folding top pair top kicker on flop threeway

You have the A diamonds, so CO has a lot less diamond draws. But still? CO either has 88 or 55 or you are ahead of him -- maybe way ahead. I can't see AA/KK/QQ being in CO's range here at these effective stacks. I expect to see KTdd, JTdd, J9dd, KJdd a lot here. Also expect to see some AQ for chops -- and you getting a backdoor freeroll. But you are also probably going to see a bunch of KQs (and maybe QJs?). I know you need to worry about UTG too, so I get the fold. But I think that's a good board for UTG to c-bet, even against 2 opponents. So, pretty sure I call here.

UTG's tight stats (9% rfi overall) may suggest his UTG range is made out of a lot QQ, KK, AA, AQ, ...

having cutoff possibly being able to categorise that, with the BB (me) also in the hand on a wet flop, would he want to raise his flushdraws aiming for fold equity against two opps?

cutoff's queens will normally be outkicked by UTG's queens, so if he realizes that, he has less incentive to raise anything below AQ (and even that) on the flop.

I came to the conclusion that most of the time we're in bad shape and folded [also out of position].

We're sometimes ahead, for example if cutoff raises some flushdraw or straight + flushdraw.

I wondered in such a case about the optimal play in cutoff's shoes (also if he had a nutflushdraw or if we were deeper stacked, and assuming a more standard UTG rfi range). Maybe someone knows.

With the benefit of hindsight, UTG's b/f on the flop suggests you mis-ranged him. What's your sample size on him?

it's his gg stats of all the hands in that tourney, up to that point sufficiently significant 150 or so.

he must have folded AK or JJ or TT and so on.

You only have 15xBB. I would shove preflop. As played gii on the flop.

@deuce

Ive 18 bigs [it always shows my stack after the hand]

Ill never shove there since utg had 9% pfr over all positions, not to speak of how tight he's gonna be from utg

the whole story, also postflop, is based on that dynamic. on gg, we all see the same stats [vpip, pfr, , ats, 3bet] on eachother. that means cutoff also possibly adapted

only if we knew that cutoff did not adapt Id consider shoving flop

GG gives HUD stats for all players? And I think you said it's just for the current tourney? Interesting. That does change things a bit. I usually never assume my opponents have stats, unless I know them to be skilled.

Think I still get it in on flop though. Don't see the point of calling pf with 18bbs, if we are going to muck AQo on a Q high flop with no completed 5 card hands.

Yeah obv there's a reason why I put it out for discussion 😀

So about the flop, in every other scenario we don't fold of course, bet raise is pretty much the only one where I'm willing to consider it, but I'm not sure about the dynamic in that spot

Yep, reluctantly going with this too at this stack depth, probably shove pre even vs someone who has been nitty this tournament, could have had bad distribution

Raise can be a weaker Q or a flush draw. A set might flat call on the flop. I would definitely gii to the raise.

I want to know how average opponent (cutoff, somewhat reggish) is reasoning here.

Is it

{we're shallow stacked, I've around 50+% equity, thus let's get it in right here and now}?

For example, if he flopped decently with KQ (top pair) or JTdd (combo draw)?

There are no logical two-pairs, so we are only worried about sets. Preflop raiser is short stacked and pot committed.

You called to flop A or Q, actually Q is better cause if there was an A you are still fccked by AK. This is like a nut flop for you. Sets are super rare, shoving all the time and sometimes crying

okay, so my final thoughts:

cutoff has a lot of KK and AA in his range. reasons:

three reshoving stacks in next positions
utg minraising when he couldve shoved, thus utg has either some bottom of range hand that he will fold against a shove, or a strong hand that he will get in anyway post against cutoff

thats already a lot of combos that are ahead of us and that will like to hit the gas on the flop.

then it's reasonable to assume cutoff as an average opp of population will simply sometimes raise and sometimes flatcall holdings like KQ or JTdd on the flop with different reasons he may give himself [for raising, for example denying equity] or different feelings he may have.

so his range will look like

1) hands we'd like him to have:

{KQ, QJs} 10 combos
{JTdd, J9dd, T9dd, KJdd, KTdd} 5 combos

that makes 15 combos that in (estimated) 50% of the cases go into this line,
thus 7.5 combos

2) hands we're more or less indifferent him to have:

{AQ} 8 combos

3) hands we'd not like him to have:

{AA, KK, 55, 88} 15 combos

which I believe will in 75% of the cases go into this line,
hence around 11 combos.

11 combos > 7.5 combos and we easily fold.

KQoff may not even be in his preflop range here, of his one paired Qx holdings the frequency of him raising them on the flop will be greater toward stronger kickers (AQ much more often than QJs)

and UTG is left to act (he's pot committed, but either he's unaware of it, then it's irrelevant, and if he's aware of it, then he's much more likely to cbet a very strong hand than JJ or AK)

hence we fold flop

Nah man, it doesn't make much sense premium pre, random open with 10bb UTG, u gotta give him some credit for a hand that would hapilly play for stack, so they will just do it, even AK, AQ, ecc..

IMHO you were flipping vs a monster draw FD + GS/OESD maybe sets

for the b.i and stacks it could be KQ JQ.

If you think he was adapting to UTG, he would definetively jam monster hands, who would be a nit and fold his 10bb utg open with such strong range

Even so, I think you have to gii at these stakes this deep. Just my opinion

I’d only consider folding if there was a 3bet pre. You can’t just assign KK AA after a min open plus even so, it’s not the river we’re discussing, the decision is made on the flop, you gii and get another Q later, easy as that

Whenever overthinking a post flop spot like this, keep in mind that sometimes you have to give yourself a chance with a 6th best hand, expose yourself and double up https://youtube.com/shorts/2_1ba8oxFWI?s...

welp @asdamo

50/50 that cutoff is somewhat adapting. my last post was quite independent of it though.

hard to estimate how many slowplays of premiums cutoff is going to have. I gave two reasons for them, you gave one against. I myself would slowplay as cutoff - three shoving stacks behind is a lot.

Why is utg minraising his 10BB stack? He could have AJs or something, and who knows how rando utg is going to react to a shove. He may just outright fold it pre. So slowplaying a premium will keep utg's bottom range stuff like AJs, ATs, KQs, TT, 99 in there.

Is utg actually going to open raise AK there? Probably not, AK will oftenly be a shove.

So utg's minraising range will be something along premiums (AA, KK, QQ, (JJ))) and AJs, ATs, KQs, TT, 99
[somewhat guessing into the dark, but that's all we can do]

Say you're cutoff and you wake up with AA. There's no problem in flatting instead of getting it in immediately, if UTG has a strong hand himself like KK, they will get it in postflop anyway for the remaining 10 bigs like always,

and if UTG has something like AJs or KQs, then we'd like him to flop a pair and then get it in postflop.

utg had 14% vpip and 9% pfr over around 150hands,

now I think we can somewhat confidently estimate his real pfr after that sample size to be in the range of 4% to 14%, so the top end of it isn't that tight after all (the bottom end is really tight though).

out of curiosity I checked a similar situation in chipEV for 20bigblind stacks in gtowiz, here's cutoff's strategy after utg's open:

yeah, even gtowiz is flatting KK and AA with almost 100% frequency here

This is a 4.40, very few if any players will be playing GTO or close to it

just showing that gtowiz is doing it, thus it may have a reason, and this reason may also be legit outside of gto.

so players can be doing it based on the same or any other reason, even if theyre not playing gto.

flats of premiums of decent players (even at these stakes many decent players can be found and their profiles, stats and plays make them somewhat identifiable) arent out of this world and can occur

exploitative framework or not, flatting is much better here imo than going for it pre

I'm careful with AJ-AQ 15bb+ pre as I ran into AK so many times, I'm into flatting aswell

as for the flop, getting it in even when I "know" I'm behind cause even if this time I am, 3/4 of other situations I'm ahead or at least even

It's close