bluffcatching potsize riverbet from UTG vs BB after c-r flop, c-c turn during deeprun
4.40$ GG mtt with 2k players, stage: last 25
opponent appears active and reggish, vpip 21%
we raise QTs from UTG with around 28bigs, opp in big who covers us completes.
on the low flop we call a small checkraise against our 20% cbet with a flushdraw.
offsuit K on the turn goes checkcheck,
then opp fires an almost potsize riverbet on a 7 blank.
I felt ugh and folded.
What hands can our opponent have here? how wild is he willing to checkraise UTG's small sizing on that flop? can he be bluffing us with a better hand [A4, A5, ...]?
Does he ever have a strong hand there like a king, a deuce, or threes full that he checks on the turn? does he valuebet the river potsize with pocket pairs?
4 Replies
does he even have missed lowcarded straight draws [that we beat, like 45, 46, 56, or missed flushdraws] in that line (or A4, A5 which we do not beat)? or would he keep barelling the turn with them on the offsuit king?
do you think 45, 46, 56, A4, A5 are in his preflop BB defending range vs UTG when he has 21% vpip?
Because Villain c/r'd the flop I think we have to check back the turn. Because if we bet the turn we might get c/r'd again. The other problem is that if we want to bluff the turn as if we have like AK with a club we might get called by hands that are double draws (like 65s/A5s/A4s/etc.) and then we have to bluff again on the river.
I think that Villain has some 2x/33 and some PP hands. The PP hands might fold to a turn bet. But our hand looks a little strange in that we called the flop bet. If we bet the turn we are basically saying we have KXs (a flush draw that hit the K). We are going to fold AK a lot there on the flop. The other thing is that if we have a PP only KK and AA would really feel comfortable betting the turn. Other PP's would have to worry that Villain could have KXs so a check back looks good and we will be tempted to call a river bet.
The other problem is that Villain c/r'd an amount that is < 3x (I would expect sizing around 3.5x to 4x). This almost looks like a very strong hand.
A different problem is that Villain can have 77. So many potential problems.
But given the river bet sizing, which is polarized, Villain can be bluffing. However, we might lose to the bluff. Lol. So I think your fold was a very good idea.
Do you know anything about villain? Is he any good?
In a $4.40 I wouldn't expect too much clever play.
A good villain here, though, might recognize you don't have 2x or 3x basically ever, so could be check-raising with a range of gutshots or double backdoors (something like Xd4d), and against that sizing could include straight draws, flush draws. They'll also recognize you don't have Kx when you check the turn through, and the river bet could just be to push you off a medium pocket pair or ace high. Or they could have something goofy that turned into a big hand on later streets (K3 in some fashion, Kc7c / Kd7d, even 77 could do this sometimes).
I'm thinking about the flop action here, too. This late in the tournament I don't think b20 is ever too bad, but it's the kind of bet that might encourage a good player to play back at you like this, so I wonder if sizing up is better. Even as played, I might consider betting the turn. (I think there's a better case for it in ICM-land, since taking the pot down has more value than it would otherwise, and prevents you from getting bluffed off the pot.) I don't really have a solver option for this late in the tournament, so I'm just going by my gut on that.
And, of course, he could just have it.
I don't think your hand is good enough to bluff catch. Losing to Ax wheel hands that are trying to bluff out better Ax and your pocket pairs is a big reason. I don't know if he'd turn those into bluffs, but in any case, you want a bluff catcher to beat all the bluffs, and I'm not sure yours does. (How horrible would it be if he turned over QdJd?)
no showdowns from villain but I felt he's playing back at us [this hand, then 3betfolding vs chipleader's open, then another hand].
let's assume he's good so that I can improve my understanding against that kind of players.
let's start with b20. what sizing are we talking about? b50 instead? does that make it more safe to not be played back [by that kind of good players trying to exploit you]? these plays occur more often deep in my tournaments.
I felt like betting the turn during the hand but had not much time to act.
so let's say we're betfolding, what sizing do we choose? b25 to fold out his air that we're not willing to bluffcatch with our hand on the river? or b50 to maybe sometimes also fold out 3x, pockets, Ax wheels, stuff like that.
I really wanted to bluffcatch him but no matter how long I stared at my hand it didn't become an ace high bluffcatcher.
another question: if he chose to checkraise flop with bluffy hands and then the offsuit king drops off, wouldn't he keep barelling? or is it legit for him to go into checkraise, check, bet pot on river line with his bluffs? maybe because we're shallow stacked.
and if he actually had something strong on the flop [not 77] or Kx and he's good, would he barrel turn?
So altogether Im right that this kind of good player would end up overbluffing in this exploitative "playing back" line and that we can bluffcatch him here with anything that is at least ace high?
do you see his small flop raise indicative of him searching a cheap bluff [against b20]?
I checked it in my free version of gtoWIZ and the solver plays it exactly like me [in chipEV], but I dont think the solver would play villain's hand in the same way as he did 😃
so the last point, him valuebetting his [high] pockets potsize on river because he expects a lot of light bluffcatching would be too overkill thoughtprocess in that situation in that tournament?
