4:30:00 PM North Carolina -8.5
4:30:00 PM Washington -10.5
4:30:00 PM Wisconsin 11.5
Washington also trying to keep their dark horse playoff hopes alive
5:00:00 PM Texas State -2.5
5:00:00 PM Louisiana-Lafayette 2.5
6:00:00 PM Air Force 4.5
6:00:00 PM San Jose State -4.5
7:00:00 PM California 19.5
7:00:00 PM Louisville -18.5
Louisville is probably in if they win out (regardless of if they win the ACC) and is probably out if they lose a game (likely prevents them from winning ACC)
7:00:00 PM Florida State 2.5
7:00:00 PM Clemson -2.5
All I know is that after this game, these teams will be a combined 8-10.
7:00:00 PM Wake Forest 6.5
7:00:00 PM Virginia -6.5
Virginia seems to pull a miracle out of its ass every single week to survive some random, deeply mediocre ACC team. Cal was its latest victim. Can Wake Forest do it?
7:30:00 PM Nevada 11
7:30:00 PM Utah State -10
7:30:00 PM Navy 25.5
7:30:00 PM Notre Dame -25.5
Win out and (probably but not definitely) in for Notre Dame.
7:30:00 PM LSU 10.5
7:30:00 PM Alabama -10.5
I think LSU is still totally dead at 9-3, but you never know. Bama can afford 1 loss, but probably not 2. A loss here would generate huge pressure against OU and Auburn.
7:30:00 PM Florida -3
7:30:00 PM Kentucky 3.5
9:00:00 PM Nebraska 3
9:00:00 PM UCLA -2.5
9:30:00 PM UNLV -5.5
9:30:00 PM Colorado State 6
10:00:00 PM Sam Houston 20
10:00:00 PM Oregon State -18.5
11:00:00 PM San Diego State -7
11:00:00 PM Hawaii 7.5
Record 29-30. Superlocks: 3-7
Here's the LOCKS of the week:
Maryland -1.5 (-108)
Navy +25.5 (-112)
UCLA -3 (-110)
Florida -3 (-115)
Vandy -6.5 (-135)
Mizzou: +7.5 (-130)
$20 to win $781.40
Superlock of the week: UCLA is the one. Nebraska officially has nothing to play for and their QB is out, plus they have to go on the road. West coast games are never easy (unless you're Ohio State/IU). UCLA -3 is about as free as it gets.
12:00:00 PM Indiana -15.5
12:00:00 PM Penn State 15.5
I mean, PSU does still have a ton of NFL talent and they are playing at home. With Wisconsin and Purdue on deck, this is the Hoosiers' most significant obstacle to an undefeated season and likely first round playoff bye.
Yeah Cig and and all that, but this spread feels high. As you said, PSU still has a ton of high level recruits. Whether or not their season is screwed, theyre totally capable of waking up and deciding to have a great game. Playing in Happy Valley just adds to that
Yeah Cig and and all that, but this spread feels high. As you said, PSU still has a ton of high level recruits. Whether or not their season is screwed, theyre totally capable of waking up and deciding to have a great game. Playing in Happy Valley just adds to that
IU spreads are basically unbettable right now. You can't bet on IU because it feels like you're laying too many points. You can't bet against IU becuz it's as scary as fading the 27 Yankees.
Yeah Cig and and all that, but this spread feels high. As you said, PSU still has a ton of high level recruits. Whether or not their season is screwed, theyre totally capable of waking up and deciding to have a great game. Playing in Happy Valley just adds to that
Counterpoint: Penn State is quarterbacked by something known as an Ethan Grunkmeyer.
IU spreads are basically unbettable right now. You can't bet on IU because it feels like you're laying too many points. You can't bet against IU becuz it's as scary as fading the 27 Yankees.
Seriously. Every week it's like "man can I really lay 25 points on a team that probably has less NFL talent than their opponent? That feels like too much"
And then every week they go out there and beat their opponent so viciously it feels like they need to bring back the mercy rule.
Indiana football = Houston basketball
just relentless attack for the entire length of the game
I flicked in more on notre dame no at +300. Think they playoff line hasn't adjusted for the Pitt game line. Plus they may just be left out anyway some small amount.
Dude, at this point there's about a million times greater chance Notre Dame gets IN at 9-3 than gets left out at 10-2. And by that I do not mean there's a good chance they get in at 9-3.
A little high for my taste; I just can't get over the complete inability to run the ball against any opponent. Most of our other gobsmacking flaws I am able to explain away like "we just have a more liberal idea of 'garbage time' than most" or "sometimes the best defense is a mediocre defense" or "any snap before the playclock expires is a good pace" but this one is just weird. Even our 400 lb guy is getting stuffed at the line now.
Dude, at this point there's about a million times greater chance Notre Dame gets IN at 9-3 than gets left out at 10-2. And by that I do not mean there's a good chance they get in at 9-3.
It's about 10,000 times more likely they get left out at 10-2 than they get in at 9-3 (to be clear, still not that likely)
Consider:
11-2 Alabama SEC champ (beats LSU and Auburn, loses to OU)
11-2 ATM SEC runner up (loses to Texas, then loses to Bama in SECCG)
11-1 Ole Miss (wins out)
10-2 UGA (loses to Texas)
10-2 Texas (finishes with wins over ATM and UGA)
10-2 Oklahoma (beats Bama, Mizzou, LSU)
10-2 Vanderbilt
12-1 Ohio State B1G champ (lost to Michigan)
12-1 Indiana, B1G runner up
11-1 Oregon
10-2 Michigan (just beat Ohio State)
12-1 Virginia (ACC Champ)
10-3 Georgia Tech (ACC loser)
10-2 Miami (beat ND H2H)
11-1 Louisville, left out of the ACCCG
11-2 Texas Tech B12 champ
12-1 BYU B12 loser
11-2 South Florida AAC Champ
10-2 Notre Dame would be 18th!
The only team they are obviously ahead of in that bunch is GT. Vandy and Miami are close. Probably ahead of Vandy. No clue about Miami. Miami has put a sour taste in everyone's mouth RIGHT NOW, but in this scenario, they're ending the season winning 4 straight, including @ Pitt, and they BEAT NOTRE DAME HEAD TO HEAD.
There are 7 at-large bids which means 12 non champs ahead of ND in the pecking order.
It's not crazy if 8 of those 12 win out.
Basically assume the 5 champs are Bama, Ohio State, Texas Tech, Louisville and whoever wins the AAC
That means you have 7 spots for:
- ATM is basically a lock already
- Ole Miss very likely to finish 11-1 and would be a lock (could see ND sliding past 10-2 OM)
- UGA is likely to go 11-1 and is a lock to be ahead of ND at 10-2 anyway
- Indiana is > 70% to finish undefeated, and is probably locked ahead of ND at 11-2 anyway
- Oregon v good chance to go 11-1 and might be ahead of ND at 10-2 anyway
So that's 5 spots that are extremely likely to be locked up, then for the two remaining spots you have:
- Texas is locked if they win out (involves beating ATM and UGA, both of whom are likely to make it even if they lose to UT)
- OU is locked in if they win out (involves beating Bama, who is likely to make it even if they lose)
- Vandy can win out and go 10-2 without affecting anyone
- Miami is favored to win out and go 10-2
- UVA good chance to win out
- BYU has a small chance to go 12-0 or 11-1 before losing in the chip (or Tech could go 11-1 and lose in the chip)
You probably only need two out of those six things to happen for ND to get left out!
ND is likely to end with zero top-25 wins. One if USC finishes 9-3, which just means Oregon gets 2 top-25 wins instead of 1
ND's wins are over:
BC, the worst team in the ACC
Arkansas, the worst team in the SEC
Purdue, the worst team in the B1G
4-3 NC State
The worst Boise State team in recent history
and a good win over USC
Remaining, they have the 2nd and 3rd worst teams in the ACC, a solid pitt team and an okay Navy team that is proably gonna finish with 3 or 4 losses
I think ND is gonna be ranked 13th tonight, behind Oklahoma, Louisville and UVA. And that's really 14th, because it doesn't include the AAC winner.
and then Miami and Michigan both have a shot to jump them if they win out. Miami just needs to get close enough that h2h matters
local pundants posit lanning has constructed oregon football upon a foundation of structrual adaptability
after the end of the third quarter window i predict more kinnick kids will be waving toward players on field instead of the reverse after the first
Is there a way to bet that ND will be taken over Miami for CFP if they both finish 10-2?
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Miami dead unless there is chaos
Damn Texas tech above Oregon a bit crazy.
The punishment of Miami is an overreaction. they've lost two incredibly close games to two solid teams. They have one marquee victory and three that will end up looking pretty solid (USF, Florida, FSU). Having them a billion spots behind a ND team they beat who has the same record and only one good win is too much. They should roll through the next 3 and @ Pitt in the season finale will probably be for a playoff spot.
zzzzz
Glad to see Texas Tech jump ND, which they should
nailed it
Oklahoma should also be ahead of ND. They have two great wins, vs Michigan and @ Tennessee to ND's one. Their losses (to Ole Miss and Texas) are extremely respectable. vs Auburn and @ USCe are also solid wins.
zzzzz
The Texas overreaction is classic SEC bias. Congrats on hanging on to beat Vandy by 3 at home? This is the team that needed miracles to beat Mississippi State and Kentucky the last two weeks.
zzzzzz
Georgia Tech should correctly fall like a rock. They've beaten nobody, had several close calls.
nailed it
Memphis is ranked too high. Why are we just ignoring the fact that they LOST TO UAB?!?!?!?
nailed it
Tennessee has no good wins, just hanging on to their ranking based on the fact that they lost close to good teams.
nailed it
Iowa also has no good wins, but they've rolled through their last 3 103-27, and lost to Indiana by 5 which is looking better and better. If Tennessee can be ranked based on close losses, why can't Iowa?
nailed it
Cincinnati should not be ranked.
nailed it
Pitt lost to one of the worst WV teams ever, but since switching to Heintschel they've looked incredible. They get a bye and then ND at home.
nailed it
BYU scores really high on all the pubicly available metrics, so it's not that surprising that they're high.
They're actually not that high in Vegas, but committee doesn't have Vegas ratings
Having ND at 10 hews heavily on power ratings along with Utah, as does dropping Cincy, Memphis and UVA
Texas high just makes no sense, their metrics actually aren't great, and their eye test isn't good, and their resume isn't good. Just helmet logos.
Pitt's numbers aren't great either and nor is their resume, but eye test they're on fire
beat syracuse by 30 this weekend and hold serve. BYU loses @ Texas Tech, but stays ahead of Miami
Week 12, pummel NC State
Bama beats 12 OU
Duke beats 14 UVA
UGA solidly beats 11 Texas, handing them their 3rd loss
BYU loses again to TCU
13 Utah loses @ Baylor
Miami rises from 18 to 13
Week 13, Miami wins @ VT
(If BYU didn't lose to TCU, they can lose here @ Cincy)
(If OU didn't lose to Bama, they could also lose here to Mizzou)
Miami stays at 13:
7 Texas Tech
8 Oregon
9 ND
10 Louisville
11 Vandy
12 GT
13 Miami
Week 14, Miami wins @ Pitt
Vandy loses @ Tennessee
GT loses @ Georgia
7 Texas Tech
8 Oregon
9 ND
10 Louisville
11 Miami
Louisville wins the ACC, Tech wins the B12, Miami is in at 11 and AAC winner is at 12.
this isn't even factoring in:
- Oregon could lose @ Washington which might drop them out
- Louisville could lose (to Pitt, @ SMU, Kentucky or Clemson) which would put Miami and ND right next to each other, which would force Miami's H2H advantage
- ND could just straight up lose @ Pitt
If Louisville wins out I have to think they'll jump 2-loss Utah and ND at some point. Although they will then annoyingly probably have to play in the ACCCG which will then give them a chance for another loss.
Best case for them is UVA runs the table, GT loses to Georgia, then loses again in the ACCCG.
Louisville also plays Clemson, @ SMU, and probably 5-6 Kentucky which is still "an SEC team" which will help them out
