EV question with PLO8
EV Question
Hi,
I'm trying to wrap my head around figuring out EV for PLO8.
I know I should be using ranges, but for the sake of understanding , I will use the actual hands.
This is from a PLO2 game. There is .88 cents in the pot on the flop and Villain has $2.09 left and I have him covered.
Hero : [Ac As Kc Ks]
Villain : [5c Ad Jh 3d]
Flop : [2s Jc 4s]
So EV = % win rate x $ to win (minus) % of loss rate to $ to lose
depending on the cards , one of us can scoop, or we can split the pot.
When I type this into the Omaha Odds Calculator on CardPlayer.com, if I trust their numbers,
it says that Hero should scoop 36.79 % of the time and Villain 28.03 % - that means that we split 35.18 %
1. First question is, do I add the two EV's for scooping and splitting together ? It doesn't seem right intuitively to me.
.37 x (.88 + 2.09) + .35 x (.88 + 2.09) / 2 and then subtract (2.09 x .28) = 1.10 + .52 - .58
2. 2nd question is if I look at it from Villain's perspective, his EV is
.28 x (.88+2.09) + .35 x (.88 + 2.09) / 2 - (.37x2.09) = .83 + .52 - .77
It can't be possible for both of us to have plus EV - right ?
Thanks,
4 Replies
A couple problems...your scoop %s are wrong, I checked in cardplayer odds and propokertools. But assuming we use your numbers as a math exercise, the mistake you are making is when its a split you don't win half of their stack, you only win half of the middle. So the second value is just 0.35 * 0.88 / 2
You should then see that the EVs of the two players add up to 0.88, the size of the pot, which makes sense.
Thanks DD. I tried to make sense of his math, but it was such a headache I didn't even comment.
Thank you very much to both of you for taking the time to look at this.
Now it makes much more sense.
It also makes me realize that I need to think more about what exactly EV is.
Martin
