Betting Beyond Knowledge

Today I took the first step in my sports betting journey with the broker Vodds by depositing 10,000 euros. I plan to place bets of 100 euros each, and here is my first bet.

First Bet: Women's Kansas City — First Half Handicap 0
My first bet is on the women's Kansas City with a handicap of 0 for the first half. My decision is based on several key factors.

Portland's Lineup:

Absence of a Key Player:
Coffey S., one of the team's five key players, remained on the bench. Her absence on the field reduces Portland's chances of performing well in the first half.

Lack of Playing Practice among Main Players:
Klingenberg M. and D'Aquila I. are in Portland's lineup.
Klingenberg M. has played only 39 minutes in the last 6 games, indicating a lack of playing practice.
D'Aquila I. played the entire last match, but in 1.5 seasons she has only 508 minutes of playtime. This suggests that her skills are still insufficient for playing at this level.

Analysis and Conclusion:
The combination of these factors gives me confidence that Kansas City has a good chance to perform better in the first half, especially considering Portland's weakened lineup.

Ill bite. Why not.

What makes you think that any of what you just said isn't incorporated into the line already?

The next bet in my sports betting journey is the MLS Next Pro match between FC Cincinnati 2 and Huntsville City FC. My bet is a -0.25 handicap on FC Cincinnati 2 in the first half. Here’s why I made this decision.

Factors Influencing the Bet:

Home Team Lineup:
FC Cincinnati 2 has one of the best possible starting lineups, which significantly increases their chances of performing well in the first half.

Issues in the Visiting Team's Lineup:
Backup goalkeeper Elliot Panicco, who has spent the last 11 rounds on the bench without playing a single minute, will be on the field.
Huntsville City FC includes two players, Skinner J. and Perkins W., who are just beginning their careers at this level, and this is their first start.
Forward Perkins W., who has spent a significant portion of his career in the MLS, missed the last 1.5 years due to a severe injury and is now returning to play at the MLS Next Pro level. In 7 rounds with the team, he has played only 17 minutes, and today is his first start after the severe injury.

Analysis and Conclusion:
All these nuances lead me to believe that it makes sense to bet on the FC Cincinnati 2 handicap in the first half. I am confident that the strong starting lineup of the home team and the issues in the visiting team's lineup will give FC Cincinnati 2 an advantage in the first half of the match.

The next bet in my sports betting journey is the match between St Louis CITY2 and Sporting Kansas City II. My bet is a +0.25 handicap on Sporting Kansas City II in the first half.

Factors Influencing the Bet:
This bet is quite controversial. I rushed to place the bet, which led to an insufficient analysis of the data. Despite St Louis CITY2 having significant losses, with the main ones being Reid J. and Wentzel M., Sporting Kansas City II also has a serious loss in the form of Rindov C.

Although the situation with the starting lineup of Sporting Kansas City II looks slightly better, the high margin in this tournament makes me doubt that this bet will result in significant profits over the long term. At best, this is a near-zero bet.

Analysis and Conclusion:
Due to the high risks and insufficient analysis, I am not confident in the success of this bet. However, if Sporting Kansas City II can leverage their slight advantages in the starting lineup, they have a chance to perform well in the first half. Let's hope for the best but be aware of the possible risks.

The next bet in my sports betting journey is the match between Atl. Rafaela and Aldosivi. My bet is a 0 handicap on Aldosivi in the first half.

Factors Influencing the Bet:
Aldosivi has a 90% ideal lineup, with only the absence of Elias Torres slightly spoiling the taste of this bet, as he is the team's second top scorer with 4 goals. On the other hand, Atl. Rafaela is in a very poor situation with the absence of two players who also scored 4 goals each: Nazareno Funez and Lucas Albertengo. Additionally, a significant player, Franco Quiroz, who is approximately the seventh strongest in the team, is also absent.

To replace these key players in the starting lineup, very weak substitutes have come in:
Fuyana J., a 19-year-old who is playing his first season at this championship level and has not played a single minute yet, except for one full match in the cup.
Two forwards have been called in to replace the pair of top scorers who together have scored 8 goals:
Bautista Tomatis, who has 0 starts this season, 9 substitute appearances totaling 148 minutes without scoring any goals, and only 49 minutes last season, also without scoring.
Ivan Sandoval, who just joined the club yesterday as an emergency replacement after the injuries of the main forwards.

Analysis and Conclusion:
Given the significant absences in Atl. Rafaela's lineup and the weak substitutes replacing them, Aldosivi has a good chance to perform well in the first half, despite the slight disadvantage of not having Elias Torres. This makes me confident in placing a 0 handicap bet on Aldosivi for the first half.

Great question. Here’s the answer: I think some of the information is, of course, already taken into account. For example, if players have been injured for more than one round, there might have been some bets made based on that information. What is my plan to deal with this?

Firstly, at this stage of my career, I will be making most of my bets on championships with low limits, which automatically weakens the pool of bettors playing in these championships. As a result, news during the life of the line affects it less, and this also gives more time to analyze the information.

Secondly, I have set up parsing of the line of odds from the moment it is released until the start of the match. This allows me to see the entire life of the line on a graph for each match and analyze where and how the line moved, the likelihood that certain information has already been taken into account, and so on.

Lastly, I have very serious knowledge of how much a particular player influences the team’s results. For this, I analyze each player based on various parameters, which helps me understand how important each player is to their team. For example, for a central midfielder, I analyze how many passes go through them versus through others, through which zone the team’s sharpness is gained, and so on. It’s unlikely that many bettors analyze championships of this level and with such limits as deeply.

The main downside is the margin in such championships and first halves in particular. Precisely because of the very high margin, at the initial stage, I will choose only the most interesting matches where there was no line movement after the lineups were released. For example, I really liked the bet on the first half against Gotham W because they were missing 2 leaders: Gonzalez Rodriguez E., who had 2 assists and 2 goals, and Williams L., with 3 goals. The opponent, on the other hand, had a dream lineup, with 10 out of 11 players having started 11 to 13 matches out of 13 possible, which gives maximum cohesion to this lineup. And most importantly, all the results the team can boast of were achieved precisely with this lineup, and the results are very impressive. I was about to place the bet when someone placed a bet right before me, and the odds dropped from 1.76 to 1.67, after which I refrained from betting. Now, seeing the result, I regret it a lot. I wouldn’t have refused if the margin hadn’t been so huge, but due to the huge margin in this championship and such a drop in the odds, I was afraid the bet might cross the breakeven point and decided against it.

The start of the blog turned out to be pleasant! It's always nice to hit a small but positive variance at the beginning. The turnover amounted to 399.46 euros, and the profit was 241.38 euros.

Tomorrow I will continue to improve and develop. If there are opportunities for bets, I will definitely take advantage of them and add information to the blog.

The next bet in my blog is on the match between Trelleborgs and Osters. My bet is on the victory of the Osters team. Here are the reasons why I chose this bet.

Reasons for the Bet:

Just Finished Victory of Osters:
Osters confidently defeated Helsingborg 4-0 just 15 minutes ago. A very strong lineup took the field, and no players received injuries or suspensions. All this together looks very promising in terms of having one of the strongest lineups on June 30 when they will play against Trelleborgs. The team is in good form, as demonstrated by this victory.

Absence of a Key Player in the Trelleborgs Lineup:
Horberg F. from the Trelleborgs team received a yellow card, which was his third of the season. As a result, he will miss the next match due to a suspension for three yellow cards. This is a very important player for Trelleborgs: he played in all 13 matches in the starting lineup, and in 12 of them he played all 90 minutes, and was only substituted in one match in the 86th minute.
The entire team's play is built around this player. Firstly, he has made the most assists in the team. But the most indicative fact is that he made 596 passes in the first 12 rounds (excluding today's match), which is the 23rd highest in the league and the first in the team. All this shows how significant the loss of Horberg F. will be for Trelleborgs in the next round.

These factors make the bet on Osters' victory very attractive.

I thought the OP was very promising. It sounded like you were going to take a trans-rational approach where bets are divined by ouija board or strictly back dogs on the old adage everything's 50/50 it happens or it doesn't.

Instead it seems these bets are based entirely on nuanced sports knowledge? Aren't you falling for the devil's trick?

yeah was really weird to make an op that said sportsbetting has nothing to do with knowledge of sports and then each writeup is "this is all the knowledge i have on these sports which is why the bets will succeed