QTs bluffing in a 3bet pot

I think you're in a tough spot because you didn't take control on the flop. I could easily see hands like 88/99/TT getting real sticky on the river, especially after calling the turn. Also, since you didn't bet the flop, it's difficult to know whether Villain might call the turn with AK, especially if he is able to put you on a similarly whiffed hand.

Just fold pre

Anyone else folding to the 3! Pf? Calling means we've a 4.5 SPR with a suited Queen 1-gapper. Vs a fairly nutted range, if I understand Bellezza's typical unknown opponents. (Low 3b percentage, biased to big value.)

AP, I think we lose to most of the club-heavy draws in this Vs range. 580 back; can shove or fire 200-250 and see if they'll fold their higher card or various 7cX combos. If you think a 125 or 150 bet will do that too, bet that instead.

The problem here is, as Nh,gg mentioned, typical opponents in this spot have a "Low 3b percentage, biased to big value"

So, his check on the flop was already somewhat suspicious. My range is way behind his on this board, so I decided to check back, as he could still be trapping. However, once he checked twice, that gave me a bit more information about his range.

With smaller raise sizes at 100bb, solver suggests folding 1/3 and calling 2/3.

I'm wondering if the larger raises may push this towards indifference.

hate selecting this combo as a bluff on the turn. this hand is basically just clicking buttons

If the information you got about is range is that's its weak then you want to be putting on max pressure I would think? What does that look like though?

I would think a half pot bet turn and we're bombing the river.

I don't really like the spot you've got yourself into with QT to begin with though.

Really in a 3b pot like this when he checks the flop you either need to start firing or just give up. He has a bluff catcher that will call two streets - you can rep Jx/clubs and fire away. As played on the river I'd just give up - don't think he's folding at this point, clubs missed, you capped your range checking the flop.

I moved three white chips ($300) over the line, and he tanked for a solid 5 minutes before folding. I’m guessing it was 99-TT.

Let’s go back to the flop. I still think average 5/5 Cali tight player has a strong range advantage on this board, and even when he checks, I can’t be 100% sure he’s weak. These types of players typically have a range of 99+ and AQ+. He could easily be pot-controlling with QQ+ or setting a trap with JJ.

If he x/calls me OTF, will I really feel comfortable later on?

I don't think he has QQ+ checking this flop - he would want protection/value and would bet. No one is ever x/f this flop after 3 betting so I would expect his range to be Jx up to maybe KJ, and mid pairs like TT/99/88 and some 7x. The problem with bluffing is you need it to work at a very high frequency - if you're betting multiple streets mathematically it needs to work like 70% of the time or higher. But really this is classic hold em - you called a 3b in position with a speculative hand, bricked the flop, and he basically said he has the middle of his range. The good thing for you betting the flop is most turns/rivers help your range - any club is good, over cards are good, you have more straight draws,etc. Just imagine he has TT here and you're going to fire away till he folds.

I think folding pre is fine, it's very marginal.

Yeah we have Q high on the river, so I think we can go 200 to fold out A high type hands. Turn we can go smaller or check turn since we don't have a lot of equity. It's good to have some airballs to bluff river and some thin value bets after flop and turn check through. I think TT and maybe even thinner like 99 along with hands like QJ, JT, could go for the check, check, bet line.

Breaking your balls in a friendly way - what if he did something stupid, but you didn't see it, because you weren't paying attention?

So...I think we should probably just fold to the 3B pre, when it comes from the BB. Most low-stakes players are going to be defending the BB really wide as a flat call. When the BB 3B's, it's usually with a pretty decent hand.

Once we flat pre, I could go either way with taking the betting lead by betting small, or just checking back the flop. We have some back-door stuff going on, and don't mind taking the pot down here, or starting a bluff, and barreling if we pick up equity on the turn.

As played, after checking back the flop, our turn bet sizing is suspect. It looks like we're just randomly stabbing with ATC, hoping V folds a hand like AK. If we want to steal the pot, we should either size up to >2/3 pot, or size down, with a plan to bet big on the river, if V checks to us again.

I'm not sure what we're repping here, when we check back the flop. I'd think most of our JX, 2P, and flush or straight draws would bet flop. Seems like we're trying to rep 44 that turned a set, or something that we slow-played on the flop, like 76, hoping to induce a delayed c-bet on the turn. But I'd think 44 or 76 would want to size up here, and our draws would want to go smaller.

I don't love checking back the river, but I don't think we're going to fold out much of V's range if we bet. He could hero-call with AK. There's some small chance he has T9s or 98s, and we actually win at showdown.

The problem is that your turn bet size left us with an awkward SPR of 1.7 on the river. It feels like a punt to bet anything on a total brick, when we can just check-back our weak 1P, or bet smaller with thin value. The only thing I think a bluff has going for it is that we unblock bricked club draws and AK, but we block QsJs and JsTs.

I dunno. I could see maybe betting $150-ish, just to fold out AK and bricked NFD's. That's a size we might take with QJ or JT, hoping to get hero-called.

Well...you block TT. Why not 88?

If he check-calls the flop, we don't necessarily have to keep barreling if we don't pick up equity on the turn. It's hard for him to have QQ here, when we have QT. Hard for him to have JJ. There are lots of other hands he could have that check this flop because they missed, or just check because he checks his entire range from OOP as the PFR (like many good players do).

I'm not trying to put opponents on a very low number of exact hands. I think it's better to put ranges into buckets of thick value, medium value, thin value, showdown value, and bluffs, and size bets according to what parts of a range we're targeting to call, fold, or raise.

I would think most opponents who 3B pre out of the BB with 88-TT are aggro enough to c-bet this J-high board, when it's fairly wet. Those hands need some protection.

I'd be more likely to put V on AK/AQ/KQ, or some sort of SC that was over-played pre, and connected with the board just barely well enough to call your turn bet, something like 8c7c that picks up an ISSD on the turn. Maybe 6h5h, Ac7c, Ac5c, Ac4c, something like that.

Any hand that had enough equity to call the turn is likely to tank rather than insta-folding the river, given the line you've taken here. All his 7x and 6x combos block your combos of 76. All his Jx combos block your Jx. His AK and Ac4c beat your missed draws.

It seems like he probably had a hand with some sort of showdown value, but probably not as strong as 99 or TT. I'd say he had 88 at best, but otherwise had 1P or just AK.

Nice hand.

post looks good.

you could alternatively choose small size either otf or ott with the idea of pressuring ace highs w most of your range, but this is fine and if u do this ott will always get bluffed large otr (makes sense, u need to weak pairs - granted he prob don't have these, and ace highs which he likely have alot of)

the absolute most important thing here is you cannot check this hand down 3 streets. this is just the clearest bluff and if you dont find them with this sort of hand you're making really large game plan errors. if you think he's too tight and / or you're unable / unwilling to play well post, you should just fold pre

as you get deeper itll shift towards calling more (pure), also the size is actually pretty small

i question opening 4x as a default but w/e

My two cents, nobody ever checks their air OOP in a 3 bet pot. Youll never see AK AQ etc here. They also almost never check overpairs. I also highly doubt they check Jx, certainly wont double check

So on the flop, this is 88-JJ all day imo. Once they check the turn its 88-TT extremely often with very rare but non zero JJ. So with that in mind, i feel like we practically have a toy game. The way to apply max pressure IMO is to bet geometric sizing with a mix of Jx and bluffs. And considering QT blocks the top of his range and has 6 outs vs the rest of his range, seems like a solid candidate.

So with that all in mind, im full pot betting turn, and im jamming a decent amount on the river (whether or not i hit)

I agree this looks a lot like 88-TT, and that a bet on turn and river takes it down fairly often. Just wondering what the most efficient sizing is. Seems like a smaller bet on turn followed by a bigger bet on the river seems more credible, if we're trying to rep TP+.

Preflop is marginal enough that if you're in the HJ specifically AND villain is someone who actually 3!s as much as a bot...then it's still a 50/50 call/fold.

Postflop, literally every street is a mix. River is the clearest bet in theory but also the place you’re most likely to get owned if you don’t slow play enough and go for thin enough value.

I think pot-> pot is the correct sizing. Of anything your bet a little more than pot ott and a little less otr.

(Which is to say you also need to pot/pot it with Jx)

Capped vs capped range, you prefer to bet a size that you could use for thin value so weak jacks and strong split pairs, which is more like 1/2p or maybe even less.

You’re a little less capped once turn goes xbc and river blanks, so you can go a little bigger on the river, but no one’s buying that you’re trying to play for stacks or anything.

Yeah, I think if I was going to check back flop, and then start a bluff on the turn, I'd go like 1/3 to 1/2 pot on turn, and then size up on the river, 2/3 to full pot.

We're basically just repping Jx. No need to dump tons of money in, if we're just trying to fold out 88-TT.

If top pair beats their whole range, you wanna play for stacks with your top pair.

If we actually had top pair, and thought top pair was always good, then, in that scenario, yes, let's try to play for stacks. But putting out a smaller bet on the turn, followed by a big bet on the river looks more like Jx than going pot->pot.

Even if pot-pot is the highest EV line when we have TP - we don't need to use the same bet sizing, when we DON'T actually have top pair, if all we're trying to do is target 2nd pair and worse to fold.

There's always some non-zero-percent chance V takes this line with an over-pair, or we get hero-called by 2nd pair, or worse, two un-paired overs. If V is slow-playing an over-pair, or decides to get sticky with 88-TT, or makes his hand on the river, we save our stack by not sizing up towards a river jam.

I could understand the compulsion to be balanced if this was a high-stakes game with a bunch of pros. But it's a heavily-raked 100bb cap Cali game filled with average-at-best amateurs. We don't need to be balanced here. We can exploit with a smaller bet on the turn.