From both players perspective.
The TAG button opens and the TAG SB 3 bets with the BB folding and the button calling.
The button has AhTs
The SB has Ac9c.
KcKs3c...The SB bets and the button calls.
KcKs3c4h...The SB checks, The button checks.
KcKs3c4h7d...The river goes check check.
Did the SB misplay his hand by checking the turn? If the SB did bet should the Button call again? Should the button call a blank river if the SB did bet the turn and now bets the river?
The TAG button opens and the TAG SB 3 bets with the BB folding and the button calling.
The button has AhTs
The SB has Ac9c.
KcKs3c...The SB bets and the button calls.
KcKs3c4h...The SB checks, The button checks.
KcKs3c4h7d...The river goes check check.
Did the SB misplay his hand by checking the turn? If the SB did bet should the Button call again? Should the button call a blank river if the SB did bet the turn and now bets the river?
Just see what the solver does bro.
I think I like the turn check by the SB. The button has a bunch of K's in his range and it would suck to get raised. The SB blocks a lot of the club draws the button could have that it could get value from if he bet. The SB doesn't have a big enough Ace to want to try to get three streets of value. I don't think either of these players should be getting away from their hands if more action is put in from the turn onward. The button could find a fold if the river is a Jack or A Queen. I'm thinking the button should bet the turn if he had AQ or AJ. It's probably a reasonable check back with AT by the button on the turn.
I'm inclined to bet. I see little about this board to threaten ace-nine which you deemed good enough to 3! preflop. In this situation, the high card value of the hand alone is enough to bet, the fd just gives it more juice.
And yes, button should call again because he's chosen to underrep his hand strength preflop and this board is not particularly scary for him either.
Should the button be delaying on this board to the turn?
Should the button be raising flush draws like 7c8c? Maybe call A high and Q high flush draws.
Should the button be calling the turn with his weaker non wheel draw Aces like A7?
Should the SB still bet Ac6c on the turn if he had it.
Unhinged
Delaying eh?
No, but button should be turn for value and all hands that best him are likely betting.
You got me
Did the SB misplay his hand by checking the turn? If the SB did bet should the Button call again? Should the button call a blank river if the SB did bet the turn and now bets the river?
Yes, the SB should bet this turn. Yes, the Button should call the SB's turn bet (folding is a big mistake). The button should have bet the turn after the SB checked. The button should call down if the SB bet all streets.
If the button is calling AT why would the sb bet A9? For value? Referring to a river triple barrel
Yes that was my question. From what I’ve seen this doesn’t really happen. But maybe if you are betting wide enough and look like a maniac it will. “Much worse” than A9 is Q/J high on this board.
Just wasn't sure if you meant in general or what. I would think if someone didn't bet this hand on this turn he wouldn't be betting much else either. You think he would be more likely to be betting his complete misses?
The Chillest... Fair point. Let's get to work on trying to answer it. I've run a normal GTO sim and then adjusted it for an opponent who doesn't bet the turn enough. I assumed the opponent only bets pairs and trips here, for the sake of argument. We'll call it the SUPER DUST MODE.
Normally the SB should have an EV of $102 (20/40) on this turn if he's playing perfectly balanced poker. Surprisingly, an opponent who only bets at least a pair here still has an EV of $95. That's only a $7 SUPER DUST MODE premium, which is less than I thought it would be. Indeed, ATo is now a -($17) EV call on the turn. Take THAT GTO! Of course, the challenge is that we don't have exact reads on our opponents, but it's interesting to me that the post flop NITS are only giving up $7 here. I guess 7% in poker is a lot though.
What do you all think?
J Lot
Super cool. Is it because our range is just so much stronger than IP player?
I suspect it's because most of our EV almost always comes from our strongest hands, especially against a perfect opponent. The overall strength of our relative range is why it's still a +ev spot.
Are these more like Vegas TAGs or LA TAGs? It's a meaningful difference because LA TAGs get the turn with a much higher percent of their opening ranges (which are wider in LA to begin with) then Vegas TAGs. This marks a pretty significant difference imo.
