NBA Props
Dipping my toe in the waters of NBA props,
Figured I'd start by building a handicapping model and specializing in one category. Been having a great time handicapping and tracking individual player rebound results. Gonna use this season as a trial run to see if I can become profitable and make the leap into the real money world next year.
Having said that, here is the Question... What is a reasonable ROI for NBA player props?
(I'm guessing with a little effort, it's potentially higher than against the spreads for full games)
5 Replies
2nd Quarter Results
246 Bets with 138 wins and 108 losses = 56%
Up 12.9 Units. ROI = 5.2%
3rd Quarter Results
242 Bets with 141 wins and 101 losses = 58%
Up 26.2 Units. ROI = 10.8%
post some picks and let me bet some
Didn't quite get to 1,000 bets, but close enough. Looks like I was able to answer my own question!!
Now is a good time to wrap up the data collecting and use the time during the All star break to study it thoroughly!
4th Quarter Results
226 Bets with 116 wins and 110 losses = 51%
Down 7.3 Units. ROI = -3.2%
Overall Results
970 Bets with 543 wins and 427 losses = 56%
Up 53.1 Units. ROI = 5.5% overall
Was at ROI = 7.0% until the last week (separate post coming out about that).
My prop ROI was always around 10-15% when I was doing this full time a while back. Its gotten a lot tougher since DFS came out. I think anything over 5% is great.
