2024 ELECTION THREAD

Trump was president for 4 years, the US survived

I think the point is that these guys call up cops and pretend to either be the perpetrator or the victim. Are you saying lying to the police for the purpose of causing harm to another shouldn’t be a crime even if they do vet it/they disregard it? Are you being a filthy utilitarian?

Biden opened up the border, the US survived.

Emergency services should ignore unknown people calling in to report a robbery, or a fire, or a heart attack, just like your grandma should. Or maybe they should run through stringent ID checks prior to dispatching the relevant service, I mean, it's not like there's a fire or something.

He is yet another one I have added to my ignore list and hope to never have to read another word from.

Wait.
Are you saying that Biden and the left was competent enough to be in power and doing a good job ?
Pretty amazing for a senile president .

Ps: maga would vote for a pig before a democrat .
Just look at trump and all other candidate in 2022 they were ready to vote for ….
The concept of it’s because democrats are bad that it explains this election is a coin flip, hits the wrong nail .
The « quality » of the voters to know what they voting for matters as well .

Appreciate your accurate representation of Western thought.

Also sometimes people just believe really stupid crap. A lot of people believe that the economy is doing horrible even if they report themselves as doing well in their personal finances.

“The latest report to highlight this confounding attitude, an inaugural consumer sentiment survey from KPMG, found that 54% of Americans were optimistic about their financial situation, while only 37% were hopeful about the country’s economy overall. KPMG’s study, which surveyed 1,100 people across the country, is the latest to find a significant divergence between Americans’ relative optimism about their own financial health and their pessimism over what many consider to be a teetering economy. That split between individuals’ confidence in themselves compared to the economy has been prevalent for a few years now, even if it does appear to be diminishing, at least according to KPMG’s data. ”

https://fortune.com/2024/05/30/economy-p...

If only everyone was as morally upstanding as you.

But seriously, whats the reason why Trump can't be blamed for meddling nonsensically without understanding the region and leading to the current state? Even if you want to say fine Lozen or Trump obv don't have any idea what they're talking about sure.... but that right wing journalist wrote about how Kushner proved his critics wrong in a standard right wing pundit way. Why can't it now be pointed out that the critics were exactly right and mainstream experts that warned Kushner that no deal was far better than making things worse should have been listened to? Like in what other endeavor can you give a major position to your horrendously unqualified son in law, have him ignore competent people. completely botch it and NOT be subject to criticism? It's right wing hackery in the extreme to suggest otherwise.

Easy:

Bad outcome + Republican = Democrats’ fault

Bad outcome + Democrat = Democrats’ fault

30 more days. this is going to be glorious watching the MAGATs do one desperate thing after another for 30 solid days.

fAmIlY vAlUeS

If only. It wouldn't even be that hard.

Do you think I am out of line blocking someone who spreads disinformation and doesn't care that it kills people?

Two people have started 6 different families that's pretty good. Sounds pretty pro family values to me

I think you're insufferably smug (after only 2 posts, congrats), and will cut a wide berth around you.

There is no possible way I could give less of a *@#%, but don't think I didn't notice you dodged the question.

At least they acknowledge their kids and grandchildren

And Elon literally said his child was dead because she's trans. Bang up job on the facts as usual lol.

True to the Bible, they're not spilling their seed onto the ground.

Alright that was a good one lol

Hi friends,

So this thread has gotten away from some of us, yeah?

The personal attacks are really not okay. Guys, this is just not how we’re going to speak to one another in this community. If this escalates to this degree again, I’m going to be really fast and loose with the infractions and bans leading up to the election. CHILL out.

Checkraisdraw will return to us in 24 hours for the extensive personal attacks. There are more of you, I need to reread, there are some infractions incoming as well.

The insults need to stop from EVERYONE. It doesn’t matter which “side” you’re on.

Thank you ♥

Little did I know that polls would be received many days after the fact. I have updated my results from 9/11/24 (after the Presidential debate) until 10/1 (before the VP debate).

The 538 and NS numbers are compared with their data from the presidential debate as are mine. I have included their data from today because there have been no polls released for swing states since 10/1 (!) However there have been National polls released and my guess is that 538 and NS integrate those polls somehow (I don't). There shouldn't be too much difference because in these polls 538 increased Kamala by 0.1% and Trump stayed the same and NS increased Trump by 0.3% and Kamala stayed the same...

AZ: I have Trump up by 1% (dop of 0.3%), 2% MC, 2.8% Un (Kamala +0.6% since Debate, -1.6% after DNC, basically even prior to DNC). 538 has Trump up by 1.3% 538 (Kamala -0.6% since Debate) & NS has Trump up by 1.2% (Kamala +0.7% since Debate). In order to win Kamala needs 80% of the undecideds. If this goes the way of the 2020 election Trump would win by 2.1%. So all of us have Kamala doing better by a little than what I had before though because Un went down a bit Kamala needs to win 5% more of them than before...

GA: I have Trump up by 1%, 1.8% MC, 3.2% Un (Kamala -0.3% since Debate, +1.3% after DNC, -1% after Walz, -1% after Biden). 538 has Trump up by 1.3% (Kamala -0.7% since Debate), NS also has Trump up by 1% (Kamala +0.4% since Debate). In order to win Kamala needs 65% of the undecideds. If this goes the way of 2020 election Trump would win by 1.6%. Virtually no change.

MI: I have Kamala up by 1.5% (drop of 0.2%), 2.5% MC, 3.2% Un (Kamala +0.4% since Debate, -1.2% after DNC, +1.9% after Walz, +0.4% after Biden). 538 has Kamala up by 1.5% (Kamala -0.4% since Debate), NS has Kamala up by 1.9% (Kamala -1.2% since Debate). In order to win Kamala needs 25% of the undecideds (no change). If this goes the way of the 2020 election Trump would win by 1.6% (or 1.1% if Kamala maintains her poll number). All of us had Kamala dropping by a little due to the new polls from the past...

NC: I have Trump up by 0.5% (drop of 0.1%), 2.4% MC, 1.3% Un (Kamala +1.7% since NC scandal, -2.2% after Debate until NC Gov scandal, +0.2% after DNC, +1% after Walz, -1.3% after Biden). 538 has Trump up by 0.8% (Kamala -1% since Debate), NS has Trump up by 0.5% No change! (Kamala -0.6% since Debate). In order to win Kamala needs 68% of the undecideds. If this goes the way of the 2020 election Trump would win by 1.7% (or 1.4% if Kamala maintains her poll number). Kamala dropped by very little by me and 538 and not all for NS.

NV: I have Kamala up by 1.3%, 1.3% MC, 2.6% Un only Un changed (upwards)! (Kamala +1.6% since Debate, -0.2% after DNC, +1.4% after Walz, -1.5% after Biden). 538 has Kamala up by 1% (Kamala +0.8% since Debate), NS has Kamala up by 1.9% literally up by only 0.1% (Kamala +1.4% since Debate). In order to win Kamala needs 25% of the undecideds. If this goes the way of the 2020 election Kamala would now lose by 0.1% (before she was winning by 0.1%)

PA: I have Kamala up by 1.1%, 1.5% MC, 2.1% Un only Un changed (upwards)! (Kamala +0.9% since Debate, -0.7% after DNC, -1.9% after Walz because Shapiro wasn't chosen..., +2.3% after Biden). 538 has Kamala up by 0.6% (Kamala no gain since Debate), NS has Kamala up by 1.3% (up by 0.1%) (Kamala +1% since Debate). In order to win Kamala needs 24% of the undecideds. If this goes the way of the 2020 election Trump would win by 0.7% (or 0.5% if Kamala maintains her poll number).

WI: I have Kamala up by 1.9% (drop of 0.1%), 2.1% MC (up 0.5%), 2.2% Un (down 0.2%) (Kamala +0.2% since Debate, -1.4% after DNC, +1.1% after Walz, +2% after Biden). 538 has Kamala up by 1.6% (Kamala -1% since Debate), NS has Kamala up by 2% (Kamala no gain since Debate). In order to win Kamala needs 7% of the undecideds. If this goes the way of the 2020 election Trump would win by 2.3% (or 1.3% if Kamala maintains her poll number).

This is what I am seeing:
1) If the election was held today and the results are what we see in the polls then Kamala would win 277 to 261 assuming Kamala wins both NE2 and ME2 (she is up by 0.5% in 2 polls)
2) The polls are in 3 groups in each state: Great for Trump, right in the middle, Great for Kamala. It is likely that some of the pollsters are skewing for political reasons. In a state like MI there is only one pollster (now 2) that veers right in each segment and 3 or 4 that veer for Kamala in each segment so my guess is Kamala takes MI by 3% or 4% (less likely than I thought...) . In other states it is more balanced where it could go either way (though AZ and GA recently have been skewed right).
3) The Undecided % is far lower now than in 2020 (by about 1% at this time). In addition the MC vote will likely be more than in recent elections. This could actually make the polls more likely to be correct. It also may be that Trump is making his undecided gains now and in MI, PA, and WI the % of undecideds going for him is not as good as 2020.
4) In the States in which Kamala is leading (MI, NV, PV, WI) the undecideds are moving towards Kamala in a big way. In MI and NV she is gaining more undecideds than Trump since the debate. In PA it is basically the same as Trump. And though she lost ground at 538 in WI (and Trump outgained her 2:1 with undecideds) NS had the gains as basically even. In the States that Kamala is now trailing (AZ, GA, NC) Trump is currently gaining more ground than Kamala in undecideds. But on the bright side Kamala is still gaining ground. So the undecideds are splitting and not going all to Trump.
5) I have heard that polls this year are less likely to have undecideds veer towards Trump on election day. I hope that is true (and it looks like it is true in states that Kamala now leads in).
6) I doubt the VP debate will skew things. The CBS poll tonight has it a virtual tie at 42% Vance to 41% Walz with 17% thinking it was a tie.
7) I also doubt that the release of the Jan 6 trial papers by Smith will change much. No Trump supporters will care. No Kamala supporters will change their opinion of Trump. Undecideds could in theory go for Kamala but I doubt it. The only people it might affect in my opinion are Republicans like Liz Cheney, but I think most of those few just won't vote so it has half the affect of a switch...