POG Politics Thread Version 3
Come on in! Since Dustin is taking his ball and going home, it's time to start a new politics thread.
As painfully unfunny as ever
lololololololol
Spoiler
Okay, I didn't watch it. (yet)
The All-in podcast addresses the disparity between the election polls and betting markets right out of the gate. Followed by some Elon love...
We love you but we're not listening to that, what's their take on the disparity?
People probably thinking Trump is going to over perform again despite the last 8 years and Democrats being consistently 2 pts ahead of the polls in 2022
Those dudes are great!!!
They explained that polls and betting markets are separate numbers that can't be directly compared. e.g. If you have theoretical perfect polling that knows Trump will win 51% to 49%. Polls would say that Trump leading with 51% of the vote. But the betting markets would be 100% Trump. Because the result is "known".
The betting odds more reflect the current momentum of a candidate.
A reasonable argument for Harris. I think that pollsters are accounting and adjusting for polling errors during 2016/2020 is a good point.
A reasonable argument for Harris. I think that pollsters are accounting and adjusting for polling errors during 2016/2020 is a good point.
#7 is the only remotely persuasive point to me.
Noting the party of the governor is stupid. Governors can be weird. KY and KS have D governors. VT has an R governor.
I was looking at through some of the Poly trades... There are some serious degens out there. I wouldn't be surprised if there are people with their life savings riding on this election.
I saw a guy with a big Harris bet switch to Trump. After taking a beating on Harris.
This is the worst poly since amorous.
#7 is the only remotely persuasive point to me.
Noting the party of the governor is stupid. Governors can be weird. KY and KS have D governors. VT has an R governor.
I don't even find #7 persuasive. I think that Trump is going to outperform among young voters. Which is to say he's still going to get clobbered, but not as bad as usual.
The rest of that list is hot garbage and I say that while agreeing with the conclusion.
If you're a campaign strategist, what is your closing argument for Harris? So far, it seems to be a rehash, Trump is Hitler.
The one for Trump seems to me to be easier. I'd cut a commercial as follows:
(audio - a crowd chant of "FOUR MORE YEARS", from a past convention or something, over and over)
(video: alternating shots of a grinning Harris and stuff like $6 eggs, streams of people crossing the border in Texas, etc).
That's it.
Racist transphobic misogynist is the never ending playlist.
Poops his pants seems to be making the rounds.
Generally old and incompetent and senile.
if I was Harris campaign strategist:
universal healthcare
huge tax increase on people making over 500k
huger increases as wealth increases
replace 90% of the military with infrastructure, clean energy, public transportation works
arrest bankers and other corporate scum
lead the charge to save the environment
massive affordable housing program
guarantee abortion
fix electoral college bs, and legislative branch representation
rank choice voting
end repub/dem collusion against democracy
limit all political campaigns to 2 weeks, and limit spending
free school lunches, and breakfasts
free higher education
just off the top of my head
People would look at the bill for all of that and never vote for her.
That list sounds like when school students running for student council promise pizza on Fridays and no homework if you vote for them.
smh
if a respected candidate stood for all that, they'd win in a landslide
pizza on Fridays and no homework is great! i'd vote for that
ZOMG it's over for Trump:
Pretty much...
Elon some girl some guy
This tactic isn't helping Harris.
Dr Phil showed up to MSG and announced he is backing Trump. Dr. Phil never backs anyone.
