College basketball totals
I'm sorry if this is wrong forum but trying to see how to calculate one games chance of being the highest scoring game on the day based on the Over Under point line for the game.
For instance if there are 8 games and the over under totals are as follows
175
157
153
148
144
144
153
132
how would I calculate the percent chance that the game with an over under total of 175 would actually end up being the highest game total of the day
Thanks
Jimmy
2 Replies
Assuming separate teams; Take historical data, put it in a histogram and look at it and see if its normally distributed. If it looks like a bell curve, you are good. Take the historical difference between the line and average, Thats your errors. Compute the standard deviation of these.
If what I am saying is a lot of maths then just use the league average or 12.
Pop that into a Monte Carlo sim. This can be done in excel using norm.inv and rand.
The info to do MC is all over the internet. I assumed 12 and took a lot of guesses on your data and came up with around 60%
Not rly sure but this is what i would do. Thank you.
