MLB over/under trend following system/strategy
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MLB o/u trend following system - almost 100 picks (pushes not considered) - from July 26 thru yesterday
58-40 - 59.6% winners - about 12.7% r.o.i.
the pick is when covers.com (click matchup and then trends) has both teams on the Game Total over trend - then the pick is over - or both on the Game Total Under trend and then the pick is under
covers is somewhat subjective in posting this trend - sometimes all games and sometimes just home or away
when I first saw this I didn't believe it would win because it doesn't consider the current pitchers which is so critical to the o/u
but I decided to track it anyway, and it did win and kept on winning
so, I can't explain why the non consideration of current pitchers didn't cause the picks to be nothing other than random
but does it matter what I can or cannot explain if it's a winner____?
there is some possibility that the good results were due to chance - but I don't think so
I will continue tracking until the end of the season and I will post those results
I make no claim to have made big bucks on this - I bet very seldom now - I just enjoy tracking trends with no handicapping such as this
very few of the trends I track are winners - most of them are worthless
I would like to see comments on this
https://www.covers.com/sports/mlb/matchu...
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1 Reply
Wouldn't it implicitly be taking into account the entire pitching staff if it's looking at aggregates? So you'd expect its accuracy in any given game to vary with the variance in pitcher performance? If a team's pitching staff is more consistent in quality from 1 to 5 and in the pen, then the trend will be more consistent for any given game. But if a team has a clear ace starter and/or a clear bad 5th starter, or an erratic pen, then the variance goes up?
