Facing Pot-Size All-in Bet on River with KQo Two-Pair on a Semi-Wet Board
Playing an online MTT, just got moved to this table, and I have no hand history on the villain, this is one of the first 3-4 hands we played on this table when this spot comes up.
I'm curious how to analyze this hand based on opponent range assumptions, whether the result would be different if I'm assuming Villain is opening 10 vs. 20 vs. 30 % of their range, etc. but here's the hand:
400/800 (100 ante) NL Hold'em MTT
Stacks:
UTG: 76.34 BB
UTG+1: 115.38 BB
LJ (Villain): 44.24 BB
HJ: 32.44 BB
CO (Hero): 100.91 BB
BTN: 42.75 BB
SB: 30.03 BB
BB: 47.76 BB
Preflop:
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds,
LJ (Villain) raises to 2.1 BB with K♦ Q♠,
HJ folds, CO(Hero) calls, BTN folds, SB folds, BB calls.
Flop (7.8 BB): Q♣ 9♠ 6♣
BB checks, LJ (Villain) bets 3.5 BB, CO(Hero) calls, BB folds.
Turn (14.8 BB): K♠
LJ (Villain) bets 7.9 BB, CO(Hero) Calls 7.9BB
River (30.6 BB): 9♦
Villain jams 30.61 BB All-in;
CO(Hero) ???
See Below for Results:
Spoiler
Showdown:
CO shows K♠ Q♦ (top two pair, kings and queens).
Villain shows A♣ 9♣ (trip nines with ace kicker).
Result:
CO wins 91.83 BB pot.
2 Replies
What stage of the tournament is this? 3-betting pre might be better.
I might just jam the turn with so many draws out there.
River is difficult because you now lose to AA, but I would have a tough time folding.
if he's opening 10% or 30% does change things a little bit, but a player who's opening 10% will unlikely be of the kind who's gonna go for yolo bluffs postflop, thus he'll likely be strong. if he's opening wide, he'll have a lot of JT, 9x and so on, maaany strong hands.
let's just assume he's an avg opponent in these lowstakes, and we'll be somewhat covering all cases already.
1) would he bluff into you?
you have a lot of 9x, JTs, Kx (KJ, KT, ... ) that called flop and usually also turn in your range on the river.
into such a strong range, when weaker holdings make up much less of it, one doesn't want to bluff into.
(in vacuum much fewer bluffs have to be expected here too since you started out 3way on the flop, and he's playing vs you in the cutoff, not the big who can have much more weakish hands)
2) would he valuebet weaker hands into you?
he goes for pot on the river, if he had a one paired king type of hand that you beat he'd want to target something like a queen, and then he'd never go for pot in this spot.
