NFL Survivor Picks
For those that do not know, in a survivor pool you pick a team who is going to win that week. If your team wins, you stay alive. You continue to pick teams for the ensuing weeks, and keep picking until your team loses. The catch is that you cannot pick a team more than once.
I'm a square and don't know much about the NFL.
I was thinking of taking the Saints in week 1. They are 13 point favorites over the Lions. The other 13 point spread differential is the Ravens over the Chiefs. I figure the Ravens are probably a better overall team and more worthy of saving for later weeks.
Is this fine for week 1?
Thanks for any help you can offer.
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Clowns. They booted me anyways so screw them.
$15M Guarantee for Circa Survivor this year (1k entry)
They also made a new contest, Circa Grandisimo - $100,000 entry. $1.5M Guarantee
10 part doc if you want to get hyped for this season
guess all the pools are on splash now....and circa of course
Got through Circa with Arizona today. Strongly considering going contrarian in week 2 and taking Dallas at home vs NYG. Thought Dal looked pretty good against Phi even though they lost and NY offense was absolutely anemic today. Would prefer to save Bal, Buf, and SF for later. SF valuable for week 17B along with Cin as a backup.
Thoughts?
Got through Circa with Arizona today. Strongly considering going contrarian in week 2 and taking Dallas at home vs NYG. Thought Dal looked pretty good against Phi even though they lost and NY offense was absolutely anemic today. Would prefer to save Bal, Buf, and SF for later. SF valuable for week 17B along with Cin as a backup.
Thoughts?
I don't think DAL is contrarian, they have the 5th highest win odds. They might be pretty chalky but have very little future value. Worth considering for sure
Well that Dallas game was a hell of a zinger in the 2nd half.. I think I aged about 7 years. Had my 1 and only entry on them
Aubrey draining that 64 yarder though.. and those multiple bombs by Wilson jesus h christmas
Well that Dallas game was a hell of a zinger in the 2nd half.. I think I aged about 7 years. Had my 1 and only entry on them
Aubrey draining that 64 yarder though.. and those multiple bombs by Wilson jesus h christmas
yup ridiculous game. i had lots of entries on dallas. was at a kids bday party during the game so wasn't watching, but lots of ups and downs during score refreshes on phone.
thought dallas had it locked up near end of 4th. of course they let russell throw a td. i actually wasn't too concerned about dallas potential to tie it up with aubrey leg.
then in OT after their 2nd failed drive, it was well there's a tie at best, aka survivor loss.
magical
Thoughts on using Colts at home vs Ten in week 8? I think it's a must if you want to use Ind at some point this season. Cin, Hou, and Atl are no longer viable options in my opinion.
Due to both teams’ abilities to take maps and the potential for momentum swings, the series is likely to exceed 3.5 maps with multiple map wins for JD Gaming.
2nd chance survivor…
Chiefs over raiders? I think I have to save chiefs for thanksgiving as that’s a separate week
Patriots over titans? Friend says better spots to use pats
Bears over saints ? Friend is literally claiming this is the pick for long term.
Teams used:
Lions, Steelers
Who we like ???
I got Pats -6.5 (71%) against Jets week 11. That is the closest they get to this week (-7, 74%).
Big hill to climb with the Bears this week, but it opens up remainder of season if they can win over Saints.
Remember PIT lost Thursday, so that should favor picking KC this week. Eagles will be around -7 against Bears on thanksgiving, and Ravens may be much better then (although CIN is improving as well). I don't like relying on KC -4 against DEN (62%) when there are alternatives.
ETA: I just saw Pats -7 early line against Browns next week, which is about same win chance as this week. But Colts are -12 vs. Titans so they seem to be the clear pick next week. Pats have MIA at home final week, but a lot can change between now and then.
And I meant DAL vs KC, not DEN.
Got through with Cleveland yesterday.
Have yet to use: KC, Buffalo, Detroit, Philly, Baltimore
This seems like a year with a lot of bad teams, and there is going to be a 50 way chop at the end.
Here's to some huge upsets in the next coming weeks, hopefully we are on the other side of them.
Got through with Cleveland yesterday.
Have yet to use: KC, Buffalo, Detroit, Philly, Baltimore
This seems like a year with a lot of bad teams, and there is going to be a 50 way chop at the end.
Here's to some huge upsets in the next coming weeks, hopefully we are on the other side of them.
I was thinking about inevitability of a chop after the broncos didn’t burn 15% of my field yesterday.
ETA: I just saw Pats -7 early line against Browns next week, which is about same win chance as this week. But Colts are -12 vs. Titans so they seem to be the clear pick next week. Pats have MIA at home final week, but a lot can change between now and then.
And I meant DAL vs KC, not DEN.
I guess colts is the pick this week.
Used:
Lions, Steelers, Bears
My league has a wrinkle where thanksgiving and Black Friday games are a separate week.
This could be the pivotal day. If I even make it to then. But ya I have to save the ravens or chiefs for thanksgiving as I have used the lions.
Survivor is definitely the best bang for your buck.
Bengals this week. Everybody will be on Falcons and Colts, has to be an upset one of these weeks right?
Colts were only picked 34%, Falcons 33%.
What was supposed to be an easy week turned out to be a 50% haircut.
And Colts really don't have a lot of value going forward. I guess Texans at home on Thx weekend, but Chargers host the Raiders that week.
Rams look like pick this week 9
I was scanning the Circa Survivor entries looking for the best future value going forward.
This was the best entry I found: RPB4FUN (entry #2)
He already played Cardinals, Ravens, Bills, Dolphins, Vikings, Steelers, Bears, and Colts.
I got his chance of winning out at 1 in 27.
His other ticket is almost as good, the only difference is he picked Rams instead of Dolphins wk 4. Winning out on that ticket I have 1 in 33.
FREEDOM_ROCKETS has 9 live entries, with the best entry 1 in 31 win out chance. His worst entry has win out chance 1 in 41.
