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Threads with recently added new postsCoinpoker consistently has 2 or 3 tables at 25/50 50/1 during Aus times, action increases during EU peak times.
The variance in tournaments is murderous. The way to overcome it is volume. If you have a good ROI in the local tournaments, play them as often as you can, and print.
The big score of the occasional big-guarantee event can be tempting, but not only are the fields tougher, dropping ROI, but they are larger as well, sending variance through the roof.
hey guys! im playing nl 25 now, i got jackpot in nl10 2 days ago, for now i played 10k hands, i made tons of mistakes. i was keeping on tilt and i cant help it.
Unguarded has reported a post.
Reason: Troll account made solely to harass DooDooPoker as evidenced by his posts
Post: The DooDooPoker Experience
Forum: Poker Blogs and Goals
Posted by: InfiniteLand23456
Original Content:
So just to confirm. A guy, who as recent as Aug 2022, was staked for 100nl, clearly a loser, stole 2k from his backer chasing losses sports betting is now coaching for $100/hr based on nothing but a 50k hand sample graph?
Nothing wrong with any of that.....
And no. Not a BS fan at all. **** that fat racist piece of human garbage.
Assigned Moderators: Alobar, marknfw
Hi, I play NL25 regular tables at Bodog. The tables are very soft because There are many recs. The only con is the 4 tables cap and the "slow speed" of the software so I play a low hands/hour. I am a little paranoid of the RNG and the "variance" of the site ( 1 River outers, the recs hitting all at turn/River but obvious is only my idea).
Is a good idea to move to acr or ipoker for example or the field is harder or not too many recs in the tables? The Only pro I see is more rakeback and more han
Hi!
Nl25 bodog easy money —-> lot of idiot rec, you could printing money easily.
Acr full of nits and good players the pool is tricky not easy, for multitabling with RB 27% + beast not bad.
Ipoker nl20€ lower rake than ACR (check it please with rake comparism site). With good rb 45% and multitabling (table limit 16) you can make really good profit.
Its only my observation. For me ACR and Ipoker harder, but with high skill all of them beatable.
Test ACR&Ipoker and stick with what u like, dont listen to other people.
In the appendix of Strategies to Beat Small Stakes Plo from Matthias Plum he provides a table of common hand vs hand scenarios. Vs. a straight he lists 2pair with having 24%. Vs. a flush, however, with only 19% (with 2 cards to come in both cases).
So I put it into Omaha Equilab as follows:
The first results are still a bit surprising though, as you'd imagine that a straight comes, on average, more often with cards that block a 2pairs outs to improve and would therefore perform better vs. a 2pai
The big thing in the example I kept is that you didn't include suits and a flush beats a straight, and a backdoor flush is usually estimated at roughly 5%. Eg.
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 P...
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - Tc8s7d
PLAYER_1 Td7s2d2c
PLAYER_2 Jd9d2h2s
820 trials (exhaustive)
All-in Equity
[table=head]|Equity %|Wins Hi %|Ties Hi %|Wins Hi Count|Ties Hi Count|
Td7s2d2c|19.5122%|18.7805%|1.4634%|154|12|
Jd9d2h2s|80.4878%|79.7561%|1.4634%|654|12|
[/table]
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 P...
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - Tc8s7d
PLAYER_1 Td7s2d2c
PLAYER_2 Jc9d2h2s
820 trials (exhaustive)
All-in Equity
[table=head]|Equity %|Wins Hi %|Ties Hi %|Wins Hi Count|Ties Hi Count|
Td7s2d2c|23.9024%|23.1707%|1.4634%|190|12|
Jc9d2h2s|76.0976%|75.3659%|1.4634%|618|12|
[/table]
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 P...
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - Tc8s7d
PLAYER_1 Td7s2d2c
PLAYER_2 Jc9c2h2s
820 trials (exhaustive)
All-in Equity
[table=head]|Equity %|Wins Hi %|Ties Hi %|Wins Hi Count|Ties Hi Count|
Td7s2d2c|24.8171%|24.1463%|1.3415%|198|11|
Jc9c2h2s|75.1829%|74.5122%|1.3415%|611|11|
[/table]
Fold, fold, fold the straight
Merrily merrily merrily merrily
Equity's a dream
Well said @docvail. I think you're absolutely right on the survival instinct and in the case of the first hand I turned away from my gut feeling (which might actually have made more sense, especially after seeing the red aces) simply because math was close and I had a re-buy available. (I ended up 3 of 17 in this tourney after the re-buy, so it paid off). In the second example, I feel it was more bravado that helped sway my decision. My gut said I was behind but also this would be a sick call if I wasn't.
In both examples the analysis afterward of the hands, understanding that mathematically it was either close or a slam dunk, really helped ease my concerns. I think after the first few hundred thousand hands I played in my mid-twenties during the 03-11 boom, nothing really phased me. With the theoretical side of the game, it makes it even easier to justify stuff. However, like @snowman said, sometimes we can take it too far and justify an action if we stretch that theoretical range too far in our favor.
I'd assume the former as in a bounty tournament you need to be willing to gamble more to try to win bounties.
Hi Everyone:
A friend of mine will be doing a free kindle give-a-way for his book Success Beyond Expectations: Dreams Without Action, Hard Work, and Dedication become Pipe Dreams by Richman Mahlangu. The give-a-way will start March 18 and run for three days and the Amazon kindle page is here:
https://www.amazon.com/Success-Beyond-Ex...
and on those days the price of the kindle will be $0.00.
Mason
I don't hate just raising small turn bet, it really looks like Kx or some draw looking for cheap river card. AP- I would fold river vs pot size bet.
He is playing very honestly, so note that.
For what it’s worth I actually thought I had a pretty good Bluff catcher as it Blocks AK and AQ and unblocks back door heart draws.
I agree your hand is a good bluff catcher, and villain can even value-bet worse hands.
I'm not sure I would expect most villains to take this sizing with a bluff, but it would not be that surprising to see some villains take this line with kq or kk.
And good post illiterat, tx for sharing.
Ahhhhh. That makes sense to me now. I'd always assumed XG would "pick" its move again once the rollout finished.
Thanks very much for your answer.
Brian James has reported a post.
Reason: personal attack
Post: Capitol attack and 6th of January hearin...
Forum: Politics and Society
Posted by: d2_e4
Original Content:
Btw, I think there is a good chance that BJ used to post here as joe6pack and get relentlessly trolled for being a lying moron. If that wasn't him, I'd be very surprised, given the posting styles and general propensity to lie and to moron.
Assigned Moderators: Rococo, King Spew, R*R, ganstaman, browser2920
When we say an event has a probability of 74%, that IS variance. Suppose if the event occurs, you win $1, and nothing happens if it does not occur. Your expected value is $0.74. Variance is just a number, one that can be fairly easily calculated once we know the possible outcomes and their probabilities.
In this case there are two outcomes - you win $1 with probability 0.74 or you win nothing with probability 0.26. In general, to calculate variance, for each possible outcome we take the value of that outcome, subtract the expected value and square the result. The variance is then just the sum of all of these numbers. In this case we get
0.74 x (1-0.74)^2 + 0.26 x (0 - 0.74)^2 = 0.2099.
This number, while mathematically valid, really means little. Technically, the reason is that the units of this number are dollars squared, a unit that really means nothing to us. To make better use of this measure of spread, it makes more sense to use the standard deviation, which is simply the square root of the variance (hence in this case it would have sensible units - dollars). Here the SD would be $0.458. So how do we make sense of this? Well in this case we really canÂ’t, but if we modify a bit we can. Suppose we perform our experiment a large number of times. I wonÂ’t go into detail, but if we take the average value of the outcome of this latrge number of trials, it will get close to 0.74. However it is very likely NOT to hit 0.74 exactly. How likely is any particular outcome to occur? We can use the SD to figure that out, remembering one key fact - the standard deviation of the average of N trials is equal to the standard deviation of one trial divided by the square root of N.
This is more clear in a specific example. Suppose we run 10000 trials. Our average should get very close to 0.74; the SD tells us how close. The SD of this average is 0.458/100 or 0.0046. As a general rule, about 2/3 of the time we will get an average that is within 1 SD of the expected value - in this case between 0.7354 and 0.7446. We will be within 2 SD 95% of the time (between 0.7308 and 0.7492). We will be within 3 SDs 99% of the time (0.7262 to 0.7538).
Thanks for bump. Wanted to bring this thread back in case things happen this year.
Hold a decent position in TILRAY (LOL) so will report back if things move later this year..
jjjou812 has reported a post.
Reason: Wtf and out of context
Post: The costs of trans visibility
Forum: Politics and Society
Posted by: Luciom
Original Content:
And btw blacks aren't targeted more by the police than they should at all, they simply commit way more crimes than other ethnic groups (for whatever reason) so ofc they interact disproportionally with the police.
So the whole idea is based on a fundamental lie to stir racial hatred.
Which is what Marxism is all about, lie incessantly, telling people their bad conditions are never their own fault rather they are victims of oppression, to motivate people to riot and try to bring down the system
Assigned Moderators: Rococo, King Spew, R*R, ganstaman, browser2920
With that speech this is a fold for sure.
It's equivalent to when you try and guess their hand and they smile and say something like, "I don't have a 6. Sorry that's all I can say."
Any sort of speech is generally a sign of strength. Good pick up. I wouldn't necessarily have thought much about it, when all he said was that the hand played out weirdly.
Sent from my SM-G781U using Tapatalk
We did indeed, I cant remember your steam handle?
I dont play much cs anymore, but it happens sometimes.
I'm not sure 100% probably the same as my name on here. I do remember getting community banned on steam last year for trading CS skins though. So that account is pretty much dead. I don't play much anymore either just really don't have the time nore the motivation to play the new game now.
How soft are the 2/5 tables? I usually play 1/3 but thinking of shot taking on weekends. Are there any really good regs that you are scared of? What would be a good winrate there? How often do you get the clueless newbie that pops up in the 1/2 once a while who doesn’t know how to play at all?
Wrong place to post. Try this forum.
sixfour has reported a post.
Reason: This isn't the marketplace
Post: Selling WPT cruise tickets for March 31-...
Forum: About the Forums
Posted by: Pektara
Original Content:
I am selling two sea terrace central cabins worth for a total of $8700 for $7000 …
Two cabins -4 adults- 2 of the tickets come with bar tabs.
Cabins can be sold separately $3700 with bar tab and $3300 without bar tab .
Thank you!
Assigned Moderators: Mike Haven, R*R, Bluegrassplayer
Well what is the correct way to calculate it assuming you know how many bounties are left for each vs not knowing?
My casino charges higher rake for bomb pots. Makes sense since they take longer.
Hope nobody minds my re-opening an old thread. In as few words as possible, the poker part of the vacation to Vegas that I took in July 2019 went so badly that by the end of the week I ended up changing hobbies. I was a magician for 4 years (not joking, look up TheMetalMagician on YouTube - that's me!). A few months ago my magic hobby fizzled and I started getting back into poker. I dusted off my old copy of Malmuth/Miller/Sklansky's SSHE bible and read it from cover to cover about 5 times. The casino near me runs $4/$8LHE fairly reliably on Saturdays so I get out there when I can. The LHE tables there are usually full of very nice people - when there's a jerk at any of those tables it's so rare it's a surprise. Very enjoyable games.
I plan to continue going to the LHE games on Saturdays as often as possible. As to whether or not I'll ever get back into playing online (i.e. GlobalPoker), or getting back into PLO, FLO8 or NLHE (shortstacking for sure), I strongly doubt it. LHE is my "jam". But you never know what the future holds.
