2025 NFL Game Thread – Week 13

Whether you fail after the first touchdown or fail after the second touchdown, you are a longshot to win. If you are going to fail at some point, though, knowing early is better since you have time to adjust.

Well first KC was only a 3.5 point favorite against Dallas. Second, I would not call a TD spread a "joke". You have to start getting into double digit spreads. Third, bookmakers set a market. They aren't making an opinion on anything except for how the public will perceive a team. Fourth, impossible to call an 8-3 team a "joke". Again, perfect example of how the public perceives the Bears.

Ya I'd rather lose later than earlier.

Thread on topic. Read comments, not just lol Greg

Here are the two arguments I can think of against going for 2 first:

1. You might be slightly more likely to make the 2pt-conversion when the defense is gassed and reeling from giving up two quick TDs, and the offense is flying high. The offense might get a better push in the trenches, and the defense might be more likely to make a mental mistake.

2. Maybe you get the ball back so quickly in a one-score game (incomplete passes/turnover), that you don’t need an onside kick when you miss the 2pt conversion. This is obviously dependent on time and timeout situation.

Possibly either of these 2 is enough to override the 5% chance of recovering the onside kick if you miss up front.

The fact that you HAVE to recover an onside kick if you don't covert on the 2p attempt is enough for me to kick the XP. Especially having all 3 TOs and the 2 minute warning with 3 minutes left.

Correction: You'll have to recover 2 onside kicks if you don't convert the 2p attempt.

Lmao as if this Bears team won in Philly. Nominal Bears fan here, gonna pretend I'm a bigger one than I am today.

A.J. Brown with 18 catches for 232 yards and 3 TD's in their last 2 games, finally getting the ball to their stud receiver! No need to shrug those shoulders, stand tall A.J.! Sure the team's not winning but you got to break a few Philly rolls to make a cheesesteak right?

This is the correct answer. You kick the extra point and make it a one possession game. This takes the onside kicks out of play. Onside kicks don't work often.

They knew right away after missing the 2pt conversion that the game was over.

You would still have to onside kick if you miss the 2pt after the 2nd TD.

This is true.

I think psychologically it's better to make it a one possession game and have some hope. After they missed the two point conversion it was game over. At least put some pressure on the Bears to keep the lead. Hope they make a mistake. Give your guy's a chance to make a play. This was all taken away by missing the conversion.

Right, but needing to recover one onside kick is surely better than needing to recover two.

It is the same number of onside kicks needed whether you miss one the first TD or miss on the second

How can we know if it’s a one possession game? If you are 8 behind, you still might need 2 scores to win the game.

At that point the best Philly could hope for was sending the game to over time. In regulation it would have been just a one possession game if they kicked the extra point.

The only reason to go for 2 on the first TD, with this little time left, is if your plan is also to go for 2 on the second TD to win the game in regulation, rather than kicking a PAT on TD2 to go to overtime.

There is probably some minor equity swing in the starting field position difference, but you either:

Go for 2 and miss, onside kick, stop, score TD/FG, another onside kick.

Or

Score TD and make PAT, kick deep, stop, score TD and miss 2pt, onside kick.

Both scenarios require 2 kicks.

This is valid angle that is likely not considered enough in the debate. But I also don’t think it’s the only reason to go for 2 on the down 9 decision.

I think going for 2 is a no brainer with more time left. With 3 minutes left it's not. I ballpark the threshold around 6 minutes. Maybe 5.

But regardless of time remaining, in either scenario you’ll need an extra possession if you miss the 2 pt, whether that’s on the first or second TD.

And by going for 2 on the first TD, you have more information to work with.

In this particular situation, the decision is probably only worth a very tiny fraction of a percent of win equity, because either way if you fail the 2pc, you will need an onside kick and have a minuscule chance of winning.

The reason to go for two first is to know how much urgency you need on offense because you know if you need one more drive or two. If they kick the PAT after the first one and then force a punt and get the ball back, the most-likely scenario is that they run the clock all the way down trying to get the touchdown, and thus leave themselves no time left after an onside kick.

OMFG stop ****ing saying this.

An 8 point deficit is not "a one possession game". It's a one-possession game ~48% of the time and a two-possession game the other ~52%. You don't ****ing know how many possessions it is until you try the 2PC. (By the same token a 7 point game isn't always a one-possession game either, but it is 90%+ of the time so people handwave that away.)

Which is why you try the 2PC first, so you have complete info and can proceed as needed with onside kicks and TO usage and selling out on defense and whatever else. Even if missing the try drains most of your win equity, you can do what you can to maximize what's left of it.

Knowing that you need 5 mins when there's 3 mins left does not help you.

We are really discussing what has been solved on here for 15+ years? You always go for the 2 points to get complete information. The only scenarios where you might defer is for weather or injury. Although I think in a weather related situation, that would only negatively impact kicking.

Amusing, ain't it?