2016 Nomination and Election Betting Thread
Last time around the The 2012 US presidential election bettin... was created over 18 months in advance of the general election. We are already behind schedule.
Trump not to win nomination -750 (5Dimes). The general strategy with political betting is to fade the news cycle. A recent Rasmussen poll found that 57% of Likely Republican Voters now think Trump is likely to be the Republican presidential nominee next year, with 25% who say it’s Very Likely. I don't think we'll find much better odds than this.
Rubio nomination +600 (Bovada). I predict Trump's current popularity is actually increasing the likelihood of a Rubio nomination. Trump's current hard line view on immigration is spilling over into the rest of the field. This will ultimately back the R's into a corner among Hispanic/Asian voters leaving Rubio as the only viable path to general election victory, not to mention his otherwise strong favorability ratings.
Kasich nomination +1150 (5Dimes). His brand of "compassionate conservatism" is now anathema to grassroot Republicans and he will have a difficult time earning the nomination. However there is a lot of time between today and Cleveland. In that time I predict he will become known as "the only reasonable candidate in the field" and will gain popularity among Democrats and Independents. I want a small position in Kasich now that I will most likely unload for a small profit later in the year.
Sanders not to win Nomination -1050 (5Dimes). Like Trump, he has a devout minority following in the Democratic base but is not capable of becoming a party nominee. We will probably be able to get even better odds later, so only buy a tiny share at this price. Sanders will continue to get lots of favorable news coverage because the media needs something to talk about on the Democratic side and right now he's pretty much it.
Biden nomination +800 (Bovada). Hillary has struggled to demonstrate her viability as a candidate. If Biden enters the race (I would put this around 40%) he will immediately become a close contender to win the nomination. His odds will quickly drop so you want to be locked before any announcement.
