NCAA Football 2025
Not sure who will win this year, hopefully Arch goes nuts and UT can kick the door in after making the quarterfinals the
Rebels are cooked
Red zone playcalling so bad.
Lol got 'em
Holy **** uga onside kick
If Texas somehow sneak into the playoffs after this it is criminal.
Mendoza not doing his heisman chances any harm either, Sayin with a relatively quiet outing (in a blowout) and Simpson meh in a loss as a favourite.
We need someone called Fernando winning the Heisman.
Mendoza not doing his heisman chances any harm either, Sayin with a relatively quiet outing (in a blowout) and Simpson meh in a loss as a favourite.
We need someone called Fernando winning the Heisman.
Cig put Frenando back in after he clearly got a concussion so he could throw another TD and set the school record at home. Plus they've still got Purdue after the bye. Felt like at least part of that was definitely Cig wanting a Heisman winner to help recruiting.
Texas will need complete chaos to get it now.
Everything pointing to about 15 teams at 10-2 or better now
Does Arch Manning practice deep throws with his receivers?
I don't think he does.
Ok, first thing Texas needs is TCU to beat BYU.
Let's change the channel and see how that's going.
Ok so projecting the rankings
1 OSU
2 Indiana
3 ATM
4 UGA. It's possible UGA jumps over ATM. ATM's resume is not incredible, and UGA beat the doors off of texas, but I think it's still sort by losses
5 Texas Tech - Certainly not jumping UGA on a day where UGA beat UT that badly and certainly not getting jumped by OM when OM struggled to beat UF and TT won by 500
6 Ole Miss - if Oregon beats USC, Oregon will move ahead of OM, but as of now they're both 1 loss teams with light-ish resumes and OM has the best win (OU)
7 Oregon
8 Oklahoma - OU has wins over Michigan, @ Tenn and @ Bama. I think that gets them past ND even though ND's "eye test" is great. And, they should be ahead of 2-loss Bama with h2h and should be behind 1 loss OM with h2h. I don't think they will jump Oregon, but it's not impossible
9 Notre Dame - picked up a big road win over a ranked opponent, USC continues to impress
10 Alabama - the big question is where Alabama will drop to. The committee will now reevaluate the fact that they did lose to 5-5 FSU. I could see them at 9 ahead of ND, and I could see them at 11, behind BYU.
11 BYU - Solid win over TCU, and their computer numbers are great. Could easily see them ahead of Bama, and totally possible (albeit unlikely) ahead of ND
12 Utah, seems obvious
13 Miami - I think Miami (beat NC State 41-7) jumps idle Vandy.
14 Vandy
15 Georgia Tech - It wouldn't be crazy if USC and/or Michigan jump GT, who barely beat 1-win Boston College for their 4th 1-score win against an extremely mid team
16 USC
17 Michigan
18 Texas
19 Virginia
20 Tennessee
21 North Texas
22 Missouri
23 Illinois
24 Houston
25 James Madison
The top-4 are in for sure
Texas Tech is in unless they lose to WV then lose again in the B12 champ
ACC champ
AAC champ / JMU
Now you have 12 bubble teams fighting for 7 at large spots:
Ole Miss and Oregon are obviously in at 11-1.
If OM loses to Cowbell in the finale, I think they are in a lot of danger. They'd have 1 good loss and 1 loss that's by far the worst of any contender. Their best wins are @ OU, v LSU and v Tulane which are pretty mid.
If Oregon loses to USC, they'd have no bad losses, but also no great wins, and also now that would add another 10-2 team into the mix that has h2h over them. If they beat USC, I think they jump Ole Miss, which gives them extra cushion if they lose @ Washington.
OU is a lock if they win out. They have two home games against solid opponents, Mizzou and LSU. In most years I think they're in at 9-3, but this year's logjam is too big
ND is 97% to win out, and is probably locked in. The Big-12 can certainly jump them. GT probably also is ahead of them if they beat Pitt and UGA and then lose in the ACCCG. The big question is if they end up adjacent to 10-2 Miami, whether h2h takes precedence.
Bama is in if they beat Auburn unless BYU beats Texas Tech narrowly in the B12cg. that would make them the first team out
BYU is in if they win the b12 outright. If they beat Cincy and UCF, I think they are ahead of Bama and ND, and then if they lose to Texas Tech again, it's super close. Probably like SMU last year depends on MOV
Utah needs to jump 2 spots:
- OU losing would probably be one of them
- Bama losing to Auburn would obviously be another
- ND somehow losing would obviously be one
- BYU losing a reg season game then losing the B12 title? It would obviously be enough IF BYU didn't happen to have h2h. Not sure what happens irl
- do they jump 10-2 Ole Miss and/or 10-2 Oregon? No clue
Miami
- Same as Utah, except they also need to jump Utah
- Would have less of an issue jumping 10-3 BYU
- same question about 10-2 Ole Miss and 10-2 Oregon
- Added bonus that Utah does not have - if ND is the last team in and Utah's the first team out, that's how it goes. If ND is the last team out and MIAMI is the last team out, do they invoke H2H?
Vandy
-IMO same as Miami, PLUS they have to jump Miami, PLUS they don't have ND h2h. I think Vandy is in trouble if they get jumped by Miami this week
GT
- I no longer think beating UGA would be enough. The rest of their slate sucks, and their computer ratings are horrible. They likely must win the ACC. The Pitt game is much bigger for them now than the UGA game
USC and Michigan
- USC has the advantage of being able to KO Oregon
- Michigan has an incredible amount of teams they must jump, but they'd have the single best win in the country to try and do it
If BYU loses 1 game, Utah wins most 3, 4 or 5 way ties at 6-2 to be the 2nd team in the champ, so that's actually a fine path for them too
Big-12 really wants BYU to win out. If they do, they have a great shot at 3 teams (11-1 TT, 11-1 BYU, the winner and the loser, 10-2 Utah)
If BYU loses a game, they probably get 1 team (TT beats Utah, and TT is the only team)
"Opponents' conference records" in the ACC is insane
UVA opponents 23-29
GT opp 22-31
Miami 23-29
SMU 22-33
Pitt 21-33
People always say this but it's simply not true. The 16/17th team cutoff will be over teams nobody cares about and that's EXACTLY how it should be. EG Utah getting screwed out of the 16th spot because they choose Virginia would not be a real story because nobody would care enough to read the article.
Right now people are talking about a 10-2 Michigan team potentially being left out after beating the #1 team in the country. And if Michigan gets in some other deserving 10-2 team will get ****ed. That's objectively absurd but that's the situation we're in because there's not enough slots.
People always say this but it's simply not true. The 16/17th team cutoff will be over teams nobody cares about and that's EXACTLY how it should be. EG Utah getting screwed out of the 16th spot because they choose Virginia would not be a real story because nobody would care enough to read the article. Right now people are talking about a 10-2 Michigan team potentially being l
But that's what's already happened.
When it was 4 teams, it was "we can go to 6 because surely the 7th best team won't have a legit gripe".
Now it's 12 and 16 feels like that point, but as soon as we do, we starting asking "Ok, how bad are Texas' 3 losses really?"
The fact is, we're already deciding on a post season where teams have the best/worst 2 losses when not long ago having 2 losses was entirely disqualifying.
But that's what's already happened.When it was 4 teams, it was "we can go to 6 because surely the 7th best team won't have a legit gripe".Now it's 12 and 16 feels like that point, but as soon as we do, we starting asking "Ok, how bad are Texas' 3 losses really?"The fact is, we're already deciding on a post season where teams have the best/worst 2 losses when not long ago having
My point is nobody will give a ****. Either it will be some 10-2 BYU/Virginia team that nobody cares about just missing the cut or say a 9-3 Texas or Michigan team just missing the cut. Either way nobody will care about those teams not being in.
I know the idea that there will always be controversy at the cutoff has been propagated for years but anyone who gives this 30 seconds of independent thought--I realize that most people, especially Americans don't have that ability but still--will realize it's just someone's made up story and there's no reason to believe it. Again nobody will really give a **** if some 9-3 Michigan team or 10-2 Virginia team gets left out. People may pretend to care for clicks but it wont be real just like the pretend controversy over what bubble NCAA basketball teams get left out isn't real.
Bottom line, We can't have a system where there's a decent chance a 10-2 B1G/SEC team gets left out. That is objectively a ridiculous outcome. There will be no ridiculous outcomes if we go to 16 teams. There will just be some whining that nobody cares about.
When people were discussing on expansion from 4 teams a few years ago:
"No one is going to give a **** about some 10-2 SEC/B1G team getting left out. If they want in, just win your games it's that simple."
Now:
Bottom line, We can't have a system where there's a decent chance a 10-2 B1G/SEC team gets left out. That is objectively a ridiculous outcome. There will be no ridiculous outcomes if we go to 16 teams. There will just be some whining that nobody cares about.
It used to be ridiculous that 1 loss teams would have a shot at the national title. Then 1 loss was ok, but a 2 loss team would be a joke. Now 2 loss teams are being left out is a ridiculous outcome.
Surely THIS will be the end tho...
12 Slots
Pencil in.
3 SEC
3 BUG
1 ACC
1 Big12
1 of ACC_or_Big12
1 G5.
1 ND.
with one slot remaining for drama.
GT
- I no longer think beating UGA would be enough. The rest of their slate sucks, and their computer ratings are horrible. They likely must win the ACC. The Pitt game is much bigger for them now than the UGA game
If GT upsets UGA then the SEC must donate its 4th slot to the 2nd ACC team. Even the corporate PC would have to notice that the SEC's playoff birthrights (Bama, UGA) lost their games to the ACC.
I don't know about the final slot. Maybe the #2 Big12 team gets told sorry but the ACC stole from the SEC and people will be outraged over the P2's 4th best team.
When people were discussing on expansion from 4 teams a few years ago:"No one is going to give a **** about some 10-2 SEC/B1G team getting left out. If they want in, just win your games it's that simple." Now:It used to be ridiculous that 1 loss teams would have a shot at the national title. Then 1 loss was ok, but a 2 loss team would be a joke. Now 2 loss teams are being left
Your extrapolation is invalid. Ok I'm gonna try this again. The reason the 4 team playoff wasn't a good solution is becuz it forced the committee to basically arbitrary choose between 1 loss programs. So you have ridiculous outcomes where one of the greatest teams of all time, 2015 Ohio State, gets left out. Or 2014 where Ohio State just randomly jumps TCU cuz TV ratings. Under this system the 2 loss teams were basically irrelevant and that was fine. Harsh, but fine. The problem was choosing one 1-loss team over another. Ridiculous outcomes where inevitable.
Ok now we have a 12 team playoff. Now 10-2 teams get to join the dance but we have the same arbitrary process where the committee gets to choose their favorite 10-2 teams over other 10-2 teams. Again, ridiculous, extremely unfair outcomes, are inevitable. It is obvious to anyone not braindead we need to expand this playoff system. We can't have a system that in theory could have to choose between a 10-2 Michigan team and a 10-2 ND team.
Ok so imagine a 16 team playoff. But but NOW the committee gets to arbitrarily choose between 3 loss programs!!! It's still a ridiculous process!!! No it is not becuz at that point nobody will really care. Nobody will care if a program like Illinois or BYU or some 9-3 mediocre Michigan/Texas/ND/Ect team gets screwed. They simply wont and anyone who claims otherwise is not acting in good faith. The "screwed over" fanbases in the 17th slot will whine about it for 5 minutes and then the story is over forever (like UNC did that one year they missed the bubble in basketball). All time unforgettable travesties like TCU 14, Ohio State 15, FSU 23 will no longer exist.
16 teams effectively solves this issue FOREVER.
