Mystery bounty strategy early-mid stage once itm (bounties in play)
I'm playing these mass field mystery bounties on GG and seems like once your ITM (bounties in play) to the mid stages (let's say 4% of the field left) the top 5% stacks were just vpiping close to 100%. And these were guys with a few M in their total winnings, so just wondering if that is the correct strategy.
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No one has studied this spot? Thought maybe when stacks are still relatively small compared to the bounties ;if you’re the big stack we should play close to 100% vpip as if it was like the bubble of a normal tourney.
Since no one else has responded I will attempt to answer. I haven't studied mystery bounty tournaments in depth but I've had good results when I occasionally play them.
The way I approach it is to calculate the average value of a mystery bounty in chip equivalence.
This is slightly complicated but you calculate a ratio. The portion of your buy-in that goes to the prize pool (1st place, second place, etc.) over the amount of starting chips is a ratio equivalent to the mean value of a mystery bounty over X. Then you solve for X which tells you how many chips an average mystery bounty is worth.
You then alter your strategy appropriately. If you are a big stack and there are lots of tiny stacks on the table then it could make sense to open close to 100%. The idea is that the average value of the mystery bounty is so much greater than the amount of chips you have to risk that you're getting a good price to gamble against the short stacks even when your hands are pretty trashy.
The part of the whole picture that I don't fully understand is how future game value factors into the equation. When you take - chip EV spots to go after + $ EV bounties it's going to cause your chip stack to decrease on average. In turn you'll end up with less future opportunities for mystery bounties. I think this is relevant, but since I don't fully understand the ramifications I typically just make decisions based on the odds as I outlined above, and if it's close I pass on the spot due to the future game issue.
there's also the effect of maany opps playing yolo getting it in when they cover you, so there's maaaassive chipEV for you
and a ton of future situations you can take for mystery bounties whose average may increase or decrease, but is expected to stay the same.
I dont know how weak you really want to call off when you cover people, since I havent found any reliable source on that yet (havent really searched too), but I used a technique to value mysteries in chips in the few mysteries I played and sensible future game considerations
/opinion/ the sole existence of so called “mystery bounty” is detrimental to online poker overall. I’m only referring to its nature, if you crack them that’s good and gl, GG is cancer tho, fckng legislation ruined everything/opinion/
Yeah that’s pretty normal in those spots. Once ITM in bounty-heavy games, some regs just mash to maximize coinflip value and grab bounties. You can chill a bit, don’t need to go 100% yourself unless you’re really short
