WSOP $1K Online - A few overbet spots I faced

first hand

BB isn't checkraising an ace on turn threeway when it's so obvious you're having (at least) one (potentially strong) ace as UTG, so we're not calling for a split on river.

on the other hand, it's fairly reasonable for him to sit there with a very strong holding on turn and check it, thinking an ace will bet anyway so he'll get to checkraise for more value.

his turnvalue is {6x, 555}

with the third 6 on river we sucked out on 555 which he may turn into a bluff now.

if he for some reason raised some bluff or draw on turn (very unlikely), it's so obvious at latest on river that he'll be up against an ace that no one will try to bluff us off sixes full of aces as pretty much the second nuts pre quad sixes. [on top, we kind of sometimes may also have aces full, 6x, 555]

as BB, even though just one six is left in the deck, he can still have many 6x combos, suited and offsuit.

since he's not bluffing he's beating us with quad 6666 like always and hence we like a fold.

First hand I would likely be folding to the turn c/r. In general I fold to the river jam because we are risking 32 bb's to make 14 and best case is Villain has an A. So we would have to chop like 70% of the time to break even. But since we are UTG why would Villain c/r turn with an A? We can easily have AK/AQ. In a situation where say there was a K on board and not a 5 then I think Villain can have a lot of Ax hands and I would likely call. In theory Villain can have 55 but I don't think they would be bluffing all of the time because we likely have an A.

Second hand again its a chop at best if we call so we are looking to win 6.25 bb's or lose 28 if Villain has a J. This does look like a bluff because Villain didn't bet the turn but then Villain could have had a J and likes making this look like a bluff. I typically fold here because are we really chopping 75% of the time?

In fairness to reality I probably over fold in these spots.

for fives 555 he can have 3 combos and even on river, when there is just one six left, he can have 20-25 combos of 6x.

as long as he did not bluffraise anything else on turn, he may bluff his fives 100% of time and we'll still let go of our ace

I dont think there's much bluffing by villain here, whether fives or draws, in all cases:

hero vs villain: 1) rec vs rec 2) rec vs reg 3) reg vs rec 4) reg vs reg

since we somewhat reasoned ourselves to fold an ace, and BB appears to have many sixes, perhaps he gets to bluff more than we presumed?

1) to 3) are pretty clear and covered above, closest imaginable case is 4) reg vs reg.

I doubt reg villain's gameplan on turn having around 50 combos of sixes and 50+ combos of bluffs (78, 79, 89, flushdraws, ...) will be to barrel out hero's most likely holding, an ace, by checkraising turn and barrelling pot on river when hero will get odds to call with any bluffcatcher. reg villain would be up against a still uncapped range and subject to high reverse implied odds if he hits his draw.

having 555, being sucked out on with the third six on river, it's the only case where he may consider going for a bluff (if they ended up there and reg hero didn't fold on turn to checkraise), since reg hero wont put him on any missed draws but a six and six only - or three combos of 555, which are far too few.

second hand

I don't think he's bluffing since he'll risk a lot to push you out when you'll call with a J or QJ.

He may not even achieve his goal and sometimes risk all these chips for a split, so high risk low reward if you bluffcatch and dont believe.

on turn you can have a lot of QJ and play it deceivingly to get max value from a J on river.

A J may also not always want to bet since villain may not really cap himself with his turncheck.

Straights may not want to play this board too face up, whether villain or hero.

balancing not loosing too much when behind, with winning more when ahead

on the other hand,

it's perfectly reasonable for him to sit there with QJ on river and be like "oh, perfect chance to make it look bluffy" and jam targeting your whole range.

maybe sometimes he does think that you're much less likely to have QJ there since you did not bet turn, then he might jam his J striving for

1) you could bluffcatch with nothing

2) you could fold a J and he gets you off a split,

both are nice results, when in

3) you only call with a J,

he doesn't loose anything (as long as it's not QJ which he thinks as unlikely).

So I think, he's on a J or QJ

Hand #1 such a weird spot, could get behind betting 1/4 on flop or checking, betting turn or checking back. so many legit paths through this hand and who knew V would c/r then pile.

Bet turn hand #2, we have plenty of Jx

As played, tempted to call hand 1, dumping hand 2

These are tough. Villains seem sharp.

Hand 1 - villain could be turning 55 into a bluff (or some semi-bluff turn hand), but it depends on whether they think they can get you to fold your face-up Ax. Some villains might think there's no chance you fold a boat, others will think that you know they know you have Ax and they're going for it anyway. Hard to say. I guess I lean call because who ever has quads, but the turn line screams 6x expecting you or UTG+1 to bet the ace. (But then, 55 is in the same spot; it's just a question of whether or not he gives up with it.)

As oldsilver suggested, I wouldn't mind checking back the turn - there's little value you're getting from worse hands at this point (other than some worse Ax, and you'll chop sometimes there), and if you river the flush you might win a big one if someone also has spades (I think they're less likely to continue the turn with a spade draw between the paired board and knowing their pair outs can't be live, unless it's a combo draw).

Hand 2 - I probably just fold; since you're calling to chop, you have to be good so often (28BB to win 6.25; I estimated it was over 80%, it's 81.75% to break even) to make it worth it. Betting the turn is probably a good idea as you're telegraphing you don't have a jack when you don't. It certainly could be an attempt to bluff you off a chop, but there isn't enough info as played, and I could see him checking the turn with Jx after you call the flop. I just think the level of confidence you have to have here is so high that unless you have a really strong reason to think he doesn't play Jx this way, you fold.

second hand

why is it telegraphing not having a jack?

maybe betting jack is best play for hero (is it?), I feel like it's not obvious so villain may have reason to assume hero may easily misplay (if it is a misplay) his jack by checking it, so hero may still have jacks in his eyes.

if it was telegraphing not having a jack, maybe it would be worth it?

first hand

just 55 isnt enough, it's 3 combos vs 20-25 combos of 6x.

for hero to call him off on river, villain does need more semibluffs he raised on turn - but would he raise any of them? at least 10 more semibluff combos are needed.

first hand

also an important consideration,

if villain tried to bluff hero on turn and hasn't been succesful to fold out hero's hand (ace+), why would he assume to be able to achieve it on river when things changed for the worse:

he still has all his (potential) bluffs,

all missed,

and with another 6 on river his 6x combos went in half

Because most people will bet a jack here because they have more than 2x pot to play and want to try to get all the money in by the river.

I'd certainly be more inclined to overbet shove the river as a bluff if my opponent didn't bet the turn than if they did.

I mean, are you saying villain isn't bluffing because they will assume hero is likely enough to check a jack here? I'm not sure what your overall point is.

that's a crucial consideration for sure.

it's not a jam that is flying into a capped off 1st and 2nd nuts range - hero will oftenly have J, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see occasionally some hero have QJ.

I would check a J all night long. Villain may be trying a sneaky checkraise or checkcall with QJ. If I bet J for pot or half pot, what is going to call me? sets and two pairs have some 10% or 20%ish equity vs J (pockets may have been reshoved pre too). If board pairs, we're not going to gift chips to our opponent. If he doesn't improve, he's not going either. maybe he had 9x and will bluff but would fold to our bet now. if a bet flies in by hero on turn, is it ever a bluff in villain's eyes?

don't see a way to get chips in when ahead by betting turn and river with a single J.

I had a look how baseline is here after SB's lead on flop and CO's call.

First villain starts out pretty balanced on turn and checks J and QJ sometimes

then we also oftenly check a J and sometimes, though more seldom, even QJ

now villain uses two sizings on river, a more bluffy jam that has few J and no QJ, and an 80% pot bet which has more J and most QJ. Sometimes he checks J and QJ one more time.

I think it's different in reality, his jam wont be bluffy. In his shoes I'd never jam a bluff, just knowing that someone in this disguising war may have a Joker too often, it feels like harakiri

after villain's turn check, getting chips in by the river works in baseline by betting two streets only for QJ, which is balanced with many bluffs

villain defends all his J and QJ and almost nothing else

with jacks we'd widen our value range too far

if someone's wondering -

if villain checkraises hero's one third turn bet, he does it in baseline with QJ, some J, flushdraws, gutshots and pure bluffs

and then hero ends up calling him down with any jack on the river