Vice-President Kamala Harris

it wasn't a conspiracy it was all very transparent for everyone to see.

it's the views

Speak for yourself.

That’s what literally every conspiracy theorist says.

That's the only thing a model does.

Nope. Wrong for a couple reasons. Models don't even try to correct for systemic bias against a particular candidate or party. Past data shows that it is just not possible and polling error of the averages is just random. Secondly, shy Trump supporters don't exist. The amount polls underestimated Trump by in 2016 is well within historical averages and fully explained by turnout models that overestimated the education level of white republicans/conservatives. If they had known the % of whites without a college degree that made up the final total in PA, MI they would have called these states pure toss ups. There has never been a reason to think shy Trump supporters exist, it's just something mathematically illiterate conservatives say.

Wrong!
Shy nyc conman supporters, voters definitely existed in 2016, and we will shortly find out how many are still hiding in the weeds.

Plenty of people don't want to admit they support a racist, sexist, demented, rapist, nyc conman.

I've only seen you make a terrible prediction about Russia invading and also be wrong about Trump getting arrested. Hard to imagine someone that wrong being usually correct. Feel free to make more about the future.... everyone here can tell you about how they are 19/20 about things that have already happened. I doubt anybody cares enough to hate you. I just don't think your predictions mean much and I won't even believe your anecdotes about some liberal years ago without someone verifying because you are so unreliable.

Yeah, they don't though. All of the analysis from 2016 never showed any reason to think they were a thing.

Wikipedia is a heavily left wing biased source. You shouldn't rely on them to give you factual information.

There may have been some discussion about alternate slates, but nothing substantial ever came of it that I am aware of. However the proposed congressional challenge vote to suspend certification while ballot anomalies in certain states were addressed was legitimate, and would likely have been tabled if the protesters hadn't invaded the Capitol. I believe that is what Trump was referring to when encouraging his supporters to peacefully go to the Capitol and voice their support. At no point did he tell them or encourage them to invade the Capitol. As we now know provocateurs in the crowd actually incited the invasion of the Capitol, not Trump.

I have provided evidence that the national guard troops were requested by Trump and turned down. By law the president can't deploy the national guard from other states himself except in exceptional circumstances. Therefore he can't order 10000 troops to be deployed, he can only request them. He also can't order them to protect only his own supporters either. This stuff about him using the national guard to help carry out an insurrection is just absurd nonsense.

You still haven't told us whether you feel that the gateway pundit is a reliable, unbiased source of factual information. Is that because you're embarrassed? Don't worry, nobody could possibly think you're more of a clown than they already do.

That wrong? You sure did dig deep to find me saying Russia wouldn't invade. I'm almost getting the feeling like you maybe are a bit biased against me.

As to trump getting arrested, he wasn't arrested for anything swirling around in the news at the time. I stand by my other prediction made in that post that Trump would not be legally prohibited from running for President. If you want to bet on the first booking mugshot of an American president go right ahead. It's not like you said he would be arrested.

People who don't make predictions shouldn't even be legally allowed to criticize those of others. And if they do so by cherry picking wrong predictions the sentence should be enhanced.

Prediction is extremely difficult. And when I venture to make a prediction, it's only because it is against the consensus and therefor worth soliciting counter opinions against. I tore 538 a new one and was right. At least one person here had the guts to bet on it, betting their forum posting rights against mine. Nobody has seen Letsgambool since. He honored the bet and he and his disgusting centrist views are GONE from here.

I sometimes think about how we as a society at some point just dropped the expectation that "lol" should follow or be a response to something funny.

I really only know you as one of the people that was repeating the common anti invasion conspiracies at the time, so it wasn't anymore of a deep dive.

Sure I'm also pretty much always right when I get to word salad my way to victory on my losses.

Your claim was not that you make predictions so other people cannot criticize you. It was you were better at this than anyone here and anyone we know. How can we determine that, other than doing exactly what I'm doing?

Again, more stuff nobody can verify. If I was not good at predicting stuff, I'd just call people disgusting, declare myself the best and talk about how I predicted the death of the Queen of England down to the week with my superior knowledge of human life expectancy. If I actually was great sat predicting stuff, I'd just do it.

In italy the "shy trump voter" hypothesis was pushed for years by leftists (in particular technocratic center leftists) to explain to "their people" why what they all thought was impossible had happened. And we had similar events with some very bad looking demagogues both on the left and on the right, that systematically over-performed polls even in the recent past.

Afaik in the USA the "STV" HP was both promulgated by republican pollster Trafalgar, to justify why they got it right when most others didn't, and by a lot of democrats to ex-post explain what they collectively thought was impossible, so i don't understand why you feel the need to claim it's math illiterate ppl on the right claiming that.

Anyway the idea that blue collar, not college educated, over50 whites (a previously staunchly democrat demography in urban areas, not in rural areas) moved dramatically to the right even in urban areas, is the STV HP if some of them felt bad at saying it out loud the first time, after having voted blue, having been in unions and so on all their lives.

So "if only we had known uneducated whites had moved that much " doesn't deny the STV HP.

But regardless of what happened in 2016, my claim was that we have no reason to think this is still happening anymore.

I think you’re on the right, methematically illiterate and making the claims? You are also not the only one doing this, it’s common on the right and entire polling companies are based on it. Trafalgar had possibly the worst results of any pollster in the 2022 midterms, calling toss ups in races Dems won by double digits and republican wins in races Dems won by 5. They also had Trump beating Biden, getting it wrong when almost everyone had it right.

What you’re saying is still wrong. It wasn’t that pollsters didnt get that non college whites had shifted Republican they knew that, though your claim they were staunchly Dem is also wrong. They did not get that non college whites would make up a larger % of the votes in a few key swing states than they thought.if they had known that, they would have predicted the popular vote correctly, which they already did snd called PA etc pure toss ups instead of lean Dem.

Sure, if it makes you feel better to say unnamed leftists are as ignorant as you, go ahead. Doesn’t change anything about shy trump voters being wrong or Trafalgar badly missing the last 2 elections.

Conspiracies? Anti invasion conspiracies? I don't see how predicting Russia's troop movements being one of many such bluffs they've made is a conspiracy theory. That use of the term isn't even liberal, just definitionally wrong. It's interesting that you use it in that way. It's the best bludgeon you've got so why not use it on everything even when it makes no literal sense?

Maybe this is where we are going with you liberal hypocrites. What you say, the propaganda that originates in the security state or the DNC corporate shills and flows untrammeled from there, through your brain stem, and out of your obedient mouth is the absolute unimpeachable truth- even if it's a prediction. Anything that attempts to contradict the security state, the Dems or their millions of volunteer sock puppets, on any basis, is not just incorrect but a "conspiracy theory".

Any criticism of the policies which result in huge swaths of Americans in debt and with no healthcare or the wholesale murder of Palestinians on an ethnic basis, cannot be a values based critique of policy. The origin of that criticism, or any criticism whatsoever, is the abject paranoid derangement of the critic.

Until you get laid off or in some way feed into the gnashing thresher of capital, at which point you pick up a pitchfork and get woken into derangement yourself.

Is that what happened to you Deuces? You lost your job, picked up the meth pipe, and got "woken into derangement"?

What was your job anyway, one of Donald Trump's speechwriters? You certainly have the hyperbolic self-aggrandizement down pat.

Others after the fact admitted that they invented a conspiracy theory about US politicians and intelligence agencies pretending like an invasion was imminent for whatever reason. I just assumed you were in that group as I think you admit Russia did actually invade Ukraine. You’re the expert on your particular reasons to be delusional in the lead up.

If I was Trump's speechwriter he would be crushing Kamala by over 10 points.

My parents were 60s radicals so I was raised woke but in the original sense not the current hypersensitive sense.

If you were an NFL head coach, could you take the current Panthers roster and win a Super Bowl? Or would the other teams all just quit mid season because they would see there is no point playing against you?

there were no radicals in the 1960's... there were counter culture populists. That's like try to say that Al Sharpten is like Nelson Mandela.

Submitted without comment.

You aren't?