EV and Hedging

EV and Hedging

Yo guys,
you finds your self in the following situation:
- Event: 4 playesrs competition. only 1 win. (players: A,B,C,D,)
- Position: bought (back) 2 units of player A winning @5 (fractional odds: 4:1).

some thinking:
Why i took this position?
=>Because i think is a +EV position (i.e. i have an edge).
How did arrived to the conclusion that i have an edge?
=> I've assume that there is one mkt that is giving me the efficient price, i.e. the "true" probabilities of this event. i then compare that price with other mkt.
==> the efficient mkt is @3 => therfore i see a miss price here. simply put: i can buy in one mkt @5 (1/5 implied probability) and sell the same thing on another mkt @3 (1/3 implied probability). Here im buying low and selling high (= making money). For the sake of clarity the efficient mkt is an exchange (this is why im saying: you can sell (i.e. lay)).

NOW the question: I found a +EV bet by comparing the (assumed) "true" probabilities of the efficient mkt with another mkt and found a difference between the two. Should i closed the trade and hedge on the efficient mkt and capture all the EV or shall i be naked, not hedge, and run the bet till expiring?

My thinking is the following: since the the true probabilities are given from the efficient mkt, the trade on the efficient mkt is by default a 0EV trade (those are the true probabilities), therefore i shuld hedge and capture all the EV that ive estimated in this bet. Moreover the EV that im estimating is the same if i hedge or not(ofc), the difference is the risk if i hedge ot not. Im reducing my risk (variance of result here) by hedging with a 0EV hedge (i.e. by hedging im assuring to get the EV in all scenarios, actually looks like it will not be an expected value but a sure value => Im gettin a $$ amount equal to the EV in all the 4 scenarios.)

What do you think? I saw a lot of discussion about not heding vs hedging ecc.
Am i doing any logical mistake in my reasoninig? i would love to have a discussion on this.

Cheers,

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24 January 2021 at 11:11 AM
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4 Replies


Earlier posts are available on our legacy forum HERE

dan, it looks like your article is gone (never knew 2p2 was still doing the mag), you have any alt links for it?


FYI, below is a link of a reference Dan used for his article that may be of some help:


thanks for the rec ph

i don't like ev personally (his autism is at 11 and he thinks everyone is out to get him and he's a genius) but his stuff is always on point, i even migrated to using probit due to him 😀


We collaborated on his article. Just shoot me a pm if you have any specific questions

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