The NHL Thread
For the 5 of us who post NHL stuff, here you go. Officially the season starts Tuesday October 11, although there were tw
Spoiler
I know Trouba is excellent. He seems to take a lot of ****, but he is a very good defenceman.
I don't have much hope for Edmonton. Colorado is closer to the team that Edmonton wants to be than Edmonton is, and they couldn't beat Dallas. Colorado probably shouldn't have beaten Winnipeg, but they exposed one of the Jets' Achilles heals (one which Dallas doesn't suffer from).
I don't think Dallas is as good as they were last year. Last year I saw them several times, against several teams, take the puck up the boards by winning more than half the 50/50 battles and score. That was something that would take several minutes. They don't, probably can't, do that now.
I don't know how good Florida is. Why Maurice likes Kolikov is beyond me. They are resilient.
I know NYR is built right, excellent goalies and great defencemen. Sad about Wheeler, probably the moment he could have had his last gasp. I don't think Wheeler or Roslovic were in Maurice's good books.
I'm expecting Dallas, New York. I'll be floored if Edmonton gets through, unless the refs hand out the Gretzky/Kurri treatment.
NYR/Florida, I really think NYR is exactly in the sweet spot, talent and age wise, but I just don't know how good Florida is. We'll see tonight, maybe, unless they have an off game. And can you figure out if it's an off game? I bet it goes 7.
Three of the four teams can goalie you, so that's a wild-card.
Cheering for the Oilers but I had Dallas in the final though I had the Islanders on the other side
Rangers / Dallas is my prediction
It is being reported that Sheldon Keefe is hired as head coach of NJ Devils.
Also, I am o.k. with either Edmonton or Dallas winning.
smart money prob on the rag$ in 6 or 7, because home ice and the massive advantage in net. but florida's top 2 lines are scary. should be fun
market really seems to like florida. they did have a tougher road playing tbl and the bumz ... possible they dominate at 5v5. basically their entire team was 50%+ xg during the season. still think it'll be a long series though, but the rangers will probably need powerplays to win
Bobrovsky was amazing in the playoffs last year, he was really good in a couple of the Bruins games as well.
I can’t believe the Dallas Edmonton number is so low, feels like Dallas should beat them in 6 max
Bobrovsky was amazing in the playoffs last year, he was really good in a couple of the Bruins games as well.
he had a .915 sv% last year, which is average. he's at .902 this year, which is bad
i made a mistake earlier, he was last good in the 2019 playoffs and the 2017-18 season. basically been bad since he left columbus (.907 sv%, was .921 with cbj), good lord that contract the panthers gave him was horrible
woof, thats a bad miss by shesterkin
nice assist by shesterkin lol
Empty net goals are only trumped by own net goals.
And that was a beauty!
panthers won the corsi 54%, fenwick 56%, shots 62%, chances 56%, high danger 53%
but the xg was only 53% florida, so i guess you gotta give it up to bob, he was better than shesterkin. the latter had no margin for error, but made ~1.5 mistakes. oh well, on to the next
best cats xg: barkov 87%, reinhart 84%, kulikov 74%, lomberg 72%, verhaeghe 61%
worst cats xg: cousins 27%, luostarinen 34%, montour 42%, stenlund 42%, bennett 46%
best rag$ xg: wennberg 68%, lafreniere 65%, panarin 65%, trouba 63%, gustafsson 55%
worst rag$ xg: goodrow 0%, vesey 11%, kreider 18%, lindgren 32%, fox 39%
let me know if anyone finds this stuff the least bit interesting. if not and i'm wasting my time then i'll probably just stop after i drop a wcf preview tonight or tomorrow (i sorta feel committed because i did one for the east). or maybe i'll just do some series wrap-up stuff later on idk
corsi is total shot attempts and fenwick is unblocked shots attempts iirc. they were more popular stats before ppl developed solid expected goals models.
shots, (scoring) chances, and high danger chances seem kind of self-explanatory and intuitive
and if i'm understanding everything correctly (who knows lol), expected goals (xg) takes all this information about shots and chances and the quality of them into one stat that can kind of paint a picture of how a team or player is doing.
and this can also be somewhat predictive (especially over a larger sample). like for example, in the series preview i did it showed that barkov, reinhart, verhaeghe, and even lomberg over in just 12 minutes of 5v5 ice time in the playoffs have been among the best panthers players so far, and then tonight in game 1 they were again among the best. or like how in the canucks/oilers series i noted that tyler myers had been getting his ass kicked in the playoffs, and then that night mcdavid/draisatl scored 3-4 goals against him. it seems to work out like that a lot
(or like how some of the lowest xg rangers were also their worst players tonight)
plus-minus is an outdated, flawed stat. it's worse because goals is a smaller number than the rest, much more subject to noise, plus how it's still used on empty-net goals for whatever reason, and because of player usage issues, etc. i'd take any of the other stats over it
but i could very easily be wrong about any of this... lol
feel free to correct me if ive erred, anyone
(score & venue adjusted 5v5 xg)
dallas stars
marchment 64%, benn 62%, stankoven 60%
johnston 59%, hintz 56%, duchene 55%
pavelski 54%, steel 54%, dadanov 53%
robertson 50%, seguin 50%, smith 49%
well this is tough when their worst xg performers are some of best offensive producers in robertson and seguin, while the other 3 lines are rather beastly. marchment has crushed the 7 games he played, and their even younger studs in johnston and stankoven are helping to carry the team. it's a deep and balanced attack. this is how florida looked in the regular season, with basically everyone at 50%+ xg. scary
suter 62%, harley 56%
tanev 56%, heiskanen 55%
lindell 51%, lundkvist 51%
and there's no real weakness on the back end either, so mcdrai won't get a lot of shifts vs guys who legit suck like vs the canucks. even petrovic who played 1 game rocked a 76% xg, chill bro. and they did this against two of the best teams in the league, the golden knights and avalanche. the oilers might be their easiest test yet. but let's see...
goaltender jake oettinger was shaky during the season with a career worst .905 save%, but has bounced back in the playoffs to the tune of .918. this team is looking like a buzzsaw
edmonton oilers
mcdavid 58%, mcleod 57%, hyman 57%
perry 56%, brown 55%, holloway 53%
foegele 52%, janmark 51%, draisaitl 51%
henrique 51%, kane 47%, ryan 40%
carrick 39%, nugent-hopkins 36%
their numbers are somewhat inflated because they dominated the canucks who failed to show up in 5 out of 7 games (full credit tho), and also played the kings who are ... idk. anyway i'll let the oilers fans elaborate on what these numbers mean, because i know for example that guys like mcleod and perry turned whopping xg stats into literally 0 points due to a lack of skill. vs the canucks it was obvious that they were spamming shots from anywhere and everywhere, i guess that was their strat vs a 3rd string ahl goalie, fair enough. also wtf at ryan nugent-hopkins. he's getting caved in apparently, but still has 9 points at even strength. this is all very funky stuff. also mcdrai both look like they're playing injured, but who knows
(doesn't seem to be bothering leon much, as he has a point in every playoff game)
ekholm 62%, bouchard 61%
desharnais 53%, kulak 46%
nurse 44%, ceci 39%
yeah so this is pretty top heavy huh. ekholm and bouchard are obviously good players, but they don't have much other help. desharnais is big and seems to know how to use his size, unlike say nurse. while cody ceci continues to be one of the worst players in the league. guy might end up playing 1000+ nhl games while literally never helping his team, incredible. ekholm and bouchard need to have the series of their life and the oilers need a buttload of powerplays for them to have any chance at all ... but the stars look like they play pretty clean. welp
oh and also the oilers have 2 goalies, both of whom are pretty bad. problem?
this series could be ugly ... oilers definitely need to throw their best punch in game 1
(score & venue adjusted 5v5 xg)
dallas stars
marchment 64%, benn 62%, stankoven 60%
johnston 59%, hintz 56%, duchene 55%
pavelski 54%, steel 54%, dadanov 53%
robertson 50%, seguin 50%, smith 49%
well this is tough when their worst xg performers are some of best offensive producers in robertson and seguin, while the other 3 lines are rather beastly. marchment has crushed the 7 games he played, and their even younger studs in johnston and stankoven are helping to carry the team. it's a deep and ba
As much as I agree with everything you said .. As for the Oilers goaltending Pickford had two great games and yes Skinner has been not great. Yes he won the last two games and made a few big saves but only faced minimal shots
I do have Dallas in 5
Surprised but not surprised as contracts mean nothing, The Leafs do not have to pay Keefe his extension as he got hired and for more money.
the money matters less to the laffs than about any other team in the league, but hey saving a few mill is always good
gonna go way out on a limb and say that keefe is a ~random coach who won't move the needle for the devils. didn't see much evidence that he was anything else in toronto, or that he learned/improved or anything. then again, i didn't follow them all that close
what say you, phil? and others
the money matters less to the laffs than about any other team in the league, but hey saving a few mill is always good
gonna go way out on a limb and say that keefe is a ~random coach who won't move the needle for the devils. didn't see much evidence that he was anything else in toronto, or that he learned/improved or anything. then again, i didn't follow them all that close
what say you, phil? and others
I never liked Keefe, mostly because of his association with noted scumbag, sexual deviant, player agent, David Frost. But ultimately I think he was just another victim of that lowlife.
I think he will do well in NJ, he has shown an ability to coach young players, and the devils certainly have a plethora of them.
Edmonton fans do the best job at the National Anthem
Eye candy behind the Dallas bench ?
I never liked Keefe, mostly because of his association with noted scumbag, sexual deviant, player agent, David Frost. But ultimately I think he was just another victim of that lowlife.
i would have felt that way until i saw keefe mocking frost's accusers and fully standing with him up until he finally got into legal trouble over all that, so **** em
