Bluff line 5/10

I would 3bet or fold pre. The tighter and more passive he is I would just fold.

Once he calls the flop raise I would think he has a lot of over pairs and most likely just give up but a psb should be enough to barrel the jack on the turn, and when he calls we would need to bet a lot more otr to represent the 3 and give his QQ/KK/AA something to think about. I think the small bet makes it look like we're afraid of the straight or BDFD whereas if we bet bigger it would look like we're tryna get paid. I think he would be too committed to fold to 525 at that point.

GTO wiz FWIW ...

V opens bigger than GTO (like duh)
H would normally pure fold A9o and call/3bet some ATo, AJo is pure call/3bet.
Flop:
V pure checks; gg.

After V pure checks H almost pure bets (58% for 33%pot, and 36% for 50% pot).
FWIW after the check and you bet V pretty much only folds hands you are in front of or crushing.

FWIWx2
If flop goes x; b50; c then V pure checks this turn and H does have some 250% pot bets, but they are almost all nuts (or flush draws ... tiny amount of AdTx does do it though, as does a non-trivial amount of A9s/A8s (with all suits).

Hmmm... interesting line. Gut reaction is I don't like it, because it seems too aggro-spewy.

PRE - A9o is kind of cuspy. Calling a CO open on the BTN seems okay, if a little loose-passive.

FLOP - I understand wanting to fold out 6x here, but I wonder how much of his range V is folding on this board. Probably not 76, not all the Broadway combos, not many over-pairs, probably not many other Ax combos. Maybe he folds some of the trashiest stuff in his range, so we deny some equity, which is good.

But I don't like how raising flop commits us to continue barrelling. I think I'd prefer to call, and see what he does on the turn. We might be able to steal the pot if he checks to us, or at least start our bluff later, committing less to the pot, and keeping the SPR higher.

TURN - once he calls flop, I might check back and take our equity. But if we're going to bet, the over-bet sizing does seem to more credibly rep a strong flopped hand, like 2P+.

RIVER - ugh. Now it seems like all our strong hands on the flop have run out of value, and this would be a super thin value bet. Do we have the Ad? Could we rep a flopped wheel with A3dd or just a huge draw that rivers the flush?

I do see how it's unlikely V has a flush here, so it could be hard for him to hero call. But if he thinks we're FOS, especially if he has the Ad, or happened to turn a set, he can flat call, or possibly even check raise, which is going to suck.

I don't play these stakes, so I don't know if this sort of play works in your game. It would be pretty spewy at 1/3, and risky at 2/5.

Not sure about calling with A9o on the BN v this type of reg in the CO (abc, no leaks, decent). Would prefer 3bet or fold. The flop raise doesn't make sense to me either for (a) a half decent reg isn't range betting this flop texture; (b) your hand doesn't interact with the board aside from the ace, but I guess that means you unblock hands like 78s and (c) I can't see many value hands raising on this board (would you raise 44, 55 or A3s?).

On the turn, I don't believe 66-TT would fold due to the presence of the J overcard. Are you folding 77-TT here? How much Jx do you have in your range after raising the flop?

Without a diamond, a 7 or an 8 I'm not sure how effective your river bluff will be, given villain has bet-called, x-called. You don't have many 3s in your range aside from A3 and 33 (maybe K3s). You do have 78dd but I can't think of many other value hands aside from A3s and maybe some 66 that would bet for this size on this river. I mean if you've profiled villain as especially passive you'd want to bet bigger, but even then it's tough to see him with much ace high that isn't the nuts and tough to see him folding any pair.

I'm all for placing pressure on an ABC reg when you have position on them, but I struggle justifying every street in this hand. Anyway, hope villain found a bad fold 😀

Fold pre, especially vs a regs tight opening range.

Fold flop > call > raise

Postflop ia spew imo

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Pre is horrible and a sign you should move down in stakes

Fold pre. Fold flop. On this 3-wheel-card flop, he probably has an better ace for a gutshot or an over pair. He can actually hit the low cards more than OP.

A few responses. I didnt say he had no major leaks, i said no major leaks OTHER than being too ABC and passive, which are pretty huge leaks.

I called pre due to skill edge. Also the BB was a short stacker who was playing a 5% range. Probably just about the bottom of my range.

Well, makes me like my flop raise more anyway. I felt like my range was ahead, but maybe i have rhe same amount of 22-55.

I'm all about getting involved IP with a skill edge.

You're probably going to get roasted for this hand. Not looking to pile on. Suffice to say that part of the value of having a skill edge comes from being more selective when it comes to making theory-based plays post-flop.

If I raised flop and got called, I think I'd be done with it. We took a shot. If I waited to raise until the turn, and got called, I may or may not barrel the river.

Sometimes our opponents are just raising pre from LP with a good hand, and don't want to fold it post.

I feel like on this flop V should be checking most of his range—not range-betting as you assume—so you’re off-base from the very start.

I actually think your hand is strong enough that you should be pure-calling this size of a flop bet. We should save our bluffs for hands with absolutely nothing going for them—our T9s hands.

Once you do raise the flop, though, I believe the Turn sizing is correct—we have either sets or air, so our sizing needs to be huge.

I believe your River bet size is a mistake. I believe you need to go all-in. Particularly if you have the Ace of Diamonds (I’m assuming you don’t), but I think all of your Turn bluffs need to be all-in over-betting the River.

You have way more straights. You have way more flushes (because remember, you’re raising the flop with 98dd!). And you have more sets. And your sets should still be shoving for value because it is so hard for V to have a straight or a flush. If you flopped a set, letting KK off the hook on the River with a 40% pot bet would be a huge mistake.

So those are my thoughts.

Dont disagree. Turn was the part i was least sure of tbh.

I think typical abc regs cbet ~80-90% on almost any board. They havent caught up to “you should be checking OOP at a high %, including every single board 9 high or lower”, and i was trying to capitalize on his error in betting.

I feel like “sets or air ott” means repping flush and straight otr isnt as good?

fold pre obv. Flatting flop and raising turn seems more credible and I think will do better.

The card edge Trumps the skill edge by a thousand miles.

I have a skill edge over every player at my table does that mean I should play every hand?

is A9o (literally 1 pip off of gto continuing range) “every hand”?

Results, V opines that im scared of the flush, but says i probably still beat him and folds without showing.

The call pre was horrible. The only time I'm flatting there is if I have a dynamic with a wide CO who will turn his hand into a 4bet bluff if I 3bet. In those cases I may flat to play creative, but once he calls the flop raise I would pretty much be done.

On this flop, any ace has the gutshot you have. A good ace like AJ/AQ/AK is way ahead. A/wheel/suited has a strong draw or a straight. Any pp is an overpair way ahead. You are only ahead of like KQ, suited broadway, and suited connectors.

It is unlikely he hit this flop really hard, so if you try to play for stacks, you may get him to fold. This is a flop people like to semibluff at, but I would prefer to have a better draw to do that with.

I think this is a good example of I know I'm beat but I don't know how, from the opposite perspective.

Your line looks strong enough to convince V you have it, even if we have no idea what it is.

Ok, so ATo call is standard here, A9o is a hand youd call situationally, but due to the situation being slightly different than the one you described, you would 3 bet, therefore my situational call is “horrible”. Also did i mention the rake is $0 since its a time rake game, therefore encouraging calling as compared to rake free (which encourages more 3 bet or fold? Idk man, it seems like youre not exactly an expert at using terms of degree.

Im fine with someone saying they think i should fold, might be right. it wasnt “horrible”, it wasnt “any two cards”, it wasnt “due to massive skill edge”. I widened my range very slightly vs a slightly weaker player. Sue me.

Would be worried that H is bluffing way too much on this type of board, depending on specific combo. etc., but if it works it can't be bad ... right?

Also feel like this is one of those things where the river bet size works much better at 5-10 than it does at 1-2, where the V will just shrug and call any flop overpair because it's cheap.

Yeah, this is a board that people bluff a lot, because they have a gutshot with the ace. This is one of the weakest draws you could have. You could have an ace and a pair or a big ace or maybe pick up a flush draw on the turn.

I am not good with solvers, but not sure if this is a cbet with 99+/AJ+, partly because of the sort of thing which happened.

I agree that at low stakes it would be hard to get villain to fold an overpair, although at low stakes the caller would be more likely to have low cards which hit this board. It isn't certain he had an overpair. It seems more likely he had AK/AQ and missed his 10 outs on the river.

Preflop seems questionable, but it can't be some huge mistake to call if you want to play a flop with a specific player in position.

yeah idk. will try not to pile on pre but like pretty good indicator this isn't good is do you ever see high stakes players do this? those guys have actual qunatifiable skill advantages over people and i never really see anyone play like this. probably you are over estimating skill delta and not understanding what that means in practice / how to exert it. with that said probably a small immediate ev loss that leads to large imbalances later. the other thing is though like this isn't how we widen our pre range. if you're looking for evidence re this, take a look on gtowizard at like 100bb high rake sims, 100 bb low rake sims, 200bb low rake sims, and then straddle / ante sims with btn vs co, and while ATo usually gets played at some frequency, the hands that get added to btn's range as it grows somewhat linearly in those sims is not offsuit Ax combos, but mostly suited stuff. for reference, 200 straddles w small ante, if co opens, btn is continuing with 25% of hands and a9o isn't there.