2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Lol Swoop you sure whiffed big time on this one. This thing is over. Trump is gonna win the popular vote too. That’s the only odds left on the board.

i got smoked on PV ill say it..some of my bad analysis is in this thread...avg price around -200 on PM, i did not see trump winning the PV

whatever, market up 1.2% today maybe 1.3% tmrw and BTC is surging

Dems should win house assuming CA races play out as they sit now.

This is an utter bloodbath. PRESIDENT TRUMP BABY!!!!!

Hats off to the frog whale. I got cooked.

Harris popular vote might save me from homelessness. Kidding. It wasn't a crazy bet, but a big one. Harris +170 sure felt good at the time!

French polymarket whale is the new nate silver apparently

Got a bit in and lost, granted I did only think it was barely better than a flip and sized down compared to last few cycles overall

Congrats to everyone that won

America deserves what's going to happen the next 4 years now but Ukraine doesn't. I hope Europe step up to give them the help they need when Trump inevitably starts pulling aid.

Democrats absolutely have to nominate a straight white charismatic male in 2028 now. Idk if Newsom has the charisma needed or not but he has to be the frontrunner after this surely although being from California hurts

If Dwayne Johnson ever wants to run for President 2028 would be the time imo

And to anyone bragging about how much I lost sure I'm gonna lose 8k or whatever after winning 60 odd K last cycle. Yes, I was wrong about everything this cycle but my degree of certainty was lower so I had sized way down. By all means I lost this cycle but it could have been a lot worse financially it's the least I've had on an election in terms of units since 2004 and while in terms of raw dollars it's my biggest loss in a cycle ever in terms of percentage of bankroll lost its trivial.

One thing I may have been right about was dumping Biden could have been a mistake but we will never know.

Lesson for Democrats is charisma in a nominee is everything and they should not nominate any more female nominees until the boomers are dead.

Lesson for me is that polling is slightly more broken than I thought. All good onto the next

lol Biden wasnt doing **** man.....This loss is on him more than anyone for not letting the Dems run a primary. Harris wasn't a legitimate candidate, she would've got 2% in a primary and been out of there.

although the way this result shook out, not even sure that would've mattered

I won some this year thinking trump would win but I also sized down from biden four years ago--was right that harris was way overvalued in the south but I should've won a lot more very disappointed in myself, that LOL seltzer poll paused me firing more at the blue wall. I said trump should be a bigger favorite on this board and didn't fire the clip, doh.

yeah her career is probably over

kalshi was ****ing nuts today. biggest daily profit ever outside of MTTs while assuming close to zero risk (limited exposure to each candidate). once in a lifetime opportunity, should've taken work off.

congrats - i was bailed out myself because i've been too busy and drunk visiting old friends and college reunion to properly setup a plan and execute with kamala positions to hedge all the trump ones i made during kamala mania

then i felt like i missed the boat when others hedged before me and moved the market back to something i didn't want to take on kamala at

even luckier that i also missed the good prices on kamala popular vote, which i certainly would have backed the truck up upon

all i got is predictit - if you notice it's a smaller investment size because i closed out the bad positions at heavy losses before they tanked to zero (god bless those hodlers)

got raked over the coals in my arizona senate position, was the most profitable one a few weeks ago so pretty annoyed i didn't realize that while the market shifted a lot, the R was still unlikely to win so should have closed that early at a healthy profit instead of panic selling once half the results were in at heavy losses

also underestimated how much trump would stomp as i ate it hard selling my gop by 35-64 (only to rebuy later once it became obvious he was going to shoot well beyond that margin) and then ate it hard 65-104 as i held that one instead of ejecting on that as well when i got out of my 35-64 (envisioned a trump victory but a closish ec tally)

not a bad 4 month return on a 5k deposit during the vp nom process

The amount of bias I read in this thread and on twitter from people who claimed to be objective gamblers was something else. Political betting is where biases get punished to the fullest extent.

People betting 80% of their profit for the year on Kamala because they were certain they were getting the right price. Political betting is brutally difficult. Congrats to those who can profit from it.

Looks like I was right that they needed a 600K-800K early vote lead in PA. He's going to win the state by 200K votes and they had a 400K early vote lead.

BTW, it's not a coincidence that the best poller in 2020 and 2024 was AtlasIntel, based in Brazil.

Congrats to the winners in this thread. I always love to see conviction pay off. I hope to see everyone here again in 4 years for the next round of bet Democrats every presidential election system.

GG MAGA backers. I got rekt and will be taking Tump’s position at McDonalds

strange things afoot at the arizona circle k - appears i could have gotten out at much better prices if i waited until today and bothered to see the breakdowns between mail in and live voting

looks like there's a huge split between gallego getting overwhelming majority of the mail in ballots which were counted early but lake doing much better in the election day voting

this is something i didn't pay attention too as i panic sold my shares in the midst of a freefall because every 5 min i waited the price got worse

my guess is lake is still a dog to win though - especially since the heavier republican districts have already had a greater percentage of their ballots counted, but agree it's definitely a much closer race than it appears on paper - don't regret selling though, because my losing electoral spread positions which i was going to be absolutely curb stomped upon if i didn't exit needed liquidity in order to be sold because i had so many nos in that market that i needed to either deposit more money or sell off positions in order to close

i don't think i'll ape back in at 17 cents, but would have def bough back in if it were at it's peak last night (at one point i believe i checked at it was 98/2 and was so proud of myself for getting out long before it reached that point

Chad's gonna Chad

Obv lost for the cycle but at least only had about 10% of the amount I had on Biden so it was relatively small and at dog price so w/e

Was close to a Trump sweeps swing states hedge but didn't fire it in the end, note to self, if polls close always back both candidates to win all the swing states due to correlation not just one side

Have sent to Cody to square up the one bet made in thread, i'm sure he'll confirm he's received.

Congrats to everyone who won this cycle and see you all in 2028

On that note if anyone wants to give me a price on Dwayne Johnson wins Presidency if he announces for President as EITHER a Democrat or Republican let me know. Would want the only if he runs condition as I don't expect him to, but if he runs I think he has an excellent chance as long as it's for either party's nomination not as an IND

Also a reminder to future me - Male D candidates are now 3-0 in the past 5 elections and female D candidates are 0-2. If the Democrats nominate a woman in 2028 don't be an idiot and learn from your mistakes

Also if it appears close take both sides to win all of the swing states (I was SO close to doing that as a hedge this cycle but only had dust on Harris side and nothing on Trump side despite decent conviction that the market always underrates how correlated the swing states are). I'm assuming +300 to +400 will be available next cycle effectively on 'either candidate -99.5' and I should bet that if it's available when the race is a 'coinflip'.

some free money still available on some markets on predictit

Swoop paid out promptly and professionally. Class act. I am glad we all can get together to discuss the election in a bi-partisan way.

what about gay guy?

I wrote in election thread about this when someone thought Buttigieg was most likely Dem candidate. I'm not sure America will be ready in 2028 for a gay president.

If they nominate him he won't win. Being gay isn't 'poison' politically the way it would have been 30-40 years ago, but it's going to be a negative unrelatable trait to the young male demo Dems are trying to reach for the most part. You just can't lose that 3% or whatever it'll cost him.

Buttigieg is a smooth talker to some degree but they need a charismatic and masculine dude to reverse losses among young men; unfortunately too many non-college educated men of all races on the building site are not going to listen to a 'fkn f----t' no matter how good a debater he is and how well he speaks.

Now on the other hand.... IF YOU SMELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL WHAT THE ROCK IS COOKIN'

If Dwayne is willing to risk half of the country hating him (he def feels that need to be loved by everyone with his movie choices etc) he absolutely can win imo and you just KNOW he wants to be president, surely Young Rock (the TV show) was a test for reactions there

The left has to build their own influence platform to speak progressive values in a masculine way towards young men that isn't preachy or shaming them. You can't be all like THE PATRIARCHY! BE ASHAMED OF BEING A WHITE MAN BECAUSE HISTORICALLY THEY HAD THE POWER! TOXIC MASCULINITY! etc and expect young men to vote for you.

They have to tailor their message to the working class, and actually sell the truthful message of 'economically speaking, you are actually better off voting for progressive parties unless you are wealthy, which most of you are not'. If they're ranting about trans rights, the working class will be tuned out and listening to the other guy.

If they don't learn from the experience and get the right infrastructure and messenger in place they won't win, if they can do that, they should since demographically the boomers are the next generation to die off but Dems need to turn it around quickly with Gen Z men or they're ****ed

This is pretty right. The problem is, both parties are set up to promote materially right wing, neo-liberal hawkish policy, wrapped in either L or R identity politics. because that is what brings in the money. Trump and Bernie were anomalies who in Bern's case, almost slipped through the cracks, and in Trump's case did.

Posting in the politics forum, I've been astonished at how many older Dems still live in 1999 and are informed entirely by like, MSNBC and the daily show. It's like Iraq never happened and they don't have internet connections.

I stumbled on this interview with Vance.

Yes, he is likely FOS. However, he was sitting down with some podcaster whose audience is probably 8x CNNs. He was having a natural conversation and expressing what seemed to be a coherent worldview. He explained how firms like Blackrock borrow at lower rates, which is part of why they have bought up so much residential property. And young people have gone from dreaming of home ownership, to realizing they will always rent, to worrying if they will even be able to pay rent.

The total antithesis of a Harris or Walz appearance, and far beyond the capabilities of either.

In 1998 MSM and duopoly land, issues like this simply aren't discussed, particularly from a big picture perspective. And, of course, most Ds and Rs are in favor of these kinds of economic shifts because they profit from them. Everyone over 40 "does their own research" which leads some to crazy town, but most are vastly better informed about how the world actually works, whether they are left or right.

Having celebrities worth $800 million lecture us about how we must vote, relying on divisive ID pols, and doing propaganda hits on Saturday Night Live is not the way anymore. Answering everything with a little canned speech that has nothing to do with reality isn't gonna work.

It's going to be very interesting moving forward, because the vast majority of the increasingly irrelevant MSM and politicians from both parties still exist in this outdated ideological narrative and they have no real incentive to change. Even if they lose elections, they make mountains of money individually by clinging to these narratives, whether they believe them or not.

The pool of people in either party who are even somewhat normal human beings, connected in any way to the reality young (or informed) people know, is quite small. Very few could do something like sit down and speak naturally, and explain what is actually going on with housing, or have answers on foreign policy that aren't like "America is the greatest country in the world and we are spreading democracy."

I agree that Buttigieg can't win, which is a shame, because I think he would be decent, even if he is somewhat controlled. I disagree that a woman can't win. The problem with the only two candidates so far is that they were forced upon the voters.

If you had a genuinely charismatic person, someone like Tusli Gabbard, they could easily in 2028. Unfortunately for her, JD is going to be next in line.

And I wouldn't be shocked if Michelle Obama ran in 2028. They have nobody that stands out as a great candidate, and I am sure the Obamas want revenge for what happened in 2024.

Trump's going to have a difficult time managing all the egos and ambitions of the people in his cabinet. There are going to be a lot of people vying for the job in 2028.

The View wants to censor the internet. Information should only come from "trusted" news sources. The irony is amazing.