PAHWM / Line check with AA UTG

Tough one, but with your image, I bet ~half pot. If he raises, you have a decision to make, but it doesn't sound as if he'll raise w/o a K.

Range bet, quarter pot.

Assume we're folding if V raises when we take 1/2 pot sizing, yes?

Same question - if we bet 1/4 pot, are we folding if V raises?

If we're not folding, what are we thinking about doing on the turn? Check-folding to a bet? Leading out (that would be weird)?

No, we aren’t folding pocket aces to a single raise on the flop.

Check or bet 10$

So we bet 1/4 pot, V raises, and...we're calling? We're not 3B'ing, right?

I assume we're checking the turn? If we c-bet the flop, and call V's raise, what do we think V will do when we check the turn?

I'd expect him to bet. It could be big, but a small bet might be even scarier. Are we folding to a big bet, and calling a small bet?

I might check, based on the villain description. Calling a bet.

Hero checks. V checks back.

TURN ($30) - KcKd4cJs.

Hero?

Bet $20 to get value from Jx, QT-Q9, pocket pairs as well as flush draws that didn't stab flop. Easy fold to a raise because villain is a borderline nit.

I think on king high boards we have a big range advantage being utg. We should be betting this flop a lot.

If we are going to have checks then aces is one of the best candidates.

As played time to get value on turn.

Late to the party but the flop check seems fine.

The Jack is fine, hopefully he's hit a pair. Bet 15-20 and go from there

I just bet $10 otf. Even nits will peel with air. Checking is fine though.

Just read thru. If THIS V raises i think you can make an extremely exploitative fold. People dont raise OTF IP practically ever without the nuts, id think even moreso with this V

Turn, honestly after checking flop, im checking turn too, people dont tend to peel for $10 ott, so id just check and let him bet his J, dont see getting a lot of value on betting, and if i wait till river i think a hand like 55 might just call $10 to see it.

Hero bets $30. V calls.

RIVER ($90) - KcKd4cJsAs

Hero?

Obviously we're betting now that we've boated up. V has $230 left behind. What size do we bet?

Wait, people are really betting less than $10 on the flop? LOL. That can't be a thing. I am bet/folding the flop about half pot because this guy doesn't sound like the type to ever raise w/o a K.

Turn is fine. River I'd bet $60 for value, $30 again if I thought he'd raise, but it's doubtful. With your image, though, I might go $100. However, he doesn't sound like the type to call $100 w/o a K, but he might just to chop.

Basically, bet whatever you think will get another dime out of him!

So...you know how sometimes you just get a funny feeling?

When he called pre, saying he was playing the rush after winning the previous hand, something in my gut said he was strong enough to 3B, or maybe just stronger than his little speech suggested.

On the flop, I don't know why, but I just figured he had to have a K. It may have just been MUBS, because of course AA gets cracked like that. But I didn't see any point in betting, and figured I'd just be check-calling flop, and maybe turn.

When he checked back flop and the J comes on the turn, I figured I had to bet something. I didn't want to get raised huge, but also didn't want to give him good implied odds to continue with QT. If he raised, I'd be done with it.

Then he flats, and once again I got that sick feeling like he was sandbagging a monster, at least until I saw that gorgeous ace from space.

Obviously I'm just doubling him up if he slow played KK. More likely I figured he had KQ or some other Kx, or possibly a lower boat with KJ or maybe even JJ. He could also have a straight with QT.

I wasn't sure how much to bet to get value from Kx and Jx, when I could have AA, KK, and AK, as well as KJ, JJ and QT, the way this was played, and I'm just folding QQ if I bet and he raises.

With only $90 in the pot and $230 behind, getting all of it didn't seem likely if I bet too small. Like, if I bet $30 and he raises, he's probably not calling a 3B jam with just Kx or worse. But of course I'm not getting anything from Jx or weak Kx if I bet too big. And I wondered if Kx and QT might not bet big for value if I checked.

Decisions, decisions...

This is interesting. It never occurred to me to check again. But in retrospect I can see the logic, I think - checking twice looks somewhat polar, like the nuts or air, and might induce him to stab at it, or bet thin with worse value?

The problem for me is I feel like an idiot checking strong hands when my opponents haven't shown any strength. If the turn checks through and this guy rivers a boat with a lower PP that would have folded to a bet, I'm going to want to lay down in traffic.

Also, checking is somewhat resigning ourselves to only winning a very small pot, but of course that often seems to be the outcome with AA.

FYI, I have a typo in my OP. I had Ad, not As. The As came on the river.

Well, it's unlikely that BN has an Ace! To me it's a question of whether you're targeting Jx or QT/44/slow played Kx. Since you don't know, I prefer a small bet ($30 or less) to get some value from Jx (which is nearly always checking behind) as well as inviting a raise from the nutted part of BN's range.

I would cbet 25 expecting him to call, then c/c turn. If he checks back the turn I'll bet the river (let him think we're giving up and let him try to represent a king, otherwise he's folding all his PP's to a turn bet).

I think he's still pretty wide there otb but it does include suited kings even though they're blocked.

25 dollars

Im jamming here. AK KJ are getting stacked most of the time, so what you do is almost irrelevant, but jamming makes sure he doesnt make a nitty call as a bonus effect. But the real reason is we are targeting KQ KT K4 JJ QT.

You only need to be called a bit more than 1/4th as often as a $60 bet for it to be the smarter move, and i feel like youll get called that often. He will fold a K plenty to this size, but thats poker.

I limp in. But we managed to get this HU to a playable SPR of ~9 (albeit OOP) so a decent result.

If 3 post flop bets go in against this guy, we lose against Kx+ 100% of the time, right? So with that mind, I check (to call) this drawless flop. If betting (second choice) I wouldn't go more than $10.

ETA#1: On turn against this guy I'm either/or. There are some draws / Jx to get value from, but I'm not sure a nitty guy continues all the time. Kinda happy getting one street against this guy or even allowing him to go off the rails himself with another check (although admittedly I am playing this from my extreme nit image, so nit-on-nit violence here).

ETA#2: Not sure I would have PSB the turn. River is super interesting and I've gone back and forth in my head on it. I think a shove might be best. AK/KJ likely can't fold. Kx is in a tough spot and may call enough to make this sizing ok. Jx is never calling. He has no air to bluff. Against straights it is a little dicey which is best but I think we do better setting our price / sometimes getting called versus having him bet/fold small. But it is possible a check may be best, unless he can check back a lotta good hands or bet/fold them very small.

GcluelessNLnoobG

For the former, the equity denial here is just about as low as possible. Everything thats behind except gutshots and Jx and PP are drawing dead, and nothing has >4 outs. If he draws out on you, thats life. I think one of the biggest ways to hand read people is the fear everyone has of getting drawn out on. Its fine to get drawn out on.

For the latter, i disagree. I think betting is resigning yourself to a small pot, because hes folding almost everything, instead of letting him catch up with a bluffcatcher on the river. And i think PP and Jx (the only hands youre targeting) is going to bet the turn far too often anyway, because the fish bet too wide on the turn as the preflop non aggressor (they basically bet any hand that hit anything).

I also just think the pot is likely to be small. You can get 1 street of value from Jx/PP, pick your street. Id pick river rather than turn, cuz blank river with your turn bet im probably checking.