Road back to HS PLO
ABOUT ME:
My screenname is portemilio. I've been playing Poker since I was 16. I started off playing poker on Runescape gambling sites where you'd buy coins ingame which had a $ value and deposit them on runescape poker sites. I found myself obsessed with the game since I was young. I specifically loved the HU format. At 16 i ran up 100$ to 20k when BTC was around 1.4k playing 6 max and 9max nlhe but ultimately got destroyed headsup because i lacked a lot of discipline and had major ego issues wanting to be the best. I always wanted to be the best and would get extremely angry when dealing with variance on top of the fact that I was an unstudied player. In college I transitioned to PLO. I got staked and coached but I wasn't winning no matter how hard I tried because of my serious BRM issues. I'd run up a couple of thousand dollars then instantly shot take 5/10 and lose it all and then go back to the lowest stakes to rebuild, rinse, and repeat. My senior year of college I decided I really wanted to give it my all. In class I'd bring my laptop and drill spots and this was the first form of studying I'd ever experienced (other than hundreds of hours of youtube videos and poker content that I consume). I significantly saw a change in my game. I've always been a highly intuitive player but with the baseline theory I developed I quickly skyrocketed though the ranks. I still had really poor mental game and not great BRM but I was able to run up my first 30k ish month in April of 2022. Unfortunately, I lost it all back shot taking 10/20 on ACR (very commend trend in my poker career). I had to take6 a fifth year of college because of a couple of other reasons but I always knew I was going to end up being a poker player. I dreaded school and felt it was the reason I wasn't succeeding because I still had to commit so many hours to school (studying Mechanical Engineering with a minor in Fluid Mechanics). I come from an Arab household and poker was not accepted at all but that didn't deter me. My fifth year I had the same routine where I'd study in class and play countless hours when I was back. I was also gaming a lot (League) so i decided to cut that out because I figured it was a waste of time if I really wanted to succeed. After I graduated (May 2022) I moved to Lebanon where my parents lived. I finally had no obligations, nothing holding me back and barely any expenses. I devoted all my time to poker (literally 15h days). After 6 months playing 1/2 - 10/20 on mainly bovada and BOL I made roughly 170k in profits. My mental health really suffered. I longed for social interaction; I had none of my friends in Lebanon and I started to not care about poker anymore. My health declined heavily and I felt despite the fact that I was winning that there was a constant judgement surrounding what I was doing. Once I showed my parents how much money I was making they couldn't complain about the journey I was decided to take ( as much anyways) but they were still greatly against it. My biggest mistake came when I decided to shot take 10/20 on Bovada. I was absolutely crushing Betonline and Bovada midstakes for atleast 8bb/100 over a sample of 400k+ hands, but when I played 10/20 nothing I did worked. I got absolutely crushed. My mental game was very strong at this point and I wasn't disheartened, I just figured it was variance. I ended up losing 45 ish buy ins (90k) running 70k below EV. This was almost 2/3 of my roll. I had heard rumors about collusion and cheating rings going on at 10/20 Bovada but I just figured that was bad regs crying about losing because the same was being said about every stake that I was consistently beating. I will never know if I actually got cheated as I have no definitive proof but I highly highly suspect that I did. At this point despite convincing myself that the loss of the money didn't affect me in reality my play began to change because nothing I did was working so I thought i had to deviate. I ended up going to EPT Barcelona in 2023 because I felt the need to prove to myself and everyone that what I was doing was a real job. I had around 50k to my name. I ended up losing 20k there playing 25/50 live (brm issues started coming back I really began to chase what I lost). Once I returned back to the US, started paying rent I prolonged into a 4 month period of break even/losing. I really thought at the time I was playing well I dont know maybe it was variance but looking back at it I had basically given up. I was playing 3h a day max and not putting in any volume at all (20k hands/month max). I'm using this 2+2 thread to hold myself accountable. I'm not going to give up on poker because I know I truly have a talent. I'm at a crossroads right now because im 24 and have little to no job experience so If I want to get a real 9-5 I'd really have to start looking now. I have a couple interviews with some investment banks just to appease my parents but it isn't something I'm taking seriously. On top of that it's really hard to explain to friends and family the journey I've been on because they don't understand variance at all. I'm not saying I didn't make any mistakes I definetly did, but to lose that amount of money is definetly gut wrenching I finally made it and saw it gone at the blink of an eye. I have a lot of fuel in me now and I'm ready to play atleast 50k hands/month. I'm not going to let anyone pressure me or feel the need to prove to anyone (online or IRL) that what I'm doing is valid, I'm just going to do it. It may get lonely but this is truly what I love and I know i will get rewarded.
I'm going to attach this month's results. I had very little money to my name, I moved to my uncles house where I'm paying no rent and felt a lot less pressure on my bankroll. I started at .5/1 and 1/2 and slowly started to shot take 2/5 and very little 5/10 volume. I played almost 72k hands this month, which is the most volume I've ever put in in a month in my life. Attached is the graph. Eventually when I fix my old computer I'll export the DB to my new one and merge them. I will be posting interesting hands and lines I play here as well as weekly-monthly updates. I want to hold myself accountable no matter what and am interested to hear people's thoughts. I only have the last two months of my play tracked I'll post them shortly as I had to buy a new computer
GL ME!
busto or robusto?
I heard he became a delivery guy
I’ve been grinding high stakes live haven’t had the chance to update thread in a while.
I’ve played live everyday for the last 3 weeks from stakes 25/50-100/200. Probably the hardest time in my career so far. Adjusting to live swings is honestly insane. I was up a lot then I lost a lot. I don’t feel the stability that online brought me. I feel stuck.
My current problem is that all my stuff is in the US. Im still in Cyprus but my trip is ending in a week. Not busto but definetly going to have some rebuilding to do in the 5/10 streets online when im back . PLO is a brutal game and the live factor of playing 30 hands / hour while being unable to win for like 10 days straight is physiologically challenging for sure.
I came in with a all in or nothing mindset since I know I’m crushing online and this could really catapult my career so I don’t really regret the experience. I got to travel a bunch .
Just craving for some normalcy and stability in this poker journey rn. I move to Chicago in 10 days so I’ll hopefully finally be able to settle down, get my work set up going and just chill. I’ve literally been playing poker on my ipad for the past month because I don’t have a functioning computer. Like all these small things add up in the type of guy that needs a perfect environment to excel
Anywho, I’ll try to not forget about the thread and keep yall updated but yes I’m still alive and grinding. I still have high hopes and ambitions I feel like it’s pretty normal to go through this eventually I’ll make it
playing on your iPad? why didn't you just buy a laptop for a few big blinds instead?
I’ve spent like 4000$ on equipment already that’s broken I’m taking a stand. I have a brand new MacBook Pro that literally broke a week after I bought it and they didn’t have the part to repair it while I was staying in Lebanon so I’m just gonna fix it when I’m back in the US. Definetly me being stubborn but also like my luck has been so bad
I’ve spent like 4000$ on equipment already that’s broken I’m taking a stand. I have a brand new MacBook Pro that literally broke a week after I bought it and they didn’t have the part to repair it while I was staying in Lebanon so I’m just gonna fix it when I’m back in the US. Definetly me being stubborn but also like my luck has been so bad
that makes a bit of sense, however, i imagine the $EV gained by playing on a proper laptop vs slouching around with an iPad would have probably exceeded the price of the damn laptop.
unrelated: care to divulge how much was lost in those live games?
Are you playing with all your own money in these live games? These shots are def make it or break it moments
Okay I'm officially back. TLDR; this post is going to contain a lot of drama about my life for the past month and a half ish. If you only care about poker its probably not for you.
The delays were really unfortunate to finally get back into the grind full time. After i left Cyprus end of August, I came back to NY to get my car from my uncle's house. We were fighting a lot over the summer over stupid things and he has serious beef with my dad that's been ongoing for the past 15 years. I, unfortunately, got caught in the cross hairs. My uncle, while i was gone over the summer, forged my dad's signature (my dad bought me this car when i was like 18 and it was in his name), and transferred the title over to his name fraudulently. My aunt was unresponsive and my uncle was running from the cops for other frauds he had committed and had to fled to Lebanon. So now i was stuck with a situation where, me, the rightful owner of my car, was stuck in NY and the only way i could retrieve my car was to illegally trespass my aunt and uncle's property (who have exhibited seriously psychopathic behavior) to get my car. I went to multiple different police stations, but they were all extremely unhelpful since on paper it genuinely looked like my uncle owned the car. It took me 2 weeks of sleeping on a bum ass couch at my best friend's apartment and going back and forth from Westchester (where he lives) to NYC by train (since i had no car). It was a brutal two weeks to be honest. The back and forths, talking to cops, talking to lawyers, and just the disappointment in our legal system was really absurd. Not only were the cops unhelpful but they were also rude as **** and extremely dismissive, transferring me over to different police stations left and right; I was drained. I was able to transfer the car title back to my name and once I found that out I decided **** it and I entered my uncle's building (where i technically lived before I left for the summer) and retrieved the car with no hassle. So that was the end of that saga. I had to order new keys (500$), a new title (300$), re-register my car, re-inspect my car, not including the two weeks wasted doing absolutely nothing. He probably cost me like 20k in EV just from staying in NY. Anyways, I'm glad that that's over. Onto.. more unfortunate occurrences...
My plan after leaving Cyprus was to move to Chicago. I didn't have an apartment there, but my girlfriend lived there and she was the primary reason i was moving there to be honest. Don't get me wrong; I had visited the city a couple of times and absolutely loved it when I visited with my friends, but her moving there really sealed it in and I just HAD to get out of NYC, it was way too chaotic (especially with all the family drama) and i just needed a fresh start. So from Cyprus, I decided to go apartment hunting in Chicago. I stayed with my gf for 2 weeks in a studio from early September to sept 10 ish, when i went to NY to deal with all the car drama. I found apartment before heading to NY and my lease official start date was sept 16. This was an EMPTY apartment and i had to furnish it all by myself, which was not an easy task. Not to mention that my girlfriend wasn't really helpful in this aspect and I had no friends or family in Chicago. On top of that, i had to keep extending my trip dealing with the situation of my stolen car (i ended up leaving sept 28!). So i also missed out on 11 days of paid for-rent which amounted to 700$ ish. I didn't give a **** i was just happy the situation was finally over, I could move to Chicago, furnish my apartment and be close to my girlfriend, **** money i can make that back my mental was more important. On the day before i left for Chicago ( I drove btw, a 15 hour car ride with a car packed to the brim), I visited my half-brother in NJ. We hadn't talked in a while and we had a bunch to catch up on. He's single currently and was looking to move to NYC, and was asking to see my Hinge profile (where i met my girlfriend). So i redownloaded the app and gave him my phone. It was late and we were watching a movie so i wasn't really paying attention to what he was doing (not to mention I spent all day packing and moving things in and out of storage etc). It turns out after looking at my profile in NY, he then set my location to Chicago to check out the girls there.
This is what completely ****ed me.
My girlfriend ( A NY resident her whole life) has made two whole friends in Chicago since she's moved there (2 months ago). One of her friends found my ****ing profile. So now it looked like I set my location to Chicago and was checking the girls out there. And the fact that my gf's friend found my profile made this situation 100x worse because now it actually looks like I had plans to cheat. So, the next day while I'm on the road to Chicago... I get a phone call from my GF. She is sobbing hysterically saying all sorts of things and im confused AF tbh. I didn't tell her that i redownloaded the app cuz it genuinely wasn't relevant like who cares its not that deep i was ****ing around with my brother and he asked to see my profile (WHERE I MET HER!). She, unfortunately, did not believe me and we decided to talk when i got there.
I finally get to Chicago (and honestly i was expecting her to help me move in a bit). Not only did i have a full car but i had also ordered like 50 packages on amazon to my mailbox at the building and the process of building furniture, moving stuff, cutting up boxes, was absolutely ****ing gruesome not to mention that i was EXHAUSTED. I had just dealt with my uncle for 2 weeks, lawyers, cops, and driven 15h straight. I needed help but since she was so upset about this situation she wouldn't talk to me. So i decided **** it we move on, brought up all my packages started unloading everything, and by 4-5 am my mattress was set. I still had like 30 boxes to go but whatever at least i had somewhere to sleep for the night (which was a good feeling tbh).
Next day, i go see her. Absolute trainwreck. She accuses me of cheating and said the simple act of downloading the app (no matter the reason) was cheating. In her mind there no was nuance to itl; I cheated and had to own up to it. I was literally ****ing mind boggled. I was trying so hard to be patient and explain to her the situation but nothing I said mattered. She ended up kicking me out of her apt sobbing hysterically and screaming at me. I obviously was ****ing mad as ****.
I gave her some space and just decided to grind on making my new apartment my home; I did a really good job. I did have to hire some help for a couple of the bigger items (couch and L shaped desk), but overall it was a success. I invite her over a week later to talk because I didn't like the way things ended last time. To my surprise, she had told me we broke up that last conversation (or well she broke up with me). The conversation was a lot better; but basically the only way she would stay with me is if I took accountability for the **** she was saying I did. And don't get me wrong I was definitely in a better headspace and not trying to say what I did was completely innocent (even though it was) just to appease her, but I definetly wasn't planning on owning up to everything. At the end of it, there was no persuading her to my POV so we broke up. Huge bummer since I basically moved here for her. Ngl this was another big life lesson for me, not that I needed one with everything I'd been through this past month (not to mention everything going on in my home country Lebanon, where my parents live). I learned not to put all my eggs in one basket and to just ****ing focus on what's good for me. I could've picked any state or even country I wanted to and I moved here for her and she couldn't see that because of a stupid dating app and miscommunication. Anyways, everything that happens, happens for a reason and obviously this was not the right girl for me so maybe it was a blessing in disguise. Just really bad timing as I literally had just moved here and was relying on her a lot socially tbh.
Anyways, it's been 5-6 days from that point. The way things ended were unfortunate but the mere fact that she was so illogical honestly made this an easier break-up than what it could've been. Obviously things weren't going to workout in the future if this is the way she saw the world.
MY PC broke again, so i ordered a new Alienware tower and finally finally my APt is fully set up. I downloaded all my apps, I'm just waiting on a couple of minor inconveniences before i can fully get back in my poker grind, should be a couple of days.
I haven't played online poker consistently since June. Cyprus was brutal I lost around 60k there after being up 40k, so an 100k swing. The games were great just ran really bad. Definitely some regrets but learned a lot and met a lot of great people. Def going back next year with a bigger bankroll and some thicker skin. I'm definetly worried about the amount of time I've taken off from poker. because of how everything played out, I haven't really played since I left Cyprus. So its been almost a month and a half of no poker. I needed the break, i was playing live for like a month straight for 10h a day +, but yeah Definity some nerves getting back into the online sphere. I'm going to be starting at 1/2 and 2/5 just to get the ball rolling again and feel comfortable again, so it's going to be a slow process. My roll definitely took a hit but I'm not too worried I've been in worse spots. Should be back to normal by the end of the month.
Anyways, this was a long ass update with a lot of drama. Hoping to finally post some actual poker content. If you guys have any questions about my live experience in Vegas/Cyprus feel free to ask I didn't really get into that much in this post because it feels so long ago; and I wasn't really able to update while I was there cuz i was really focused on what I was doing didn't have time for any distractions.
Hopefully I can get some rungood in life soon! Now that I'm settled for a year It should be a lot more smooth sailing.
Okay I'm officially back. TLDR; this post is going to contain a lot of drama about my life for the past month and a half ish. If you only care about poker its probably not for you.
The delays were really unfortunate to finally get back into the grind full time. After i left Cyprus end of August, I came back to NY to get my car from my uncle's house. We were fighting a lot over the summer over stupid things and he has serious beef with my dad that's been ongoing for the past 15 years. I, unfortun
lmao. Im sorry but your problems are f'n hilarious for someone firing high stakes. I know youre young but come on bruh, this was a car your parents bought you that your uncle now scammed out of you. Just get a diff whip and chalk it up to life. Hell get a car note and build your credit or something if you dont have the money(a couple buy ins in the game you purport to be playing) you want to put towards it get a note and pay 1 buyin a month for a yr or two and build your credit. You did all that , still had to pay 800 (registered it in the state youre moving from tho with prolly the highest registration fees? Odd choice) and then drive 15hrs. Shoulda just bought one in Chicago even tho Chicago is a **** city to own a car in bc downtown(I presume where youre living) parking fees are insane.
Next issue with your gf, cmon you were caught with an updated dating profile from when you were bunking with her in a studio. Rofl. Youre moving to a whole ass new city for this woman. Obviously it was prolly her not her friend who found your profile btw due to your proximity being in the same location and all. Feel like thats a no brainer and the friend finding it was the lie ppl say in toxic relationships to paint the other person as the cheater when theyre cheating. Just saying. Also I thought you dated men? Or is that from a diff plo thread op? Nothing wrong with that just curious.
Your prior post from Cyprus is another debacle that tilts tf out of me to imagine the ppl Im firing against are going thru if theyre beating me at the time. For starters macs suck balls just get an hp and a portable monitor and blam, you can travel and have two monitors going with lots of tables and stuff. When Im grinding live Im almost always firing on my phone due to how slow it is live, this helps me get thru the boredom of it all but Im pretty gen.
The Rivers near O'hare has pretty good live games fwiw. I fly in to play there every so often from CO for a weekend or something.
Anywho my advice to you is take a breather, realize all your problems are seemingly self made as everything with the car while annoying having scumbag family thats the way it goes you didnt need to go thru any of that, and the stuff with the girl, cmon. Toxicity will ruin your life young blood your life is about making money playing a game you need a level head for. Anything that takes from that takes from your pocket.
Sucks whats happening to your country fwiw. I imagine that adds a lot of stress to things. Hopefully Hez gets gg'd and all things can go back to normal.
lmao. Im sorry but your problems are f'n hilarious for someone firing high stakes. I know youre young but come on bruh, this was a car your parents bought you that your uncle now scammed out of you. Just get a diff whip and chalk it up to life. Hell get a car note and build your credit or something if you dont have the money(a couple buy ins in the game you purport to be playing) you want to put towards it get a note and pay 1 buyin a month for a yr or two and build your credit. You did all that
its a 40000$ car, i paid for half and he paid for half. and ive had the car since 2019 i have a lot of history with the car. also just have put in a **** ton of money into it + didnt want my uncle to just get away with comitting identity fraud in me and my dads name definetly was more of a personal vendetta. and yeah paying 300/month for parking but fk it its actually been super helpful and one of the main reasons i thought itd be useful was for traveling to casinos anyways + convenience factor for other things . was considering selling it but after whole debacle with my uncle i was like fk it i wanna use it
with my gf, yeah that **** was dumb. idk why i signed a year lease i was actually considering just airbnbing for 2-3 months before hand but i couldnt find any that were good, and the only relatively good ones were like 5k/month which was a complete waste of money. even tried to find furnished apts but same thing just really expensive for no reason and i was really craving stability so i just signed the year lease didnt put much thought into it + i thought id be with my gf atleast a little longer and not get broken up with the first day i moved here lmao. definetly a lot of short thinking but i was stressed! and regarding the hinge profile nah my brother used my acc while i was still in NY and changed the location from NY to chicago there to check out the girls there; so when her friend in chicago sent her my profile she thought i changed the location myself when i was in NY to check the girls out there and didnt believe the story of my brother doing it even tho hes a ****boy and it fits his MO quite perfectly
good to know about rivers heard its low stakes though would rlly only want to play 10/20 + if live but im having trouble finding higher stake games at casinos near me that run often
yeah the cyprus **** regarding my laptop was just dumb as **** idk im stubborn as ****. i also hyper focus on things i have pretty severe adhd which explains a lot of the reason i cant just go into something halfway - i cant play poker without my full set up or ill just be distracted i need the perfect environment to excel. i dont do things half way if im doing something im doing it 100% which is something im ob trying to work on. Like i cant even manage going to the gym and playing poker at the same time. I either work out and get super in shape or i play poker and let myself go theres no inbetweens.
anyways appreciate the response definetly some good insight about keeping a level head and just taking a deep breath, thats part of the reason i wanted to leave NY there was just so much toxicity there. obv the gf was a good excuse but i knew things werent gonna last with her anyways she ways too left-sided politically for me to an extreme to the point where nothing i said or argued was ever right which was annoying af.
but yeah **** toxicity the best pokeer i ever played was when i had no drama and thats something im trying to recreate. also trying to find some office space i can rent just to geto ut of the house cuz i have no friends rn and im home all day its not a good look for my mental
Feel bad for you, sucky situation. Can you sublease and move back home if that’s something you’d be interested in? The isolation in a new place without any familiar faces must be tough.
UTG vs BB, i lead 3/4 on flop he pots i call, turn i decide to check. i think i should pot lead turn though, he ended up 1/2 i jammed anyways
we hold vs at78 with nfd . turn was clearly a mistake i think to not lead
co vs sb 3b pot im IP. 754 2t flop he x i b 1/2. turn he x i b 1/2. river he x . do we jam or check?
(Also in hindsight, turn bet is bad should be a check, looked it up afterwards which makes sense, it would suck to get check jammed on here probably want to bet a lot more polar, im rusty! )
being a holdem player and total beginner in plo but trying to think for fun I would x back river but if block the king jam it in. If its low flush card jam it in. The king looks to me as scary card by him improving to boat often but how often he calls with something worse and how often he really turns a boat on the king I have no clue. Check it back?
Feel bad for you, sucky situation. Can you sublease and move back home if that’s something you’d be interested in? The isolation in a new place without any familiar faces must be tough.
yeah man im really going through it right now tbh. I had an awesome life in NY. I left everything here for her just never expected this to happen tbh i usually make +EV choices but i miscalculated clearly. I could technically, I'd have to find someone that would want to fully buy out the remainder of my lease. But i just spent the past 3 weeks furnishing this place (and its cost me over 8k). Im FINALLY settled in. Im FINALLY grinding again. I just cant get myself to leave right now. i actually just posted on reddit look for ways to make friends in chicago by myself. But defiently feeling super lonely and given that my work is what it is i dont really get the chances to meet people naturally that often im mostly just stuck home a lot. I plan on putting myself out there a ton and hopefully i make some meaningful friends. Thanks for the response
I think I miscomunicated the HH action. Im in the BB and hes UTG. I open leaded from the BB for 3/4 and he pot raised. His range from UTG doesnt really have a lot of sets, given the fact that i block all 3 of them i put him a lot on a hand he was holding (top pair + nfd), aces nfd pair, pair wrap fd etc. So my plan was to call the flop raise and get away on flush completes on turn / obv straight draws that completed. when the turn is the 6, this really is just one of the nut cards for me. I think its really bad now to check, given the spr is 1.5, and let villain check IP and realize his equity. my hand needs a lot of protection and im not a favorite vs his draws. i think pot leading OOP out of action really is the best play here. SUper unlikely he has a straight, if he has a set im obviously dead (and i think thats the reason i checked in game because i was planning to fold if he potted since most people just play faceup in these spots). But looking back i dont really like that line of thinking i think protecting my equity and hand is just higher EV and there are quite litearlly no good river cards, especially if IP is significantly under bluffing when he bricks.
My bad I misread the action. As played makes total sense to lead turn.
yeah man im really going through it right now tbh. I had an awesome life in NY. I left everything here for her just never expected this to happen tbh i usually make +EV choices but i miscalculated clearly. I could technically, I'd have to find someone that would want to fully buy out the remainder of my lease. But i just spent the past 3 weeks furnishing this place (and its cost me over 8k). Im FINALLY settled in. Im FINALLY grinding again. I just cant get myself to leave right now. i actually j
Just a reminder that may help you not be too hard on yourself for moving. In the long post above you wrote:
thats part of the reason i wanted to leave NY there was just so much toxicity there.
It seems you've already forgotten about that!
Wanna share some pics of your new place?
co vs sb 3b pot im IP. 754 2t flop he x i b 1/2. turn he x i b 1/2. river he x . do we jam or check?
(Also in hindsight, turn bet is bad should be a check, looked it up afterwards which makes sense, it would suck to get check jammed on here probably want to bet a lot more polar, im rusty! )
I like the turn bet, you're so rarely getting XR here, getting overpair to fold is a fantastic result. Don't see a lot of reason to bet river, everything got there its so hard for him to hero call you with worst.
3b pot im oop i lead flop for 1/3, bet turn for 1/2, and jam river. thoughts? i think turn bet is good given i have the 9 , unblocking nut flushes, and blocking some boats. obviously losing to QJ. River is close i think maybe 1/3 is actually better and folding to a jam it puts his range in tougher spot anyways. I like my flop and turn play. im unsure about river
ep limp sb iso i call in BB. open raiser cbets 1/2 i call other guy (left of me) calls. turn guy who open raised checks, i think this is just our nut bluff combo. Sizing wise, i think really only size makes sense here. the limper (whos a fish) is short and has a weak range. and mostly just want to have QT and maybe some 2p + redraws/set+redraws? SO i go for it. The questions is once he bets do i ahve to call off. i need 30%. Do we think we have that given the action? Probably unlikely. In game i just went with it given that i have 20 ish "potential" outs but i doubt i actually ahve that many.
I like the turn bet, you're so rarely getting XR here, getting overpair to fold is a fantastic result. Don't see a lot of reason to bet river, everything got there its so hard for him to hero call you with worst.
i see what you're saying you're right in the sense that this pool is definetly not raising oop vs a bet to protect their hand enough here. a lot of vulnerable trips (aa4x, even some straights) jam here oop which i agree doesnt happen in practice often enough they just bluff catch. I just find on this turn and clean runouts they tend to overcall so i like being more picky with my bluffs. not that this isnt a good hand, but it has equity to realize in the off chance he does jam and i just have way worse hands i can bet fold here, like complete garbage hands. i Just dont want to overbluff this spot basically. I think vs tighter players id just 3 barrel as an exploit and vs stationier players id prob x turn. he ended up calling me down with aak5 with Ac which i thikn is actually a good call
im trying to study this spot and see which combos of kt73 pot raise (which bdfd, the weaker ones, the higher ones etc), 2bdfd, 1 bdfd. Whats the best way to filter out the data here and understand the pattern?
I'll tell you if you promise to only play live. I was 4 tabling Ignition PLO500-2k around the time of your recent hands and we probably crossed paths.