British Politics
Been on holiday for a few weeks, surprised to find no general discussion of British politics so though I'd kick one off.
Tory leadership contest is quickly turning into farce. Trump has backed Boris, which should be reason enough for anyone with half a brain to exclude him.
Of the other candidates Rory Stewart looks the best of the outsiders. Surprised to see Cleverly and Javid not further up the betting, but not sure the Tory membership are ready for a brown PM.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri...
Regarding the LD leadership contest, Jo Swinson is miles ahead of any other candidate (and indeed any of the Tory lot). Should be a shoe in.
Finally, it's Groundhog Day in Labour - the more serious the anti-Semitism claims get, the more Corbyn's cronies write their own obituary by blaming it on outlandish conspiracy theories - this week, it's apparently the Jewish Embassy's fault...
Its not logical
It's really quite a joke
What's so interesting to me is how Animals, a dark and menacing album usually overlooked at the time in favour of the more obviously brilliant DSOTM and WYWH (and sometimes Meddle too as well as Syd's glorious stuff), has attained a new level of poignancy now that we see how things have panned out.
Critical evaluations change so much with time eg the Victorians weren't particularly enamoured with Shakespeare. That's quite a joke too.
Very off-topic, but I saw Timon of Athens for the first time this weekend, didn't know anything about it. Brilliant, and not much talked about. I thoroughly identify with Timon. And the behaviour of the Athenians in this did remind me of modern politicians an awful lot.
And Timon can curse like a trooper about them:
"Most smiling and smooth, detested parasites,
Courteous destroyers, affable wolves, meek bears,
You fools of fortune, trencher-friends, times’ flies,
Cap-and-knee slaves, vapours, and minute-jacks!
Of man and beast the infinite malady
Crust you quite o’er."
Germany and France have called for a Europe-wide deal on migration and asylum with the UK government, to capitalise on Labour’s more “constructive” approach to EU-UK relations.
In a letter to the EU home affairs commissioner, the German interior minister, Nancy Faeser, and her former French counterpart, Gérald Darmanin, said Brexit had gravely affected “the coherence of migration policies”.
“The absence of provisions governing the flow of people between the UK and the Schengen area,” they wrote, was “clearly contributing to the dynamics of irregular flows and to the danger posed to people using this route in the Channel and the North Sea.”
Darmanin and Faeser urged the European Commission to “rapidly” present “a draft negotiating mandate” for talks with the UK on asylum and migration.
“The arrival in office of a new British government, demonstrating its intention to cooperate constructively with the EU, seems to us to be conducive to concrete progress on this issue,” stated the letter, first reported by AFP.
France has long sought an EU-wide asylum pact with the UK, but Germany has never signalled such strong support until now.
Sad thing is, 1, 2, 4 and 5 are correct.
And in theory they should be hurt by this moer than if the same happened to tories, because of how labor chooses to position itself with the electorate
Yes, hence the 'disappointment' in recent opinion polls, when the government's only just come in and would normally be enjoying a honeymoon period.
starmers 'changed' labour wasn't at all popular at the election. Even many of those who voted for them really didn't want to so not that surprising that their support was so soft.
starmers 'changed' labour wasn't at all popular at the election. Even many of those who voted for them really didn't want to so not that surprising that their support was so soft.
ok but being dialiked as much as sunak even before you basically pass any relevant piece of legislation is some kind of record, and losing 45 points of net approval in less than 3 months from the election is a lot more than what ever happened by a large margin in British history.
like no one ever came close to this dramatic shift in public opinion against him in centuries
It's a large shift in outcome of asking a binary question to many but quite possibly required a small shift in the underlying public opinion because the support of even the supporters was so weak.
Another reason could be that manys who favoured starmer had never really thought about him except as 'got to get the tories out'. That' going to be a lot more fragile than if the voters had liked something about him.
ok but being dialiked as much as sunak even before you basically pass any relevant piece of legislation is some kind of record, and losing 45 points of net approval in less than 3 months from the election is a lot more than what ever happened by a large margin in British history.
like no one ever came close to this dramatic shift in public opinion against him in centuries
His approval rating was strongly negative all the way up to shortly before thr election iirc, thought not as negative as Sunaks, so it’s hardly a huge correction.
If you elect a new government purely because youre sick of the previous government only to find that theyre almost identical, why wouldnt you expect to see their popularity shrivel in line with the old government?
I feel like they got so geared into complaining about everything without needing to come up with solutions, Labour are still in complaining about everything mode and haven't actually realised they need to do something other than complain.
And Reeves clearly trying to emulate all them Tory chancellors is possibly the worst of it, followed by the 'NHS is broken' messaging.
eg
I don't think that free holiday accommodation from a party member not a corporate sponsor is a terrible thing, but blatantly lying about it is. He think's we're all stupid.
Yep it's contemptuos lying. He does it so easily.
And he has no ethics. 'The rules' are a minimum below which we get punished. They do not tell us that 'its ok because it's not against the rules'.
What are the chances of a revolt within Labor? historical majority, chance to give their imprinting on the country for decades to come, and current leadership is rapidly dilapidating all political capital and actively countering core constituencies, isn't this normally the prelude of a change in party leadership?
~ zero from the left now all the leftist MPs had their candidacies removed and replaced with red Tories, but I've never been convinced that a lightweight like Starmer would want a long premiership and Reeves looks as if she has some of the zealotry and political ambition of Thatcher about her (as well as the small-mindedness).
~ zero from the left now all the leftist MPs had their candidacies removed and replaced with red Tories, but I've never been convinced that a lightweight like Starmer would want a long premiership and Reeves looks as if she has some of the zealotry and political ambition of Thatcher about her (as well as the small-mindedness).
Reeves approval rate though is between "black plague" and "ambulance chasing lawyer" level
Try telling her that.
So was Margaret Thatcher ("Milk snatcher") before she became Fuhrer.
Best thing she ever did. I hated that ****ing milk
I stll expect labour to recover unless the tories get their act together which seems unlikely for a while (or game changing world events). The private equity will start to flow, things will start to improve and too many will fool for it.
What are the chances of a revolt within Labor? historical majority, chance to give their imprinting on the country for decades to come, and current leadership is rapidly dilapidating all political capital and actively countering core constituencies, isn't this normally the prelude of a change in party leadership?
None at the moment. If (which i doubt) we get to the next election and labour loses or looks like it will lose so soon after such a huge majority then the pressure will be extraordinary. All bets are off.
You mean the pressure put onto the establishment by the media barons and billionaires to find a successor in the same mould as Starmer and Blair?
no that's not what i mean
Gnerally unwise to bet against the establishment but at times of extraordinary pressure, all bets are off
I mean approval dropping like a stone during the "honey moon" phase, with the economic chugging around decently and no big catastrophe happening (yet?) is like truly unprecedented, what happens if something fairly common like a mild recession appears in 6-12-18 months?
