** World Cup 2026 - USA, Canada, Mexico Thread **

Think Iran are going through, ridiculous ending though.

Scotland and Korea needed Egypt to win. That's bad for them.

Korea might still make it. Scotland very unlikely.

Lots of teams are incentivized to draw tomorrow. Both might be out.

[?] real life

Scotland was effectively knocked out when Ecuador beat Germany really, this probably officially KO'd them they were already under 5% coming into today. (edit--looks like it did)

Now that algeria/austria game very likely 0-0 draw to get both of them in.

That last 10 minutes of Iran Egypt delivered hard though as everyone knew the fifa pride game would.

edit--Iran on the bubble I'd guess. Way more 3rd place teams gonna end up at 4 then I initially thought. Korea will need serious help to get in, Algeria/Croatia to just lose somehow. Iran might even need that.

DR Congo is probably getting to 4 on uzbekistan, that moves korea out. Iran needs one of DR Congo not to win, that austria/algeria game not to be a draw, Croatia to not get a point, to get in. Senegal might be the only 3 point team that makes it.

Korea needs, Croatia loss, algeria loss, dr congo loss or draw. At least 2 of those.

Scotland not technically out yet, as there are 3 more groups to go. Scotland need all 3:

Uzbekistan to beat DR Congo, OR they draw.

Austria to beat Algeria by 2+ goals, OR lose by 4+ goals.

Ghana to beat Croatia by 3+ goals.

The first one is easy enough, but the last two are highly unlikely as both teams are heavily incentivized to play for 0-0 draws.

what are iran's live odds to go through?

The absolute most painful way to go out. Just get on the plane, it's embarrassing hanging around hoping someone helps us out.

Suspended on Betfair at the moment. I hope Uzbek win tomorrow which would see them through I think?

EDIT : The market just came back but liquidity not there yet.

I'd guess 60% in the marketplace? Normally higher since they'd just need one of three things to happen but uzbekistan sucks, and that austria game is going to be an extremely boring 0-0 game or I'll be surprised is a problem for them.

edit--looks like around 80%, thought dr congo would be a bigger fav than the market just from uz being that bad but nope

Polymarket has Iran at 76%

belgium isn't that good but they smashed the crap out of the usa a few months ago. Korea getting phased out for Senegal probably helps USA now, USA senegal just happened recently for a 3-2 result and that sounds about right or 4-3. Korea ain't doing a dang thing to Belgium. Senegal can score at least.

That side of the bracket in the middle of round 2 for several days, the US was definitely the best team in it's entire section until the final four. Obv that was never going to hold but it was hilarious looking at it.

USA have so far beaten Paraguay and Australia.

R32 Bosnia
R16 Egypt or Korea?

FIFA always want the host country to have a good tournament. They also like money and the USA is a huge market. Seems a bit rigged to me. Backing them to make the quarters @ double money seems a good bet but I can't be hooped with a country that calls it "Soccer" going any further than that.

R16 was that now it's Belgium or Senegal (unless Korea somehow stays in, but they need 2 of 3 things to happen for that as I posted above somewhere)

Thanks, I should have realised it would change now. Both of them are harder games tbf. I'm still backing them to make the quarters.

Or 84%

Last day of the group stages awaits tomorrow.

Croatia v Ghana
Panama v England
Colombia v CR7
DR Congo v Uzbekistan
Algeria v Austria (rigged potential)
Jordan v Argentina

was gonna ask how scotland are still live ..... looks like they're down to needing algeria and croatia getting beat, possibly bigly glgl

are they?

Croatia are super likely to get the point they need to overtake them
Congo likely to beat Uzbekistan I'd think
Algeria to lose to Austria (when Austria wants to take no risk) seems not so likely?

Iran have a goal difference of 0, which is pretty good.

They just need the Algeria vs Austria match to not end in a draw. Whoever loses that match is guaranteed to have a negative goal difference.

OR they need Congo to not beat Uzbekistan. They are favored but it's not guaranteed.

OR any Croatia loss vs Ghana will also do it.

They just need any one of those scenarios. Markets have Iran to advance at roughly 80%.

They (Scotland) need

Ghana by 3+
Austria by 2+
Congo not to win

This one is under 1%.

Not mathematically impossible but it's worse than a 1-outer. It's more like runner runner to a 1-outer.

Scotland need to go home, change manager, and look forward to the Euros.

I already bet on USA to make the Quarters and now I've bet on them to win the whole thing as well :( I can't stomach the possibility otherwise. Apologies fellow Euros and all South Americans/Africans/Asians.

Quietly nasty result for the US last night - now Belgium is our RO16 opponent if we beat BIH. I don't care if they're down - they're going to have the three best players on the pitch with Doku, Trossard, and De Bruyne. There is a very real scenario where we get beat 4-1 in that one.

3 points and -1 GD might've not been enough for us anyway will make me feel better if so

South Korea must be shitting bricks right now

I really really dont want to see it happen, mainly because Modric is my favorite footballer of the last 15 years, but I have this feeling Croatia will botch it vs Ghana tonight and not make the best #3's

Ghana is already on 4 points though so hope im wrong