2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
It probably had to do with flight patterns of unknown aircraft.
A few years ago I was walking thru the Hard Rock Tampa, the phone rang and I answered it while taking a seat to rest the bones. It was a friend with a serious Jesus/Buddha/'60's Hipster rap himself, excitedly informing me that Bob Dylan had just won a Nobel Prize as a lyricist. He had told me years before that Dylan wrote the best lyrics in music. So I guess he got that right.
So as I take the call and sit, I listen to his rap a while, hypnotic -- the guy had been a psychic, a cult leader, a spiritualist, a seer, a philosopher, all kinds of stuff -- and then I look up for some reason. Right above me is a huge portrait of Dylan in that Hard Rock lobby. I wrote it up in a synchronicity chapter.
Today the friend emails me with a chapter on his autobiography we are working on, citing in it the Dylan song, "Idiot Wind." I'd never heard it, I don't think. The lyrics about "an idiot wind blowing through our skull ... covering the truth with lies" ... are right on, he says, about the election, us surrounded by idiot trumpsters. Yes, all politics includes lying. But there is a distinct brand of it which attempts to obliterate reality with lies. It has been warned against down through the ages. And here it is again.
u guys i saw the evidence before he deleted it and its totally legit
One of my crusty alternative medicine friends just told me she’s voting for Trump because she likes RFK Jr. Bonus meme she believes all cancer is caused by parasites.
Well now we know what we can use Ivermectin for.
A few years ago I was walking thru the Hard Rock Tampa, the phone rang and I answered it while taking a seat to rest the bones. It was a friend with a serious Jesus/Buddha/'60's Hipster rap himself, excitedly informing me that Bob Dylan had just won a Nobel Prize as a lyricist. He had told me years before that Dylan wrote the best lyrics in music. So I guess he got that right.
So as I take the call and sit, I listen to his rap a while, hypnotic -- the guy had been a psychic, a cult leader, a spi
'Blood on the tracks' is an awesome album. Listen to it.
Listen to a lot of Dylan. "He sat behind a million pair of eyes And told them how they saw"
Although in the end he conludes were all idiots. So I might agree more than you re politcs. (probably about a breakup anyway)
'Blood on the tracks' is an awesome album. Listen to it.
Listen to a lot of Dylan. "He sat behind a million pair of eyes And told them how they saw"
Although in the end he conludes were all idiots. So I might agree more than you re politcs. (probably about a breakup anyway)
Indeed. Idiot wind is a great song too.
crazy how close the polling got, 4 weeks ago trump was a absolute dog especialy after the debate but idk how the gap narrowed so quick.
I wasnteven looking at polls then i kept seeing harris do all these media blitzes randomely and suddenly, from doing very little in august comapred to sept and october it was a huge diference then I decided to look at the polls and polling was way more narrow as I expeced after seeing the media bllitz
I cant believe whoever is running Kamala’s campaign has allowed her these few public appearances over the last few weeks. Immediately after the coup it seemed like they were going to do the Biden basement strategy that worked so well 4 years ago. They had to have known how unpopular she’d be the more the public got to know her considering how poorly she did in the primary 4 years ago.
She went from a favorite to win when the media had no access to her to being +160 today.
She’s done well so far trying to avoid policy discussion and sticking to the personal attacks on trump, which is and always was the only play she had to try to win the election. Only way to make this a competitive race is to fake some kind of sickness or family emergency that hides her until after Election Day, because it’s too late for another coup.
I cant believe whoever is running Kamala’s campaign has allowed her these few public appearances over the last few weeks. Immediately after the coup it seemed like they were going to do the Biden basement strategy that worked so well 4 years ago. They had to have known how unpopular she’d be the more the public got to know her considering how poorly she did in the primary 4 years ago.
She went from a favorite to win when the media had no access to her to being +160 today.
She’s done well so far
as I said above it was jarring going from very littel appearances to media blitz in a way buit tbh i assume they internally saw the polls shifting and needed to do it
her camp, imo, has done all the right steps imo the public appearances were more than needed after seeing that they internally saw or else they woul dhave still been a bit more by the book wrt media apps
crazy how close the polling got, 4 weeks ago trump was a absolute dog especialy after the debate but idk how the gap narrowed so quick.
I wasnteven looking at polls then i kept seeing harris do all these media blitzes randomely and suddenly, from doing very little in august comapred to sept and october it was a huge diference then I decided to look at the polls and polling was way more narrow as I expeced after seeing the media bllitz
Very close to the election the % of undecided declines, and they break favourably for Trump (just because if you were undecided in July or August it means all the "Trump is a big risk for democracy" and so on doesn't matter that much for you)
Very close to the election the % of undecided declines, and they break favourably for Trump (just because if you were undecided in July or August it means all the "Trump is a big risk for democracy" and so on doesn't matter that much for you)
I agree with the bolded, but why does that imply undecided voters break favorably for Trump? In other words, if an undecided voter is choosing based on policy or some reason other than Trump being a risk for democracy, why is that person more likely to eventually vote for Trump?
I agree with the bolded, but why does that imply undecided voters break favorably for Trump? In other words, if an undecided voter is choosing based on policy or some reason other than Trump being a risk for democracy, why is that person more likely to eventually vote for Trump?
I think it was ricky which explained why it was proper to assume much more than 50% of the undecided who ended up voting would have voted for Trump but i can't find where he explains the thinking process behind that
Guys you can just look to see that there was an onslaught of conservative biased polls released in the last month. It's not that complicated.
Guys you can just look to see that there was an onslaught of conservative biased polls released in the last month. It's not that complicated.
This sounds like cope tbh.
In Georgia for ex atlasintel and Quinnipac, 2 sources rated as "least biased" by mediabiasfactcheck , just came out Trump +1.5 and T + 6.5 (!!).
Atlasintel also has T+2.9 in Pennsylvania
I don't care what it sounds like to you. AtlasIntel uses opt-in online polling which is heavily influenced by link sharing. Sorry your quick googling didn't tell you that. And I was referring to way more polls than just a couple. There have been close to 30 brand new conservative biased polls released in the past month. This is not even hard to verify.
Back on my ignore list you go. Was hoping you weren't coming back when I tidied it up recently.
Oh well.
But good luck with your confirmation bias.
I think it was ricky which explained why it was proper to assume much more than 50% of the undecided who ended up voting would have voted for Trump but i can't find where he explains the thinking process behind that
Perhaps his logic is that, after you remove the "Trump is a threat to democracy, the remaining pool of potential voters skews heavily Trump. That's true, but it doesn't necessarily imply that undecided voters will skew Trump. (The reason is because undecideds are not a random sample of potential voters in the remaining pool.)
Another possible explanation is that Trump's policies are much more popular than Democratic policies, but I don't see any basis for that assumption either.
3 tell-tale signs that Harris will beat Trump: Real polls, fake polls, enthusiasm
Some excerpts:
Here’s why Harris is likely to win:
FAVORABILITY
In accredited polls, voters simply find that Harris is a better candidate. In an AP poll released on Monday, Harris is plus-5 in favorability (51-46%), while Trump is minus-18 (40-58%).
...
FAKE POLLS
Two new independent national polls released Tuesday reveal Harris’ lead persists: Morning Consult (with no change vs. its last poll) shows Harris up 50-46%, while a Reuters/Ipsos (also no change vs. its last poll), shows Harris ahead, 48-45%.
Still, Many MAGA enthusiasts point to questionable polls and Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, whose bettors were giving Trump a 60% chance of winning this week, while Harris’s chances were 40%.
But the Wall Street Journal reported the Polymarket surge “might be a mirage.” The candidates were in a dead heat at the start of October.
According to the Wall Street Journal:
Trump’s gains on Polymarket have cheered his supporters, and they have been followed by the odds shifting in Trump’s favor in other betting markets. Elon Musk flagged Trump’s growing lead on Polymarket to his 200 million X followers on Oct. 6, praising the concept of betting markets. “More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line,” Musk posted.
But the surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively pumped about $30 million of crypto into bets that Trump will win.
In addition, the Democrats have pointed to a flood of fake GOP polls that are implying that Trump has momentum in the final month. But Democratic analyst Simon Rosenberg, who predicted the arrival of these polls weeks before they appeared, is calling them out — along with sites like FiveThirtyEight, which acknowledges the polls are bad data, but includes them anyway.
“Since late August more than 70 right-aligned polls have been dropped into the polling averages,” Rosenberg writes. “The two states that have been worked the hardest are North Carolina and Pennsylvania. In October of the 27 Presidential polls released in Pennsylvania, 16 are from right-aligned pollsters, a majority. Since Aug. 31, of the 41 Presidential polls released in North Carolina, 21, a majority have home come from right aligned pollsters. At least 31 right-aligned pollsters and sponsoring organizations have released polls in the last 7 weeks.”
North Carolina might be a tell-tale: “Trump and his campaign spending this much time in North Carolina shows they know they are behind in electoral college,” former GOP campaign strategist Matthew Dowd tweeted. “If they are trying this hard to win NC, it means they know they are in trouble.”
Rosenberg added: “This 2024 red wave op is much larger and involves many more actors and polls than the red wave campaign in 2022. It also involves new players — Polymarket, Elon — and feels far more desperate, frenetic, unhinged. Trumpian.”
Trump spending time in North Carolina indeed signifies trouble. Harris spending any time at all in Texas is also quite telling. Why Texas and not swing states? The answer is clear, and it explains both: internal polling for both sides shows the blue team with a big lead.
As far as the swing states are concerned, the key has always been voter turnout. The more people that vote, the more likely blue wins. This is the whole reason republicans want to suppress the vote. Early voting is already indicating enormous turnout. I see people say yes but a lot of them are registered republicans forgetting that lots of republicans will be voting for Harris this time around.
Perhaps his logic is that, after you remove the "Trump is a threat to democracy, the remaining pool of potential voters skews heavily Trump. That's true, but it doesn't necessarily imply that undecided voters will skew Trump. (The reason is because undecideds are not a random sample of potential voters in the remaining pool.)
Another possible explanation is that Trump's policies are much more popular than Democratic policies, but I don't see any basis for that assumption either.
It could be among the undecided, in the same sense as the "risk for democracy". I mean if you care a lot about abortion you wouldn't be undecided i guess, even low info voters know voting dem is better than voting gop if you care about abortion being legal a lot.
The only polls released recently on 538's tracker that favor Trump are the opt-in polls that are easily influenced by link sharing, OnMessage which is conservative funded, and Redfield and Wilton. Every other one shows Harris leading (except two "evens").
Sorry I had to shrink it down to fit it.
