NCAA Football 2025

And in that scenario Oregon is also 10-2 (lost to USC)

Ran a few thousand ACC sims around Louisville / Clemson

I have Louisville 12% to win the conf if they win tonight, 0% if they lose

Miami is 5.9% with a Clemson win and 3.8% with a Louisville win.

Duke, UVA and GT all gain a couple of percentage points if Louisville loses

I am thinking Oregon is well behind in this scenario. Best win at Iowa (who has at best 3 losses) and no h2h connectivity in their favor.

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Yeah, in the crazy world we're playing in, ORE is 100% out.

IU at 12-0 and tOSU at 11-1 are 100% in.

The problem is how you weigh 10-2, B1GCG loser USC (with a h2h loss to OU and h2h win over tOSU) vs. the 6 SEC teams you've got beating each other. Which one do you keep home at that point.

You've got:
2 B1G
5 SEC
1 B12
1 ACC
1 G5 (or 2 G5 and 0 ACC I guess if somehow they're ranked higher, but that's not really important)

Those spots are locked in and that's 10 of 12 spots with USC, ND, and the 6th SEC team left to fight over the last 2.

basically, the maximum number of "deserving" teams is:

ACC:
10-2 Miami
ACC Champ

B12:
11-2 Texas Tech, second loss is in the B12CG. Ranked wins over Utah and BYU, only reg season loss was to ASU without QB
12-1 BYU, B12 champ
10-2 Utah, two wins over top-25 teams

B1G:
12-1 Ohio State B1G champ
12-1 Indiana runner up
10-2 Michigan, beat OSU
10-2 USC, wins out
10-2 Oregon

SEC:
11-1 ATM, SEC champ (lost to Texas)
11-2 Ole Miss, runner up
10-2 UGA
10-2 Texas (beats UGA and ATM)
10-2 Alabama (lose to OU beat Auburn)
10-2 OU
10-2 Vandy

Other:
10-2 ND
11-2 USF G5 champ

That's a max of 19 teams that under normal circumstances are "deserving" and you'd have to get rid of 7 of them which seems absolutely bonkers

Oregon, Vandy, Utah and Miami are the first four out. No idea who the other 3 that get dropped are. ND, USC and... Ole Miss? What if Ole Miss beats ATM instead of hte other way around? Do we remember that Bama lost to FSU and drop them as well? Do we drop Michigan too and somehow go with 6-2-1-1-1 with six SEC teams, which seems preposterous?

I'm not even including 10-2 Louisville and 10-2 GT on this list either.

I think the odds that we end up with something like 14 "deserving" teams are pretty high and they basically just have to pick out of a hat for the last couple. (Bad news if you're not a $$$$ team)

For the record, I will not deign to entertain any of these myriad possibilities. It's obvious to me Michigan is getting in. Therefore I am currently utilizing all my precious free time worrying about how Michigan comports themselves in the first round.

The minimum number of "deserving" teams (only including games where it's actually plausible that somebody loses)

ACC:
UVA wins the conference, that's 1
GT loses to Pitt, beats Georgia, then loses to UVA to finish 10-3 with one ranked win
Miami beats Pitt, loses to NC State or VT
Louisville loses to Clemson

B12:
Texas Tech wins out, Utah loses again, BYU loses again then loses in the chip, easy, that's 1

B1G:
OSU / Indiana are both in
Oregon loses to USC and Washington, USC loses to Iowa, Michigan loses to OSU
So that's 2

SEC:
ATM wins out
Bama loses to OU and Auburn
UGA loses to Texas and GT
Ole Miss loses to Florida and Miss St
Texas loses to ATM and Arkansas
OU beats Bama but then loses to LSU and Mizzou
Vandy loses to UT or Kentucky

ND loses to Pitt

So basically the minimum number of deserving teams that is remotely plausible is the 5 champs + 1 extra B1G school. So you've got somewhere between 6 and 19, and the median is something like 13 or 14

9-3 Texas or OU feel deserving though I get why you didn't include them.

Texas playing the extra @OSU game gonna bone them.

Yep. They are deserving and given the likely logjam 10-2 situation, they are gonna get screwed. There is simply no rational reason to schedule tough nonconference games. Even Michigan is burning for that. Replace the Oklahoma game with Central Michigan, and Michigan is in the top 10 right now. So dumb.

None at all. And with conferences this large, you can have a schedule made almost entirely of bottom dwellers (IU last year, A&M this year, etc. etc.).

Someone should suggest smaller, more regional conferences. Maybe have the B1G just be teams from the midwest, and have 10 or so teams along the Pacific Coast. That kind of thing

USC is also being punished for scheduling ND, yet another example. They'd at least be in the discussion at 10-2 if they lost close to Oregon and Illinois only.

You get punished for a loss and then you dont even get a significant advantage for a win. Miami isn’t going to be selected over ND when they have the same record.

SEC and B1G teams especially should schedule absolute patsies. They get enough cache from beating their in conference opponents

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Honestly. If you just went blind resume, Miami's is and would be better than Notre Dame's if both are 10-2. It shouldn't really matter that Notre Dame is a "name" and "looks good" they lost head to head to Miami.

That being said there's 0% chance Miami gets in over ND.

as for any oregon hope tonite
by the pricking of my thuMb soMething wicked this way coMes

They've favored by what, 40 points? The GOATphers are bad.

I have a feeling a clempsoning may still happen here

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Oh LOLuisville

Classic movie.

Texas A&M has the best win in the SEC vs ND. Another way of saying it, is that for OOC A&M has the only good win.

things escalated quickly for ND

I know it's just the first quarter, but ATM is down 10-3 to USCe

What would 10-2 ATM have that 10-2 Miami does not?

17-3 after a strip six...

A&M is cooked.