greediocity killed the cat

Don't raise this board this deep with BTN.

After the raise don't show your hand with 150 behind.
Then probably fold, 76s/QJs are already winning ... which also means that a bunch of the hands that are in front will also block your outs. Eg. Jd2d removes two of your outs, so 7 outs is now 5. You really need V to have KxJd/KdJx and go for it.

ty ty

if button wasn't in the hand do you think the raise is OK? is not-raising just for protecting my stack or are there additional value reasons in case the flush comes? (or am i still scared of straight flushes at that point)

ty, felt like an all in decision in the moment but if i hit turn and he folds i feel real dumb, I think showing him ultimately led to me learning he had a flush but thats probably not worth $150 (and if its still a fold vs not-a-flush then irrelevant)

I think I accounted for the -2 (as 13 diamonds, -3 on board, -2 in Button hand, -1 in my hand = 7) unless I've math'd wrong.

Ty for the input, the "probably" in front of fold saving me a little embarrassment, felt like a close spot where the pot size talked me into a suboptimal call, which feels better then pure blunder, but maybe theyre the same

Welcome to the forum. Next time, please don't post results, even in a spoiler. Most people can't resist reading it, and it then biases their responses.

Raise OTF is really optimistic on a connected suited flop, especially making it an overbet. Just call the $20.

AP, V is repping sets, straights, JdTx for pair +draw, and flopped flushes. Since V is a dealer, he may be a bit loose, but likely doesn't have any cheese like Jd2d in a raised pot. Let's call his range JJ-88,KdXd,76s,JdTx,JdKx. Against that range, you have 36.2% equity. This makes sense as you theoretically have 9 outs to a flush, but many of your V's hands have at least one diamond in them. On the other hand, occasionally an ace or queen is actually a clean out, making up for your missing outs in this wide range. If we take out those JdKx combos, you could be looking as low as 33.4% equity.

If you call flop, you are obv going to GII, so I'm just going to do the math as if BTN had shoved. Total pot is going to be $1165 and you're being asked to put in $450 of that, or 38.6% of that. You'd need 10 outs for that to be a call, and that's a tough ask on this board. It's a fold, though it's close if his range includes some cheese.

Unless the standard open in this game is much smaller than $15, I'd raise more pre, when there are already two limpers in the pot. At least $20, if not $25.

Flop, just flat call the donk lead from SB. No need to blast off multi-way when we're just on a draw. If we want to raise, just to rep strength and deny some equity, we can raise small, like just 3x, rather than 5x.

AP, once BTN max 3B's with next to nothing behind, there's no calling. On paper it may look like we have 12 outs, but BTN and SB are almost certainly holding 2 or 3 of them, and BTN will 100% be jamming any turn card that isn't a diamond. So it's just a fold.

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I'd go 20 preflop but no big deal.

Just call flop. You're the preflop aggressor, so it's unlikely that anyone has an overpair which would be the main holding you target with your raise. Nobody is folding two pair or pair-plus-draw. If anyone has a flush draw you dominate them anyhow. And on this board - probably the nut worst board for the preflop aggressor - there's every chance someone has smashed a massive hand.

As played, yeah don't show when there's money on the table because if you hit on the turn he can snap fold his King high flush which would (a) make you feel extremely foolish and (b) massively impacts the odds calculation you need to make, as you'll have no implied odds; and (c) could even allow him to pull off a ridiculous bluff if he so wanted (!)

Assuming (1) you hadn't shown and (2) is goes all in on the turn regardless and if you call now you call turn, the pot is 720, 450 to call so you're getting about 1.5/1 so you need about 40% equity (if I'm getting this right, which I'm probably not). You don't have that against a made flush. Introduce a few sets (unlikely), straights (much more likely) and King-high flush draws (optimistic) and you have it comfortably, but that's offset by the blunder of showing your hand.

Notice that two of the flushes are straight flushes which also squeezes your odds.

Without having shown your hand it's pretty close but having shown you've changed the implied odds too much and you should fold.

ty for response

word, I think Button just vanished in my mind (oopsie) and I felt like against anything but flopped flush I had enough equity to try to make SB fold or play for stacks (mb winners tilt because I was up/deep)

I think in this room at 1/3 $15 is _almost_ ATC, his flush ended up being like 5d Xd I think, shoulda payed more attention. If V has _all_ combos of 2 diamonds in his range I assume that pushes us more towards fold? If he's on either end of the board with a diamond I suppose I lose 2 outs to the straight flush (maybe thats what other poster meant by -2 outs) so im down to 5 diamonds instead of 7. (I think he had 5d, cant remember the other diamond.)

makes sense, ty for math help, I think my intuition was correct but my eyes went a little wide, into the muck next time

ty for reply, agree in hindsight

much appreciated, couple lessons for me re:

- be more conscious of stack sizes
- be more considerate of the my outs that arn't really outs (eg staight-flush draws)
- dont show my cards to opp

Yes, you have AdQs on:

8d 9d 10d

...so you have to seriously think about 6d, 7d, Jd and Qd ... there's a good chance one of those is dead, and very possible for two of them to be dead.

Yes, but let's assume villain has KdQd or QdJx ... now the Jd is dead to you. If he has like JdTx then 7d and Qd are both dead to you, although you pick up non-pure A pair outs.

the math/odds part definitely a weakness of mine, I think on flop the pot is ~570 (~50 pre + 20 SB + 100 H + 400 V = ~570)

and I have to put in 300 to have a shot at it, so 570/300 = 1.9:1 pot odds

which means I need to be winning > 34% (300/870 = .34)

if I assume flopped flush, which I think after talking with Button is safe assumption, then I've 5 - 7 outs, so 20% - 28%

and if I assume any diamond plus J outs are live (vs non-diamond-having flopped straights), then I've 11 outs, so 44%

and a few hands in the middle where non-board-pairing diamonds are my only outs maybe, so V range means I need 20 - 44% to make the call, and if I'm honest with myself hes probably on the upper end of range way more often than not, especially after table talk

word I hadn't considered my outs being dead to his straight flush but thats a very good point, thank you again

You have to figure that last $150 as going in here if you want to see two cards, which is why I just did the math as though he had shoved. Only way it is ever not going in is if he folds when you hit the flush OTT, which is only possible since you showed your hand.

so I reckon I add what he has behind to the "pot", and the same amount to the "bet" (that id have to call), which leads me to ~1150 pot, and 450 to call, so ~2.5:1, needing 38% or better to call (like you said), ty again for the response, yall should put some "buy me a coffee" links in sigs or something ♥

What's your objective in betting so strongly pre-flop? This is the wettest of wet boards. When you're playing and making a $100 bet, you should be thinking well if I bet $100 and he calls, I'll do this if this comes on the turn or if he raises I'll do this. It seems like you're chucking out $100 for no good reason. There's plenty of MADE hands there who are probably betting to give you negative pot odds to call with Ad.

You're almost certainly behind here. I'd not count either an ace or queen as an out. Your outs are clean at least, but there's not that many of them and they've raised large. . It's a fold.

at the time (on flop) my thought was "the SB donk bet 10% of his stack, and only has 200 behind, and generally 1/3 live will overfold to pressure without nuts, so im gonna put him to the test here and worst case i have to call 100 more to win 350" with my outs vs full range of $20 donk bet it seemed reasonable

then the button reminded me he was still in the hand by max-betting admittedly the lapse in consciousness of Button's existence was a big mistake, but without Button in the hand I still don't hate the raise against the SB (unless you guys tell me I should maybe), but with Button in hand I agree with you (and the others) that a call is much better

agree in hindsight, I overestimated my outs by a couple cards I think and let the pot size sway my decision a bit

appreciate the response, ty

lol @ showing hand faceup mid-hand when there's more betting rounds left

If you show your hand with 150 back you should never call. I would just fold and not raise the first time, but if youÂ’re going to continue you need to put the extra 150 in before heÂ’s drawing dead and knows it