MLB ladder picks
Any MLB bettors out there? I've been having some solid success with my ladder strategy so far this season, so I thought I would start a thread to share and track them. All bets are listed on FanDuel. Also, I use decimal odds because American odds are dumb.
What is a ladder strategy?
Some bettors refer to it as a bank builder but I prefer calling it a ladder. The strategy is simple: Start with a single unit on a bet that gives you a price around 2.00. If you win, roll the total amount into the next bet (the next step on the ladder). If you win again, do the same. As you progress up the ladder you pick slightly more chalky bets to balance the risk. The goal is usually to complete 5 steps, which if done right can usually win you 15-20 units. One adjustment I make is that once I reach step 3 I will scale down or round down my bets a tiny bit to ensure that I walk away with a small profit on every ladder that completes step 3 even if I lose on step 4 or 5.
I will list my picks using the following format: (Step level), Bet, Price, Wager-->Return.
I will also include a brief rationale for those interested.
Oh, and I refer to the Athletics as OAK just because.
Picks for Sunday, May 4
Starting mostly from step 1 today, with one step 3 still active.
(1) BOS -1.5, 2.00, $5-->$10 (Paddack stinks, Crochet is very good, BOS is one of the better offenses at home and vs righties, and is among the best wOBA over the past 7 days.)
(1) KC ML, 2.12, $5-->$10.60 (Gibson absolutely sucks and BAL's offense has really struggled. Have to go with KC for the price with Lorenzen on the mound.)
(1) OAK -1.5, 2.28, $5-->$11.40 (Sears vs Cabrera and OAK is actually one of the better road offenses by wOBA. I was also considering OAK team total over 4.5 for 1.93.)
(1) HOU/CHW o8.5, 1.93, $5-->9.63 (McCullers is making his return after several injury-plagued years, Wilson stinks, HOU is hitting much better lately, and the wind is blowing out. These two teams combined for 10 and 11 runs in the first two games of the series.)
(1) SEA ML, 2.46, $5-->12.30 (Great value on this bet. SEA's road offense is excellent and very good lately, and TEX's offense sucks.)
(3) SF team total o4.5, 1.77, $20-->$35.38 (Marquez is horrible, the wind is blowing out, SF scored 6 yesterday.)
(1) LAD team total o5.5, 2.20, $5-->11 (The line is actually 4.5 for 1.70 so I used the alternate line to get a better price. Elder is bad and LAD should be able to tee off on him today. LAD has scored 6+ in 8 of their last 10 games.)
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Mixed bag yesterday with a 3-4 record. Three ladders move on, including the step 3 moving to step 4.
Picks for Monday, May 5
(1) CIN ML, 2.24, $5-->11.20 (CIN hits much better on the road, ATL hasn't been scoring much lately, and Singer is better than Smith-Shawver. Can't resist the price for a CIN upset here).
(1) CHC team total o4.5, 2.26, $5-->11.30 (CHC has been one of the best offenses in baseball and they destroy lefties. Boyd is better than Roupp. Should be easy for them to score 5 today).
(1) CHW F5 ML, 2.64, $5-->13.20 (I know CHW is awful but they hit better on the road and their rookie pitcher Smith has been quite good. KC has been hitting better lately but they struggle at home).
(1) SEA -1.5, 2.34, $5-->11.70 (Great matchup for SEA's offense, which is much better on the road, much better vs righties, and they've been hitting well lately. Severino has been pretty good but he'll turn into a pumpkin eventually, and he has struggled against good offenses this year. I think SEA could beat up on OAK here).
(2) HOU ML, 1.96, $10.60-->20.79 (HOU started slowly like they do every year but they're hitting better lately, and they've always hit better on the road. MIL's offense is horrible at home and Blanco is a bit better than Myers).
(2) NYM ML, 1.98, $9.63-->19.07 (NYM hits better on the road and they've been very good lately, and ARI is going with a bullpen day. Canning has only allowed 2 ER in his last 16 IP over 3 starts).
(4) LAD -1.5, 1.77, $33-->58.38 (Complete mismatch with LAD's awesome offense against MIA's meh offense, and Alcantara has been awful. LAD beat him up badly in his last start too. LAD had an off day yesterday only scoring 3 off Elder and they don't have many off-days, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see LAD win 10-2 today).
Good luck!
Didn't love the lines yesterday and it showed in the results with another 3-4 day. However, we have one ladder moving on to step 5, one moving to step 3, and another moving to step 2.
I'm going to refocus on the highest conviction plays today and as a result I'm going to save the step 3 bet for tomorrow. Also, some of the lines I wasn't able to find on Fanduel so I had to use Draftkings.
Picks for Tuesday, May 6
(1) Wheeler gets the win, 2.20 (DK), $5-->10.50 (TB offense is not very good, especially lately, and other than a couple of rough starts in early April, Wheeler has been his consistent self. I didn't love the line on his outs recorded so I think this is a good price on him to pick up a win here.)
(1) CIN ML, 2.84, $5-->14.20 (They let me down yesterday but CIN is a feast or famine offense. This is actually a pretty good spot for an upset. ATL is not good vs lefties and not hitting well lately, and Sale has been very mediocre so far this season. Might as well take the price for a CIN upset.)
(2) Quantrill over 4.5 hits and o2.5 ER, 1.95 (DK), $11.30-->22.06 (Had to piece this one together to get a decent price on DK. LAD lost Teoscar to injury yesterday, who has been their most productive hitter, but the lineup is still good enough to score off the terrible Quantrill. He has gone over this combo in 6 of his 7 starts this season.)
(5) PIT/STL NRFI, 1.67, $50-->88.33 (This is the big one, the fifth step, and I scaled down the bet to pocket some profit. This is a great spot for a NRFI. PIT is a horrible offense and Liberatore has been very good. STL hits much better at home but they have to face Skenes. Both pitchers faced off early in the season and neither pitched well, but that was then. STL has also been one of the best NRFI teams so far this season. Skenes hasn't allowed an ER in the first inning yet, and Liberatore has only allowed 1 in 6 starts.)
Good luck.
Ladder complete for 16.6 units!
Almost hit the CIN ML but they blew a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the 9th. Got the Wheeler win to move to step 2 but the most unexpected result was crappy Quantrill shutting down the Dodgers. Time will tell, but it could be that the loss of Teoscar will actually have a big impact on that offense. Anyway, onwards. Lots of day baseball today so need to get these picks in early.
Picks for Wed, May 7
(1) MIN -1.5, 2.50 (DK), $5-->12.50 (MIN jumped all over Povich last night and they get to face Morton today, who should clearly retire. Simeon Woods-Richardson isn’t very good but BAL has been a very disappointing offense this season, and is one of the worst on the road. They lost 9-1 to MIN last night. The run line isn't typically a smart bet for the home team but I think they should take this one easily again.)
(1) NYM/ARI F5 u4.5, 2.05 (DK), $5-->10.25 (One of the best road offenses facing off against one of the best home offenses, but these teams have battled to totals of 9 and 6 through the first two games of the series, and only 3 runs were scored in the first five innings of each. And now we have two solid pitchers on the mound. Senga isn’t pitching deep but he’s been very good, and held ARI to 1 run in 4 IP in his last start. Kelly’s ERA is completely inflated by one awful start against NYY, but that was the only start where he’s allowed more than 2 runs (though he also isn’t pitching deep).
(1) DET ML & team total o5.5,, 1.98, $5-->9.90 (DET has quietly emerged as one of the better offenses in baseball, especially on the road, and actually have the best wOBA over the past 7 days. Now they get to play in Coors against Dollander, who is coming off a good start but has otherwise been knocked around. COL’s offense is horrible and is the worst in wOBA over the past 7 days, though they obviously hit better at home. Expecting DET to win easily so I combined these two bets for a better price.)
(2) CIN/ATL u8, 1.83, $10.50-->19.25 (ATL hits well at home and they’ve been hitting well lately, but Greene has been dominant this season and ATL has only scored 6 runs in the first two games of the series. The CIN offense has been much better on the road but they’ve struggled lately and have only managed 1 run in the first two games of the series. Holmes has been inconsistent but he’s coming off a strong start against powerhouse LAD. Expecting another low scoring game, and the line gives us the advantage of a push.)
(3) PIT/STL NRFI, 1.74, $19-->33.07 (PIT one of the worst offenses vs righties, on the road, and in the F5. Also hitting poorly lately. Outscored 8-4 in the first 2 games of the series. Gray has been meh but he held PIT to 1 run in 5 IP earlier in the season. He’s allowed 2 runs in the first inning in 7 starts. STL is actually one of the better home offenses and Keller is very meh, but he did shut them down over 7 IP earlier in the season. Keller has allowed 3 runs in the first inning in 7 starts but STL has been a very good NRFI team all season. Bullpens are a bit of a risk. This bet completed our ladder last night so let's run it back.)
Good luck.
Clean sweep baby! 5-0 yesterday so all 5 ladders move on.
Picks for Thurs, May 8
(2) CHW/KC F5 u4.5, 1.88, $12.50-->23.46 (These have been dead under teams all season due to their weak offenses. KC is actually hitting better lately but have still only managed 9 runs total through the first 3 games of the series. Bubic has been pretty solid and Martin has been okay. The price on the F5 under is a cent better so might as well take that to avoid bullpen issues.)
(2) DET ML and o5.5, 2.00 (DK), $10.25-->20.50 (Same analysis as yesterday, except Mize is better than Jobe. Might as well run it back.)
(2) PHI -1.5, 2.22, $9.90-->21.98 (PHI is hitting well and Pepiot isn’t dominant enough to shut them down. TB is one of the worst wOBA teams against lefties and worst in the league over the past 7 days, and Luzardo has been excellent so far. PHI has dominated the series 8-4 and 7-0. Kind of surprised to get such a good price on this bet.)
(4) MIN ML, 1.66, $32-->53.05 (BAL has a good wOBA vs righties but is one of the worst road wOBA teams in baseball. Ober has been very good since his brutal opening start. Kremer is coming off a dominant start against a weak KC, but has otherwise been pretty bad this season. MIN has dominated the first two games of the series 9-1 and 5-2. You can also get a really good price on DK for an Ober win, but I chose to use the ML for step 3 in case Ober leaves the game tied and MIN wins the game against BAL's weak bullpen.)
Given the small slate I'm going to save the remaining step 3 bet for tomorrow.
I'm killing it these days, might have to start one of those membership services 😉.
Just missed another clean sweep because PHI couldn't score one more run. But we now have three ladders on step 3 and another on step 5.
I don't love the value on many of the bets today so I'm saving a couple of the steps for tomorrow and starting some new ladders.
Picks for Friday, May 9
(1) Skubal gets the W, 1.86 (DK), $5-->9.34 (TEX offense has been very disappointing this season and they have to face Skubal, who has been lights out since his first two rough starts. He also dominates at home. DET’s offense has been surprisingly good so far – one of the best vs lefties, F5, and at home. Corbin has been good so far but he has a horrible track record and it’s only a matter of time before he turns back into a pumpkin. The Skubal W is the best value I could find for this game on DK.)
(1) CHC/NYM F5 o4.5, 2.08, $5-->10.40 (CHC is the best road wOBA team and the best F5 offense in baseball. Holmes has been pretty good so far, but he does struggle early with 8 of his 12 ER allowed coming in the first 3 innings. NYM have hit well lately but they’re better on the road, and Taillon has been solid over his last 3 starts (including tough matchups against ARI and PHI). However, he has also struggled early with 15 of his 17 ER allowed coming in innings 2 through 4.)
(3) MIL/TB NRFI, 2.05, $20-->41 (Not sure why the value is so good on this bet. MIL is a good NRFI team and has the worst wOBA in the MLB over the past 7 days. Littel isn’t dominant, but he’s been solid and has only allowed 2 runs in 7 first innings. TB’s offense has been pretty bad, especially against lefties and lately, and they’re also a good NRFI team. Quintana is coming off a bad start but that was against CHC, and he’s been solid otherwise. He’s only allowed 1 R in 5 first innings. Seems like a good spot to risk a third step on better than 2:1.)
(3) NYY team total o5.5, 1.80 (DK), $19.25-->34.65 (NYY is one of the best offenses in baseball and Bido has the potential to get knocked around. OAK his hitting well lately but they’re better on the road. Warren hasn’t been very good and he doesn’t pitch deep. Plus the weather is heating up in Sacramento and it’s been the second most offensive park this season. The game total is a ridiculous 11 so I don't like the value there. We'll go with NYY to score 6 runs tonight.)
Saving a step 3 and the step 5 for better lines tomorrow. Good luck!
The run continues, 3-1 yesterday. Lost the $20 step 3 bet but moved another one on to step 4.
Picks for Sat, May 10
(1) BOS/KC F5 u3.5, 1.93, $5-->9.63 (Crochet vs Ragans. BOS hits worse on the road and they aren’t hitting well lately. KC is hitting very well lately but they’re not good vs lefties or at home. Decent bullpens. KC won 2-1 yesterday.)
(1) SD/COL o11.5, 1.83, $7.50-->13.75 (Stayed away yesterday because SD’s offense can be so unpredictable, but they exploded for 13 runs. Now they’re facing Blalock, who hasn’t been good in his 2 starts. SD is throwing a 28 y/o career minor-leaguer who had a 5.21 ERA in 46 IP in his only MLB season last year. COL’s offense is horrible but they scored 9 yesterday. Let’s go with another slugfest for 1.5 units.)
(2) STL ML, 1.89, $9.34-->17.68 (STL hitting well lately, scored 10 vs WSH yesterday. Williams has been awful this season with opponents hitting over .300. Pallante hasn’t been very good either but WSH’s bullpen is horrible.)
(2) NYY -1.5, 1.96, $10.40-->20.40 (NYY is best in baseball vs lefties and while Sears has been very good this season, he’s also pitched against a lot of horrible offensive teams. OAK hits lefties pretty well but they’re better on the road and Rodon has been lights out over his past handful of starts. NYY dominated 10-2 yesterday. NYY also has a much better bullpen.)
(3) LAD/ARI F5 o4.5, 1.71, $22-->37.71 (Two of the best offenses in baseball, combined for 25 runs yesterday. May has struggled over his last 3 starts and has allowed 7 first inning runs. Burnes has been pretty good lately but his underlying metrics are awful and his K% is way down. He’s also struggled early with 10 of his 13 runs allowed coming in the first 3 innings.)
(5) TEX/DET u8, 1.66 (DK), $50-->83.33 (TEX is one of the worst offenses in baseball and Flaherty has been dominant at home this season. DET has been very good offensively, especially at home, but deGrom has been very good. He doesn’t pitch deep, however. Both teams have excellent bullpens. Flaherty has had issues in the second inning, allowing 5 ER. DET won 2-1 yesterday. Going with the line on DK so we have the push option for step 5.)
Saving the step (4) from yesterday for another day. Good luck.
So what you're saying is if you can hit 5 in a row you can make money? In other news, water is wet.
Back in action after a day off for Mother's Day yesterday.
The good run came to an end Saturday thanks to some totally unexpected pitching performances. Lost 4 of 6 bets, including the step 5, but we still have a step 4 held over from Friday to go along with a step 2 and 3.
Picks for Monday, May 12
(1) PIT/NYM F5 u3.5, 1.98, $5-->9.90 (PIT is one of the worst offenses in baseball, especially on the road, F5, and lately (worst wOBA in baseball over the past 7). Peterson isn’t dominant, but he’s consistent and certainly good enough to shut down PIT. NYM is one of the better offenses in baseball, especially lately, but they have to face Skenes.)
(1) Mahle u1.5 ER, 2.05 (DK), $5-->10.25 (COL is by far the worst road offense in baseball, and they’re coming off a homestand so they’ll have the Coors hangover. I don’t really believe in what Mahle is doing, but this isn’t the spot for him to regress.)
(1) NYY -1.5, 2.14, $5-->10.70 (I don’t know how they’ve done it with their lineup, but NYY sits at the top of so many offensive categories for wOBA: best vs righties and lefties, best F5, best away, and best over the last 7 days. Hancock is pretty bad and doesn’t strike anyone out. SEA’s offense is very good vs righties, but they’re much worse at home. They’re coming off a sweep at the hands of TOR, where they scored 7 runs over 3 games.)
(2) COL/TEX F4 u4.5, 1.98, $13.75-->27.23 (See Mahle analysis above. In addition, TEX is actually one of the worst home offenses in baseball, and they’re worse vs righties.)
(3) MIL/CLE NRFI, 1.83, $17-->31.17 (MIL is a good NRFI team and not hitting well lately. Lively is very meh but has shut down weaker offenses several times this season (though he only goes about 5 IP each start). He’s struggled in the third inning, allowing 8 of his 16 ER in that inning. CLE is a good NRFI team, one of the worst home offenses, and weak F5. Peralta has been very good so far.)
(4) MIL F5, 1.67, $32-->53.33 (See above. I was originally looking at the F5u, but with Lively's issues in the 3rd inning I'd rather avoid that and go for MIL to get an early lead.)
Good luck!
Back on track with a 5-1 day yesterday, but unfortunately the 1 loss was the step 4 bet thanks to MIL's offense not showing up.
Picks for Tuesday, May 13
(1) MIA ML, 3.15, $4-->12.60 (Bellozo is coming off 5.1 shutout IP against LAD and the CHC offense has slowed down of late. Brown hasn’t been very good this season, so it’s hard to resist an upset for the price.)
(2) MIL/CLE NRFI, 1.83, 10.25-->18.79 (Run it back. Two good NRFI teams. Priester is awful but he’s only allowed 1 first inning run, and same with Allen (and the 1 run was unearned).)
(2) CHW/CIN F5 u4.5, 2.12, 9.90-->20.99 (CHW has a terrible offense across the board, and the 2nd worst wOBA in baseball over the past 7 days. Abbott has been very good this season and hasn’t allowed a run in two May starts, though he doesn’t pitch deep. CIN has one of the worst home offenses in baseball and they’re not hitting well lately. Cannon is very meh but has only had one bad start all season. Want to avoid bullpen issues.)
(2) Fried gets the W, 2.35 (DK), 10.70-->25.14 (NYY started slow last night but did their thing and exploded for 6 runs in the 5th and won 11-5. This is an even more lopsided matchup, as NYY has Fried on the mound and the SEA offense is much worse vs lefties. Woo is much better than Hancock, however, and he’s been excellent at home, but he can get knocked around (coming off a rough start against OAK). Fried hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in a single start yet this season. Will happily take a Fried W for such a good price.)
(3) Fried o5.5 K's, 1.68, $27-->45.49 (See above. Fried has only gone over this line in 4 starts, but SEA strikes out a lot vs lefties.)
(4) STL/PHI F5 u4.5, 1.65, $30-->49.49 (STL doesn’t hit as well against lefties and on the road, and Luzardo has been solid all season. PHI is one of the best home offenses in baseball but they were held to 2 runs by STL last night, and Gray has been solid. Both teams have bullpen issues.)
Good luck.
