Top Pair + Flush Draw
1/2 game. Very limpy game except V who PFR about 40% to a large sizing.
The hand: Hero is effective stack at about $275 with main V.
3 or 4 limps, V over limps on button. Hero BB with Q8cc checks. I thought about squeezing here but the limping crew can be very sticky and have a wide range oop in a bloated pot with a mediocre hand is not appealing.
Flop $12: QhTc5c. Hero leads for $10. 2 limpers call. V calls.
Turn $50ish: QhTc5c 6d. I feel if I were ahead I'm still ahead. Hero $40. All folds to V who makes it $140.
My take on V's range. QQ/TT are straight out. He's raising these preflop. QT I think he's raising pre and certainly flop.
So his value range is 66,Q6/T6. His bluffing range is possibly 78cc or 6cxc.
We have about $220 remaining with $100 to call. Can we find a fold here? Calling is terrible, right? Fold or jam?
One other consideration, hero just bluffed and showed V out of a mid sized (90bb) pot less than an orbit ago.
2 Replies
Can we give V all 65 combos as well for value?
Us against 66, 65, 8c7c means we're 31%. It's your V, if you think they're also limping Q6, Q5, T6, etc...obv we're not doing that well.
Shoving, I think we need 32.8%. (220 to 230 + 220) Probably shoving here, though it does fold out all V's trash, but we'll need some spaz in V's range to make it +EV.
Not sure I donk out near pot on this flop, either. We're doing it for value, right, and to build a pot should we flush? Would c-r be way over-valuing our hand?
I think I check/call the turn for this very reason -- I don't want to get raised off of my hand and I want to see a river as cheap as possible.
If you think you are still ahead and that's why you bet, there's probably nothing wrong w/ gii now if you can rebuy and it won't tilt you. Otherwise, just sigh-fold.
