$210 Mystery tournament, early TPGK River, Is this a bet? What betsize are we going for?
Wasn't sure about this river spot and thought it might be too thin to bet.
We are 6 handed, this is a feeder tournament. You can play multiple day 1s and all stacks that you get through day 1 combine and go to day 2. On Day 2, Mystery Bounties start.
Hero has ~70BB UTG (we are the big stack)
Villain in BB has ~53BB
UTG1 22BB
SB has 14BB
Preflop: Hero has Kh Ts UTG (6 handed)
We raise to 2.2BB, UTG1 calls, Sb calls, BB calls
Flop: Tc 9h 3d (pot 9.6BB)
x, x, Hero bets 3.2BB, UTG1 folds, SB calls, Villain BB calls
Turn: 2d (19BB)
x, x, Hero bets 9.5BB, Sb folds, Villain (BB), calls
River: 8h (38BB)
Villain checks, Hero? Villain has 30BB left
I am not sure if this is a bet and fold to a shove, a clear check, or bet/decide or just a shove.
What are you doing on this river and if you bet, what bet sizing are you going for? are you betting AT on the river always? I kept thinking, T8, T9 diamonds or even without is very possible. But so is QT/JT and even AT.
We don't have a clear read on villain, but I have no notes on them or label (I have now labelled A LOT of players). They are most likely a casual/rec player.
8 Replies
KTo is a little loose out of the gun... depends on how tight your table is ... which by this action seems a little loose.
Ask yourself this: ... what better is folding? what worse is calling? And if so what percentage of the time? This will determine your bet size. Answer these and we will go from there.
check and if youre ahead youre happy
a worse hand may never call you after that action [on top of being multiway] on that board
If I had a read on opponent being bad in means of a calling station, I'd consider betfolding b30%
@simon he's 6handed in a mystery bounty
Right... so not itm with a shove stack in the sb... this probably my open range
That seems a little tight for UTG/6 - I'd always be opening KJo and ATo, and sometimes QJo and KTo, and a little bit of A9o if I thought the table was unlikely to play back or played bad aces to a raise.
The solvers like opening K7s, K6s, Q8s, J8s too, and at this depth even K5s can open sometimes.
I mean, maybe this is one pip too loose preflop, but I think in these tournaments it's good to be wider in some spots to build a stack.
The result is that I checked back and villain had A9o. So I think maybe I should bet smallish on the river. 6 - 12BB (still other tens that I can get called with). I think live, I am less worried about players checkraising as a bluff and would be more confident in bet/folding the river.
Any hand that you want to be called by on the river that is worse than yours will have to put you on a bluff, because they will only beat bluffs with stuff like JT or A9.
But what bluffs do you keep barelling into two players on the turn when you may not get many folds / may fail to realize your equity IP if someone raises? If it was QJ, with the 8 on the river QJ got there too.
So I believe that on average you'll have a hard time being called by worse if you don't have a concrete read on opponent (for example not being able to reason in above way and just calling off with any top pair since it's top pair).
And then the river bet can easily become a gift to your opponent any time he has QJ, T8, AT or any other hand that beats you that aren't few of
I likely check back here because of the turn bet sizing and because QJ got there.
If we bet like on the turn it would be about 20 bb's and we would have to call a jam for 10bb more.
In normal tournaments my temptation would be to bet 9.5 bb's again on the river but that would invite a jam and I would fold because it would rarely be a c/r bluff.
However I would be very tempted to bet in this tournament because we want to go into Day 2 with a big stack so we can win some mystery bounties. Our perfect sizing in this tournament would be a jam so that we make it look like AK/AQ/AJ/KQ is possible as well as JJ+/AT/QJs. That means that our potential bluff range would make it worth it to call and double up with hands that we beat. I also like it in this tournament because its early as you mentioned and they can buy back in.
I rule out T9/33/22 hands for Villain because they would likely raise with those hands on the flop or turn. The hands that beat us are basically QJ/T8/98 (though they probably fold some 98 on the turn). I think 88 folds to the turn bet.
Villain's BB range can be somewhat wide with TXs hands and QT/JT and while I would probably fold hands like A9 on the turn, it turns out that Villain could have a bunch of 9Xs hands as well as A9 especially because of your read of the players being rec players (though you didn't know this at the time)
@rick
A jam would look so stroong to a recfish
He called A9 on the turn, doubt he'll get into the sizing on river and put us on bluff if we bet more (rather the other way around, more inclined to call a smallish bet)
AT he also has. TX with weak kickers will rather be fewer suited combos.
Would you keep barelling the bluffy hands you listed into two players, SB and BB, on the turn after also seeing the flop 4way? How much you expect it to achieve?
I would continue on the turn if I had a flush draw. But the thing is against 3 players I wouldn't cbet unless I hit the flop or had a PP. So considering that and the size of the bet on the turn which says "Value bet", its a way underbluff situation. So your point is well taken zz
However, PhatPots is wild. He might be bluffing on the turn. And if I was at the table playing against him I would also have called the turn with A9. And if he jammed on the river I would tank and consider AK/AQ/AJ/KQ all in his range.
I check back river. Another factor that hasn't been mentioned is that villain over called on the flop, after you bet and SB called. That immediately makes his range much stronger than if the hand had been heads up. Your range is also stronger due to the hand being multi way. By the time you get to the river, straights got there, some hands you were ahead of potentially made two pair, etc.
I'm thinking the worst hand I value bet on the river would be JJ.
