Married to AA

Jam now.

I prefer a check OTF most of the time here. As played, I think we're calling the flop raise.

Why are you checking the flop? The standard play would be to bet around 40% of pot w/ AA betting almost pure.

Sorry guys, turn was 7s lol

Why jam?

In general, our range will have a majority of 1pr hands that I would expect to be checking most of the time.

Actually I change my mind. I think calling and then donking some rivers and checking others is better.

Especially after you said he's underbluffing here.

Why do they want to check? Our one pair hands will be fairly strong here.

When you have both a nut advantage and overall range advantage and are OOP you are going to want to bet unless you are deviating to go for a check raise due to villain tendencies.

What do you mean by "Villain is capable but under bluffing this nose?"

i am most interested in what "Villain is capable" means.

Meaning some players just stone cold never show up with a bluff here. I mean Villian could have hearts here but probably isn’t firing enough for him to balance out the 34s combos (4) and sets/two pair combos (10). We clearly have a bluff catcher, but some players in my pool literally have 0 bluffs in this spot hence I’d fold all bluff catchers. This mate is capable meaning he will show up with bluffs but I don’t think at the frequency he should in “equilibrium” (I would guess at least 7-8 combos)

yeah I think we can x/call if we put him on a bluff. Jamming just gets bluffs to fold and value to snap. What rivers would you donk?!? Using the logic above, donking would seem to fold out bluffs and get value-owned by represented value. Why is fold not on option in your mind?— it’s a gross spot and feels quite neutral given 34s / 89s arrives on turn…

Sorry for the confusion. I don't think we should be checking all the time, I think sometimes we can bet. But I prefer checking as the more frequent option. Seems like a nice way to balance out the weaker parts of our range that warrant a check. Maybe it doesn't matter, and that's an unnecessary consideration.

I don't think our strong 1pr hands represent the majority of our range here, do they? We have 6 combos of AA, 12 combos of AK, and 12 combos of KQ. But we also have a bunch of weaker kings, high cards, underpairs, a couple middle pairs, and a bunch of draws.

If we're always betting the stronger parts of our range here, couldn't Vs just fold with the weaker parts of their range without making a big mistake?

Fwiw, I think I could be wrong here, but it makes sense in my head.

Fwiw, I just realized we're OTT with the 7s. I'm torn between folding and calling.

I'd raise bigger pre, at least $100, maybe $120.

I'd start with a check on the flop when OOP. Let V bet all his KX and draws. Then check raise. When he raises our c-bet, I think we can 3B, looking to over-bet jam most turns.

V is betting less than 1/2 pot on turn, setting up a river jam. But his sizing seems weak to me, like he's on a draw or not really in love with his hand, and was hoping to take it down when he raised the flop. We can jam, or flat call and bluff catch on a brick river. Think I prefer just jamming now, rather than trying to decide if we want to check or lead river.

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So good rivers are like any non-heart and non Q.

The purpose for donking is that it will gain value from hands he was overplaying that would check back, yeah some bluffs will just fold but I think we're making the assumption that these hands are mostly not there by this point.

And even some hands that are beating you will not raise. Live players are generally terrible at raising for value on rivers.

I can't tell you how many times I've taken this line and they just sigh call two pair and once in awhile even a set because "I thought you had Kings".

And when you donk and they jam your decision is just super clear whereas if you check it's a little more ambiguous.

We really shouldn't have that varied of hands because we raised large into a vast sea of live limpers from the BB. We should be quite strong here.

PF is going to be more similar to a BTN raise, BB 3bet type of range set up.

And you're not checking for balance to keep weaker parts of their range in on a board like this when you're OOP. They are just going to call a lot. i.e. 88 or A6 is not folding to your single bet. So checking just makes the rest of the hand more of a guessing game from your view point because you're OOP and you lose a street of value for no reason.

You can also check the turn when they call if you want to keep ranges wide.

If you call, the pot is $1400 with him having $800 left. There's a good chance here you're calling regardless. A non heart, straight card comes and you kind of have to call given the odds.

Jam or fold. Calling here makes no sense. It lets the flush draw or straight draw get there and there's a good chance you're calling another bet if you call anyways. There's a good chance he's got 55 or 66 here. Cut your losses or shove. You're playing with $1400 as a single buy in so the money shouldn't matter that much to you at that point.

Jam or fold the turn. This is so player-dependent it's really difficult to give good advice.

Thank you for the thorough response, spy. Much appreciated. Now I'm curious what the solver says.

Hard to simulate exactly, but if you set up a similar spot it bets AA pure and overall you're betting around 68%.