Should I call this river raise?
Hi all,
I was playing some $2/$5 last night at my local casino.
Action folded to the button - a regular loose passive low stakes numpty home game superstar - who limped for $5, I look down at A♥Q♥ and make it $30, he calls. Effective stacks are around $900; 180bbs.
The flop comes A♠T♥9♥ - all well and good; I bet $25 and he calls.
The turn brings A♠T♥9♥8♥ - bingo! I bet $75 and he calls.
The river brings A♠T♥9♥8♥9♠ - I bet $150, he gives a speech asking if I have the flush blah blah blah and then raises to $375.
Can I find the fold here? How does he hit a set at any point and not raise earlier in the hand? 98s was a hand that came to mind that he could have. In hindsight I realized that there are very few combos of flushes that he can have here after limping and calling a raise - perhaps only KJs, 76s, 65s, 54s. Is he really going to slow play those on the turn and raise on the river? Perhaps with exactly 87s for the straight flush. The bottom line, I felt, was that I was too high in my range to fold, and that if there's a possibility he's raising a worse flush for value, there is no way I can fold here. So I made the call and he had A♣9♣.
Any thoughts/input greatly appreciated.
4 Replies
Dont reveal in OP.
Idk why but people love to slowplay flop and then raise the turn, but the flush came so he slowed down with A9/T9, or he hit 98.
Its $225 into $560, which is great odds and you have a huge hand, but the speech, and the fact hes never ever raising a flush here, its gotta be a FH. This is a spot where who knows how they got there, but they probably did.
Thanks for the response, I've reposted in a new thread without the spoiler.
It seems like you are papering over the most important part of the hand, which is that a low-stakes live poker opponent gave a speech, asked you if had a flush, and then raised the river on a paired board anyway. That's always a full house.
Any time you go bet, bet, bet on a board where you can have all the nutted hands and your opponent raises anyway, you can pretty much fold anything less than the nuts and print. Easier said than done obviously, though...
Is it always a full house though?
In theory he should balance with some bluffs right? For example, A8s/T8s that got counterfeit, KJo/KTo with the K of hearts, perhaps even some 97s/96s? I beat all of those, as well as KJ of hearts and the lower flushes. But I certainly see that having the A of hearts is bad in this respect as it blocks a lot of bluffs.
What are you saying the weakest hand is with which I should call the river? If he's only ever raising with a full house then by that logic I should only call the raise with the second worst full house and better right, so T9s?
