positive r.o.i. MLB betting on underdogs against same division rivals
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I read on a couple of different sites that MLB underdogs could be a very good bet when playing their same division rivals under certain conditions
but the conditions were restrictive - and meant taking a long time to do a significant tracking
so I decided to track 100 games of all MLB underdogs when playing against their division rivals because I was curious about it
the results were quite astonishing
I now have 81 games - I don't think I need to go to 100 - I'm convinced - but I will track the next 100 games and I expect similar results - if the results are not similar - I will post about it
I have done several of these kinds of trackings - all but one were losers so I didn't post about them - and the one that won was not nearly as impressive as this
I kept waiting and kinna expecting a long losing streak to wipe out the winnings - that never happened
also, quite surprising was how many times the extreme fave - such as -190 got beat - meaning a large win for the dog
if you don't believe the results - I don't blame you - and I invite you to go back over the games at covers.com - the last day of my tracking was May 29
I always used the early a.m. line and so many times the fave gets bet down late so if my tracking was close to game time my results prolly would have been even better
an obvious question is whether or not this is an anomaly__________I don't think so______but as I indicated I will keep tracking for a very long time and I will find out for sure
RESULTS____________last 81 games______________MLB underdogs against their same division rivals_________:
43-38__________profit of $1485 based on $100 bets___________R.O.I.__________18%
the link is from the site that inspired me to do this tracking
note that the writer also found the dogs profitable in games against their division rivals, but the r.o.i. that he found is much less than what I found -
a possible explanation of this is that all of the great many newcomers to sports betting due to widespread legalization are more so betting on faves causing the lines to be skewed
https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/mlb-...
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3 Replies
Interesting. Betting early on games to get a better line is seeking something called closing line value (CLV).
In MLB what you state makes sense but not sure. Conventional wisdom is that ML, run lines, and totals are priced accurately IE hard to beat. I would suggest reading a couple of books Ed Miller has written on sports betting. Line shopping and handicapping are used to make profitable bets. I’m focused on MLB props and I guess my approach is mostly line shopping with some handicapping. Working on models for handicapping MLB props.
There are huge databases for MLB that are public. Lots of queries are feasible. Scrapers too are out there on the net.
Also helps to know a little about probability and statistics. This can help you evaluate whether or not your system is statistically significant enough (for lack of a better way to put it).
In MLB what you state makes sense but not sure. Conventional wisdom is that ML, run lines, and totals are priced accurately IE hard to beat.
Nah, baseball lines are garbage and very easy to beat for a variety of reasons.
As to the above strategy? Maybe? But totally not my style. I need an edge to the line to make a bet. I make my own lines every morning and bet the ones that are off (usually about half of them). So I could never bet the above strategy unless my line was showing an edge. Having an edge doesn't mean you will win each bet but when the dust settles at the end of the season all of those little edges add up quite nicely.
Nah, baseball lines are garbage and very easy to beat for a variety of reasons.
As to the above strategy? Maybe? But totally not my style. I need an edge to the line to make a bet. I make my own lines every morning and bet the ones that are off (usually about half of them). So I could never bet the above strategy unless my line was showing an edge. Having an edge doesn't mean you will win each bet but when the dust settles at the end of the season all of those little edges add up quite nic
You think almost half of the posted lines are off? How much difference between your number and what's posted do you need to consider the book's number off and betable?
