WSOP ME: AQ triple barrel

Board is horrible for your range, and any pro will realize that. I think you're right that you would have heard from a set but he could easily be calling down with TT/JJ after flatting the UTG open and your squeeze.

I would never play it this way (I probably check/fold the turn) but then I really like your bluffing style.

Given you have As its a good bluff spot. Your bet sizing on the river at over pot is very polarized so you either have the nut flush, AA, KK, possibly QQ or a bluff. Because you made a solid value bet size on the turn it really looks like an overpair or a nut flush draw. So the river jam is hard to call with JJ/TT.

Hope you won the hand and get into the money.

Ugh, disregard my earlier reply. I read the hand too quickly and missed two key pieces of info: the third spade on the river, and the fact that UTG folded and villain is the CO.

That changes everything. Villain's range is certainly capped, so you have QQ-AA that he can't have, plus the As to help represent the nut flush. Even though you identified him as passive postflop, it would be very unusual for him to play a set this way. I would expect him to raise the turn with a set, and I don't see him getting to the river with 55.

If he called this down with a hand like TT/JJ, he might have had a read on you.

Pure spew to me - you're very deep in one of the best value 10ks out there - can easily chip up uncontested with minimal risk. The problem here is they can have a set, and even if he has say TT I'm not really thrilled to try to get him to fold over the turn/river. You would need this to work at such a high frequency to justify it and I don't think it comes close.

I don't see why Villain can't have a set. He has position, and can easily win a big pot just calling until you stop betting. There is very little to fear on that board.

Pokerfan655....I often hear that narrative of 'can easily chip up'. I agree it is the softest 10K, but even in soft tournaments, you don't just get to chip up without risk. Even at soft tables, you will have some tough players, and the bad players, well, they can do something stupid that costs you your tournament life.

Thanks for the replies.

So what happened was villain tanked for about a minute and a half and said it was a sick spot and that he wasn't slow rolling. He said "either you have a flush or nothing". He eventually called with Js 9s.

I spoke with another player who was at the table a few days later. He commented that he folded a flush on the river in a similar spot and was shown the naked Ace of spades and said that he wouldn't fold in that spot again.

That's quite unlucky. You ran into one of the few flush combos that make any sense (well, not much given the preflop action.)

He definitely can have a set, but he shouldn't. For one thing, he has no reason to expect Hero to keep blasting away given the information we have. Second, there are plenty of river cards that can kill any hope villain has of getting more value, even if they aren't a direct threat. This is one of the reasons why the solver never slowplays - it adopts a strategy of getting value when it can. So villain should raise turn.

What does slowplay even mean, really?

I mean from a Nash equilibrium perspective.

Unless you can connect a concept with any of the following, then youre not being grounded with the the math reality of the game; you might as well be speaking in mystical incantations

• interrange interactions (relative tiers of strength augmented by blocker effects)
  
• intrarange interactions (relative widths of the tiers of strength and weakness)
  
• auxiliary forces including spr and icm
  

even words like strength, weakness, value etc have no real meaning the way theyre commonly used, they have no precision and no grounding in mathematical reality and o they are meaningless.

this is what is actually means to "play gto"--it means a framework that completely turns the standard (another dumb concept, as if its good to be "standard" in a zero sum game that you pay rake to play) understanding upside down

Here's a few things that I think are complete bullshit:

"

• "standard" is good and something to strive for
  
• pot committment is a real thing
  
• the words "never", "always", and even "should" are appropriate assessment tools for what strategy to implement
  
• opportunity cost is a generally a valid and robust way to justify risk averseness
  
• "I don't want to bet because what if I get raises" is like ever a valid statement
  

You 3! preflop. It is a low board, so you were representing an overpair. When the flush hits, you are representing a backdoor flush. So you changed what you were representing on the river. It isn't very credible, so I am not surprised you got called by TPWK.

V had a flush lol was a good bluff by op with the As, can easily rep a flop cbet and barrel turn nfd.

Preflop oop i would go bigger like 18-21k

Yeah, you had a blocker, but still a problem barreling on a low flop as the preflop raiser and barreling when the flush card hits. You aren't changing what you are representing

The blocker reduces the number of flushes villain can have, but it villain is never folding a flush, particularly to the previous action. This isn't PLO. The purpose of the shove is only to get him off one pair hands. It is unlikely he folds better than a pair.

The story is you cbet with air, barreled with a backdoor flush draw, and hit a flush on the river. Hard to know if he folds much that he got to the turn with.

Do you think Villain will hang on with 9x on the river? Based on his preflop call with J9s, he surely has that, as well as T9, 98, that are all one pair. Some of those will still be in Villain's range; therefore we can be betting overpairs (probably not as a shove) on the river.

Yeah, it will get folds from one pair, but not sure if from more than one pair. It depend on villain's reads. The line just doesn't seem to make sense, so will be called lighter.

The line doesn't appear to make sense, so villain could call down with like a 9 or TT, not believing you have a big pair or a flush, since you go from representing one to representing the other. Yes, one pair will sometimes fold.

Not sure I understand this reasoning. If Villain can call with 9x or TT, then we should be betting our best overpairs for value, especially AA with a spade, which blocks his flushes as well as gets values from his bluff catchers.

Call pre

Flop is probably too small, we have a big overpair advantage here and a lot of hands that really want to start getting money in right away.

Turn size is ok-ish but our specific hand kind of wants to check, our hand is actually kind of too good to bluff with, you’re actually blocking some of his turn auto-folds, and you likely don’t get too much better to fold to that size anyway - unless villian is super passive which I saw a lot of in the main. (Even from good experienced players.)

River is meh, I guess if we get here we’re probably supposed to go big but you probably accomplish a lot of the same effects with something like 50-66% pot. Even in the main I don’t think a lot of the top of range villain has is gonna fold to a jam so you might as well target the weaker part of the call down range.

Yeah I actually think this is a more-or-less standard value line with AA even with the flush coming in.

Yeah I actually think this is a more-or-less standard value line with AA even with the flush coming in.